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Morning Coffee: AFC playoff race comes into focus after Week 16
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The Buffalo Bills closed -14.5 at FanDuel for Sunday’s game against the New England Patriots.
So, it must have been a little bit of a surprise for all the fans in attendance in the freezing cold temperatures at Highmark Stadium when they trailed the Patriots 14-0 early in the second quarter.
The Bills ultimately rallied for the 24-21 victory.
Buffalo secured its 10th straight regular season home win dating back to last season – the second-longest streak in franchise history.
Still, the members of Bills Mafia in attendance and all of us watching from the TSN boardroom understood that Josh Allen and company appeared to be pulling punches.
As it turns out, we were right.
Allen told reporters after the game that Buffalo is walking a fine line on play-calling with a playoff spot locked up.
It would have been great if he gave us that quote before I bet their alt team total over 27.5 points on Sunday.
The Bills passed on the opportunity to become the first team in NFL history to score 30+ points in nine straight weeks in favour of not wanting to show their full hand in advance of a tough road to the Super Bowl once the playoffs roll around.
Buffalo is in line to benefit from a distinct schedule advantage compared to its toughest AFC competition.
I’m fascinated to see what kind of impact that schedule has on the AFC playoff picture over the next two weeks.
This is the Morning Coffee for Monday December 23rd, 2024.
AFC Playoff Race Comes Into Focus After Week 16
All of us already knew that the Bills are capable of rallying from a double-digit deficit to beat an inferior opponent.
For the second time this season, Allen and company did exactly that in their win over New England on Sunday.
The Bills rallied from 14+ points to win for the second time this season, securing their seventh straight division victory dating back to last season.
After posting the highest combined two-game fantasy score in NFL history in Buffalo’s previous two games, fantasy football league managers hoping for another epic performance from Allen were disappointed when he threw for just 154 yards and a touchdown on Sunday.
More concerning for Bills Mafia was the hard hit that he took in the second half that led to him getting some extra attention on the sideline.
Sometimes, operating at less than a hundred per cent opens the door to a potential injury instead of preventing one.
It looked like that was almost the case for Allen on Sunday.
Fortunately, the MVP favourite avoided a serious injury.
Turning the page this morning, Buffalo is two games back of the Kansas City Chiefs for the AFC’s No. 1 seed with two games remaining.
While they could technically still catch the Chiefs if they win out and Kansas City loses both remaining games, the more likely scenario is that the Bills take care of their own business and ultimately hold off the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers for the No. 2 seed.
The Bills opened -9.5 for their Week 17 game against the New York Jets.
While Buffalo won’t play again until Sunday, the Chiefs, Ravens, Steelers, and the Houston Texans have a tight turnaround with all four of those teams in action on Christmas Day.
Last week, I wrote about the potential impact that the schedule could have on the AFC playoff picture.
With four of the top five choices to win the AFC at FanDuel in action on Christmas Day, I’m hoping that all four teams can avoid any significant injuries on short rest.
The Texans already lost Tank Dell to a devastating injury in Kansas City on Saturday.
We also saw Justice Hill go down for the Ravens against the Steelers.
With the AFC’s No. 1 seed and the AFC North division title still hanging in the balance, there’s still plenty of incentive for Wednesday’s games.
Meanwhile, the Bills will get a full week off before they host the Jets on Sunday, before closing out their regular season schedule in New England in Week 18.
Buffalo and Kansas City are considered the top two choices to win the AFC Championship at +200 and +210, respectively at FanDuel.
I wouldn’t overlook Baltimore at +350 to win the AFC.
Beyond that big three of the Bills, Chiefs, and Ravens, I have a hard time believing there’s another team that can win the AFC Championship this season.
For the Steelers and Texans, injuries and an extremely tough schedule won’t make that task any easier.
A FanDuel Best Bet For Monday Night Football
After another strong finish on Sunday, I’ve locked in another winning week posting NFL bets for every window throughout the week.
I’ll need the Green Bay Packers to win outright as a 14.5-point favourite against the New Orleans Saints as the final leg of a parlay I locked in as a FanDuel Best Bet.
This morning, I’ll add to that with a Same Game Parlay that features Christian Watson 25+ receiving yards and Romeo Doubs 25+ receiving yards with Green Bay to win outright at +101 odds.
Yes, the Packers want to run the football in the cold.
Still, Doubs has registered 25 or more receiving yards in all seven games at Lambeau Field this season.
Watson has 50 or more receiving yards in three straight games and 25 or more in six of his last seven overall.
Plus, the Saints rank near the bottom in the NFL in receiving yards allowed to opposing wide receivers this season.
If Green Bay wants Josh Jacobs to be at full strength for the playoffs, then maybe they give him a lighter workload against an inferior opponent on Monday Night Football.
I’ll lock in a Same Game Parlay with Watson 25+ receiving yards, Doubs 25+ receiving yards, and Green Bay to win outright at +101 odds.
I also like Kendre Miller 50+ rushing yards. Miller will get an opportunity to be the feature back in a Saints offence that will start Spencer Rattler tonight.
And the Packers defence has struggled to stop the run.
Give me Miller 50+ rushing yards as a FanDuel Best Bet.
Hopefully, we can go 3-0 tonight.
Have a great day, everyone!