Morning Coffee: Darnold, Vikings Shatter Expectations With Perfect Start

The first four weeks of the NFL season have been full of surprises.

Underdogs of seven points or more are 5-2 straight up and 6-1 against the spread this season.

Underdogs of five points or more are 11-11 straight up and a ridiculous 18-4 against the spread.

On Sunday, the Denver Broncos matched the second-largest upset of the season based on the closing spread at FanDuel, beating the New York Jets 10-9 as a 7.5-point underdog.

Somehow, the Broncos have now won three straight games as an underdog of at least seven points dating back to last season.

After a big win in New York, the spread for next week’s game against the Las Vegas Raiders is Denver -2.5.

Meanwhile, there’s one team that has overachieved above all others through the first four weeks.

The Minnesota Vikings beat the Green Bay Packers as a +118 moneyline underdog at FanDuel on Sunday to improve to 4-0 straight up and against the spread.

FanDuel set Minnesota’s pre-season win total at 7.5.

As of Sunday afternoon, the Vikings are already halfway to hitting the over and like so many of their various futures, their in-season adjusted win total is in the move.

This is the Morning Coffee for Monday September 30th, 2024.

Darnold, Vikings Shatter Expectations With Perfect Start

The Vikings are the first team in the Super Bowl era to start 4-0 despite not being more than a 1.5-point favourite in any of their first four games.

Minnesota closed -1.5 at FanDuel ahead of its Week 1 win over the New York Giants.

Since then, the Vikings upset the San Francisco 49ers as a four-point underdog, the Houston Texans as a 1.5-point underdog, and then the rival Packers on Sunday as a 2.5-point underdog.

Minnesota is the lone remaining undefeated ATS team in the league.

Sam Darnold and company are covering by an average of 15.9 points per game – the highest mark by a team to start 4-0 straight up and against the spread since the 2007 New England Patriots.

The outstanding start has led to some major adjustments at FanDuel.

The Vikings are down to +1700 to win the Super Bowl from +8000 entering Week 1.

Minnesota’s in-season adjusted win total is up from 7.5 to 11.5 at FanDuel this morning. 

While such a significant adjustment might seem like an overreaction at first glance, it’s important to remember that the Vikings have already emerged from their toughest stretch of the season with a perfect record.

The Vikings were underdogs against the 49ers, Texans, and the Packers.

Minnesota is currently -2.5 for Sunday’s game against the Jets.

The Vikings will wrap a difficult six-game stretch to open the year at home against the Detroit Lions in Week 6.

After that, Minnesota will play the Los Angeles Rams, Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Chicago Bears, Arizona Cardinals, and the Atlanta Falcons in that order.

Considering what we’ve seen from the Vikings on both sides of the football, nobody should be shocked if they go 8-5 the rest of the way, especially considering that schedule.

Darnold is the second choice to win NFL Comeback Player of the Year at FanDuel behind only Rodgers.

Darnold and Rodgers will meet in Minnesota on Sunday.

Darnold to win NFL regular season MVP is down from 100-to-1 to +1100 as the fifth choice to win that award this morning. 

Only Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, C.J. Stroud, and Lamar Jackson have shorter odds at FanDuel.

Meanwhile, Justin Jefferson is the third choice to win NFL Offensive Player of the Year at +550 at FanDuel.

He’s scored a touchdown in all four games this season.

Kevin O’Connell is the favourite to win NFL Coach of the Year as the offensive play-caller, while Brian Flores is among the favourites to win Assistant Coach of the Year as the defensive play-caller.

Considering how dominant they have looked to date, it’s clear that regression is inevitable for Minnesota.

I’m just not sure it comes this Sunday in London in their most favourable match-up since Week 1.

My key takeaway with the Vikings is that both their players and their coaches are undervalued, and as a team Minnesota might be better than the sum of its parts.

Week 4 isn’t even over yet, but I’m not going to waste any time locking in my first FanDuel Best Bet for Week 5.

Give me the Vikings at -130 on the moneyline against the Jets.

I’m counting on Minnesota to continue to exceed expectations and push their perfect record to 5-0 straight up and against the spread in Week 5.

A FanDuel Best Bet For Monday Night Football

It’s an unusual time when I lock in a FanDuel Best Bet for Week 5 before Week 4.

Let’s rewind and look at what the Detroit Lions want to do against the Seattle Seahawks in one of two editions of Monday Night Football on TSN.

The Lions have been bet up from -3.5 to -4.5 at FanDuel.

The Seahawks defence is missing some key pieces in its front-seven and that could potentially cost them even more against an opponent that is determined to run the football again and again and again.

David Montgomery has averaged 77.0 yards on 17.0 carries through the first three weeks of the season.

Jahmyr Gibbs has averaged 69.0 yards on 13.3 carries.

After behind held to 20 points or fewer in back-to-back games against the Buccaneers and Cardinals, I expect Dan Campbell and Ben Johnson to come out running early and often against a banged-up Seattle front-seven.

When these teams met last year, Montgomery ran for 67 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries.

The Lions differed on the opening kick-off, but Montgomery still ran for 19 yards in the first quarter.

Detroit has leaned on Montgomery on the early drives in each of their first two wins, as he ran for 33 yards in the first quarter of a Week 1 win over the Rams and then 39 yards in the first quarter of last week’s win over Arizona.

As mentioned, I expect the Lions to come out with a strong rushing attack and try to establish a specific tone for this game from the outset.

I’ll take Montgomery over 13.5 first-quarter rushing yards at -115 as my FanDuel Best Bet for Monday Night Football.

Have a great day, everyone!