Morning Coffee: All eyes will be on a potential Super Bowl preview this Sunday

None of us is guaranteed a thing when the alarm clock goes off in the morning.

We’re still expected to show up to work and do our jobs.

Unfortunately, there are those that will weaponize the slightest hint of adversity as an excuse when their self-absorption and bad habits inevitably shine through.

The moment something doesn’t go their way, they have the justification they need to quit on their team and blame everybody else around them for their actions.

Every now and then, the stories kept behind the curtains eventually make it to the big screen in the form of a public meltdown that makes nobody look good.

That’s exactly what happened on Thursday Night Football.

The San Francisco 49ers were expected to be a legitimate Super Bowl contender this season.

Entering Week 1, only the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs had shorter odds to win it all at FanDuel.

As it turns out, instead of ranking among the NFC’s best, the Niners season has been derailed by holdouts, injuries, key players failing to meet expectations, and what the public can only assume is a fair amount of dysfunction behind the scenes.

Last night, that dysfunction showed up in prime time.

In a must-win scenario on Thursday Night Football, linebacker De’Vondre Campbell Sr. was called on to replace the injured Dre Greenlaw with his team’s season hanging in the balance.

Instead of stepping up and helping the Niners try to salvage a win, Campbell refused to play and walked out on his team.    

The Los Angeles Rams went on to outscore San Francisco 9-0 in the fourth quarter of a 12-6 win.

In a season full of adversity, several Niners answered the call with grit, sacrifice and perseverance for the team.

Then there’s what Campbell did last night.

After the game, tight end George Kittle told reporters he’s “never been around anybody that’s ever done that, and I hope I’m never around anyone that does that again.”

The 49ers’ season is done.

Now comes the unique challenge of reshaping the roster with individuals that will buy into the team and help turn things around in San Francisco next season.

I look forward to seeing how the Niners' brain trust approaches that challenge.

All of us have faced adversity at some point in our lives.

Even when the plot twist is terrible, we’re still the leads in our own story.

We might as well act like it.

Unfortunately, that’s easier said than done for some.

This is the Morning Coffee for Friday December 13th, 2024.

All Eyes Will Be On A Potential Super Bowl Preview This Sunday

The Rams have dealt with their fair share of adversity.

Since starting the season 1-4, Los Angeles has won seven of its last nine games to pull within a half-game of the Seattle Seahawks for the NFC West lead.

The Rams will visit the New York Jets in Week 16 before wrapping up the season with back-to-back home games against the Arizona Cardinals and the Seattle Seahawks.

If they win out, LA will be crowned NFC West champions.

The Rams are the favourite to win their division at -105 odds at FanDuel this morning.

They’re -110 to make the playoffs as either the NFC West champion or a Wild Card team.

At first glance, that looks like a decent bet this morning.

At the same time, I haven’t exactly done a great job of picking winners of late. 

As it turns out, adversity has been my uninvited plus-one of late.

It’s not my usual vibe, but I’ve faced a few unexpected challenges of late, and I’m adjusting on the fly here.

Turning the page this morning, I’m locking in my FanDuel Best Bets for NFL Sunday Week 15.

I’ll start with a builder Same Game Parlay for Sunday’s potential Super Bowl preview between the Buffalo Bills and the Detroit Lions.

The Lions are currently a 2.5-point home favourite.

The Bills certainly have the potential to win this game outright, and I don’t envision them getting blown out.

I’ll start the build with Buffalo to cover the alt +10.5.

Next up, I’ll plug in Jahmyr Gibbs to record 40 or more rushing yards.

Gibbs has covered this mark in every single Lions game this season.

He’s averaged a team-high 78.2 rushing yards on 13.7 attempts per game this season.

The Bills have allowed over 100 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs this season and I expect Detroit to stick with the run game in a massive showdown on Sunday.

For the final leg, I’ll take Khalil Shakir to register 40 or more receiving yards.

Shakir, who is coming off a season-high 109 receiving yards in Sunday’s loss to the Rams, has cleared this mark in six of his previous seven games.

The lone exception was a blizzard game against the San Francisco 49ers in which he still finished with four catches for 30 yards.

The Bills should get Keon Coleman back this week, but I still think Shakir will be busy working out of the slot, where the Lions defence has struggled.

Detroit has allowed an average of 185.9 receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers this season – the second-worst mark in the entire NFL.

