Morning Coffee: Will Saints upset the Chiefs on Monday Night Football?

The underdog is always hungry.

In the NFL, hunger breeds greatness.

We witnessed a couple of examples of that once again on Sunday.

The Arizona Cardinals were the biggest underdog on the board at FanDuel at +7.5 on the road against the NFC West rival San Francisco 49ers.

Arizona trailed San Francisco 23-10 at the half.

However, the Cardinals defence didn’t allow another score the rest of the way, which opened the door for Kyler Murray and the offence to rally for the 24-23 victory as a +265 moneyline underdog.

It was the 49ers’ second loss this season after leading by double-digits in the fourth quarter.

While comeback win was unfolding, Daniel Jones led the New York Giants to a 29-20 win over the Seattle Seahawks as a seven-point underdog at FanDuel.

The Giants closed +245 to capture their first road win versus an opponent that entered the week with a winning record since 2022 at FanDuel.

The fact that they did it without super rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers in the lineup makes the win even more impressive for New York.

Six of the seven biggest underdogs this season have won outright.

The seven outright wins by underdogs of seven points or more this season is the most through Week 5 since 1974.

If you bet every seven-point underdog on the moneyline, you would be up 19.4 units on the season.

Of course, you wouldn’t have won your Week 4 bet on the Los Angeles Chargers to upset the Kansas City Chiefs with an outright win as a 7.5-point underdog.

However, you would have won if you bet the Chargers to cover the spread.

Underdogs of five or more points are a remarkable 20-4 against the spread so far this season. 

Will that trend continue on Monday Night Football? 

This is the Morning Coffee for Monday October 7th, 2024.

Will Saints Upset The Chiefs On Monday Night Football?

Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs remain the favourite to win the Super Bowl at +500 at FanDuel this morning.

Kansas City opened -6.5 for tonight’s game against the New Orleans Saints at FanDuel.

That number has since been bet down to Chiefs -5.5.

Mahomes is 6-10 ATS all-time in prime-time games at Arrowhead Stadium.

While Kansas City has developed a reputation as a team that you can trust to win but not cover, they’ve certainly done a good job early at 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS this season.

Meanwhile, the Saints are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as a road underdog.

However, Derek Carr is 0-5 ATS in his last five prime-time games, including 0-3 ATS in prime-time since he arrived in New Orleans.

As I highlighted above, NFL underdogs of five points or more are a ridiculous 20-4 ATS this season.

Considering what we just saw from the Cardinals and Giants on the road as big underdogs on Sunday, it’s certainly tempting to take the points with the Saints.

However, there’s another wager that I locked in earlier in the week that I still like for Monday Night Football.

I’ll lock in Kareem Hunt 40+ rushing yard as my FanDuel Best Bet for Monday Night Football.

One of the most important things to remember about the Chiefs is the way that they morphed into a power running team with Isiah Pacheco as their feature back.

Kansas City is already down Pacheco, Rashee Rice, and Marquise Brown due to injuries.

While it’s tempting to look at some of their remaining wide receivers and tight ends to help shoulder the load, the reality is that this team’s best chance of success is to focus on what it does best and stick to the run game with Mahomes working play-action and using his legs to move the sticks.

Hunt isn’t Pacheco, but he did average 4.9 yards per carry while rushing for 69 yards on 14 attempts in last week’s win over the Chargers.

The Saints defence has allowed the seventh-most rushing yards per attempt through the first four weeks.

With Hunt’s rushing attempts prop at 11.5, I felt comfortable locking in 40+ rushing yards knowing that he will get there with around 4.0 yards per carry if he runs the ball 10 to 12 times.

Last week, the Chiefs tried to throw the ball early against the Chargers and the results were disastrous as they turned the ball over on their first two possessions and then punted on their next three drives.

While I still expect a decent mix of run and pass, I like Hunt to have a big game under the bright lights against a defence that could be vulnerable against the run.

Factor in that Kansas City is a 5.5-point favourite – for whatever that’s worth these days – and we should see Hunt get his fair share of touches in a game that he gets us the 40+ rushing yards that we need.

Kareem Hunt 40+ rushing yards -110 is my FanDuel Best Bet for Monday Night Football. 

Have a great day, everyone!