Morning Coffee: Nix, Broncos brace for toughest test yet

The Denver Broncos defied all expectations by clinching a playoff berth this season.

With a trip to the postseason, they earned the opportunity to surprise the football world one more time as a massive underdog for NFL Wild Card Weekend.

The Broncos opened at +360 to beat the Buffalo Bills on Sunday at FanDuel. That number represents just a 21.7 per cent implied probability that Denver wins.

It also made the Broncos the second-biggest underdog for NFL Wild Card Weekend, behind only the Pittsburgh Steelers at +420 to beat the Baltimore Ravens.

When asked about his team’s chances, head coach Sean Payton responded, “We all like a challenge, right?”

Payton silenced his critics by guiding Denver back to the playoffs in a year when most NFL fans expected the franchise to be in a rebuild mode.

As impressive as that achievement may be, the team’s toughest challenge is still in front of them.

And recent playoff history doesn’t paint an encouraging picture when it comes to the Broncos chances.

This is the Morning Coffee for Tuesday Jan. 7, 2024.

Nix, Broncos brace for toughest test yet

The Broncos were +880 to make the playoffs at FanDuel.  That number represented just a 10.2 per cent implied probability.

To reach the postseason, Denver needed to smash nearly every pre-season projection.

FanDuel set the Broncos regular season win total at 5.5. Denver clinched the over by Week 11, then won four of its final six games to finish 10-7.

Additionally, the Broncos were one of the best teams in the NFL when it comes to beating expectations on a week-to-week basis.

Denver went 12-5 against the spread, matching the Detroit Lions and the Minnesota Vikings for the second-best ATS record in the NFL, behind only the Los Angeles Chargers (13-4).

Next up, the Broncos will face their toughest test yet.

The Bills are an 8.5-point favourite for Sunday’s showdown. Buffalo is 8-0 straight up at home this season.

Bo Nix is coming off an impressive rookie year. However, rookie quarterbacks are 0-5 straight up and 1-4 against the spread in road playoff games over the last 10 seasons.

And the Bills have the MVP favourite in Josh Allen.

It’s also worth highlighting that Allen is the third choice to win Super Bowl MVP at FanDuel.

I’m sure you can guess who the favourite is in that market.

It’s no surprise that Buffalo has been a popular bet.

Per the FanDuel traders, 68 per cent of the stakes in the spread market for this game are on the Bills to cover. 

In terms of a FanDuel Best Bet, I think there’s an edge when it comes to the Broncos rookie QB using his mobility on the road in a tough environment for his first playoff game.

Nix averaged 25.3 rushing yards per game this season. That number jumped to 31.5 over the final four weeks.

FanDuel set his rushing yards prop at 20.5 this week. Nix has cleared 25+ rushing yards in three straight games.

Now he must play a tough Buffalo defence on the road in the cold conditions in a game in which Denver is an 8.5-point underdog.

I bet Nix to go over 20.5 rushing yards at FanDuel. I still like the over at the current number 22.5.

Give me Nix over 22.5 rushing yards as my initial FanDuel Best Bet for NFL Wild Card weekend.

Have a great day, everyone.