I’ll lock in a builder SGP with Bills +10.5, Gibbs 40+ rushing, and Shakir 40+ receiving at +100 odds.

Next up, I’ll play an SGP with Courtland Sutton to record 50+ receiving yards and the Denver Broncos to beat the Indianapolis Colts at +104.

Sutton has registered at least 70 receiving yards in six straight games for Denver.

Meanwhile, the Colts defence has allowed an average of 246.5 passing yards per game this season, including 152.5 receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers.

Indy allowed Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, and Tim Patrick to all go over 50 yards in their loss to the Detroit Lions a couple of weeks ago, then gave up 238 passing yards to rookie Drake Maye in last week’s narrow win over the New England Patriots.

Denver is two games up on the Colts for the final AFC Wild Card with four games remaining.

FanDuel has Sean Payton’s team at -290 to make the playoffs this morning.

The Broncos close out the season against the Los Angeles Chargers, Cincinnati Bengals, and the Kansas City Chiefs, so securing a key head-to-head win over Indianapolis this week would be massive.

Denver has won three in a row and had an extra week to prepare with a late bye week.

Meanwhile, the Colts have lost four of six and will be on the road for the second game in a row and third time in four weeks – this time playing at altitude.

Give me Sutton 50+ receiving yards and the Broncos to win outright at +104 odds.

Next, I’ll look ahead to Monday Night Football with a Same Game Parlay that features Jordan Addison 40+ receiving yards and the Minnesota Vikings to beat the Chicago Bears outright at -110 odds.

Addison has been on fire of late with an average of 5.8 receptions and 102.5 receiving yards per game.

Only Jerry Jeudy, Ja’Marr Chase, Puka Nacua, and Ladd McConkey have been more productive on average over that span.

Now Addison is set to face a Chicago defence that just gave up 325 passing yards to Brock Purdy last week.

The Bears now rank 29th in pass defence this season.

The Vikings should win this game as a seven-point home favourite as they try to chase down the Detroit Lions and Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC standings.

I’ll take Addison to get me 40 yards in a Minnesota win.

Back to Sunday, I’ll take Lamar Jackson over 41.5 rushing yards at -110 at FanDuel.

The Baltimore Ravens are a 16.5-point favourite against the New York Giants.

Jackson might not need to run to beat the Giants, but he did say after Baltimore’s loss to the Philadelphia Eagles that his mother scolded him for not taking off more often when he had the opportunity, and that was after he ran for 79 yards on eight attempts.

The Giants have allowed the fourth-most quarterback rushing yards this season thanks in part to the seventh-highest missed tackle rate on rushing attempts.

Jackson has rushed for 40 or more yards in 10 of 13 games this season. 

Give me Jackson over 41.5 rushing yards at -110.

For my next pick I like DeAndre Hopkins over 3.5 receptions at -110 at FanDuel.

We’ve seen a steady rise in the number of targets and air yards that Hopkins has receiver over the past couple of weeks.

He’s gone over this mark three straight games, despite hauling in just four of his nine targets in each of the last two games. 

Finally, I’ll lock in the Houston Texans -2.5 against the Miami Dolphins.

The Texans have faced their fair share of adversity this season, but they still rank in the top-five in defensive DVOA over the last month, and Nico Collins has had a couple of weeks to work his way back from injury.

Houston is coming off a much-needed bye in Week 14.

Miami has gone 1-4 straight up against opponents with winning records this season, with the lone win coming in Week 10 against the Rams.

I’ll take the Texans to win and cover coming off a bye.

Here is a full list of my FanDuel Best Bets for Week 15:

+100 SGP: Bills +10.5 | Gibbs 40+ rushing | Shakir 40+ receiving
+104 SGP: Broncos ML | Sutton 50+ receiving
-110 SGP: Vikings ML | Addison 40+ receiving
Lamar Jackson over 41.5 rushing yards
DeAndre Hopkins over 3.5 receptions
Texans -2.5 vs. Dolphins
-120 Parlay: Commanders ML | Ravens ML | Vikings ML

As for tonight, here are my FanDuel Best Bets:

-110 SGP+: Morant 6+ assists | Grizzlies ML | Timberwolves ML
-105 SGP: Booker 20+ points | Booker 4+ assists | Suns ML

Have a great weekend, everyone!