Morning Coffee: Bombers’ Grey Cup odds on the move again at FanDuel

The Winnipeg Blue Bombers have been a perennial Grey Cup contender in recent seasons.

A franchise-record four straight trips to the Grey Cup, including consecutive championships in 2019 and 2021.

The Bombers opened the 2024 CFL season as an obvious favourite to win the Grey Cup at FanDuel.

However, they fell all the way to fifth in that market after being dealt four straight losses to begin the season.

Winnipeg has since bounced back with consecutive wins, improving to 2-4 ahead of a Week 7 showdown against the Saskatchewan Roughriders.

While the Bombers suffered the biggest drop off in terms of their Grey Cup winner odds through the first few weeks of the season, the Riders were the biggest riser in that market following a 4-0 start.

Which team is the better bet to win the Grey Cup right now – Winnipeg or Saskatchewan?

It’s interesting to note that while their seasons have been nearly opposites to this point, the Bombers and Riders have nearly identical odds to win the Grey Cup.

Meanwhile, the odds for a Week 7 showdown between Winnipeg and Saskatchewan have been on the move over the past 48 hours at FanDuel.

The Bombers are set to be a betting favourite once again when they visit Mosaic Stadium for Friday Night Football.

This is the Morning Coffee for Thursday July 18th, 2024.

Bombers’ Grey Cup Odds On The Move Again At FanDuel

Expectations have remained high for Winnipeg on a week-to-week basis this season.

Despite a 2-4 start, the Bombers have been the favourite in each of their first six games.

That trend will continue when they visit Saskatchewan on Friday Night Football.

Winnipeg opened -1.5 at FanDuel earlier this week.

Over the past 48 hours, that number has been bumped a couple of points up to Bombers -3.5.

The total hasn’t moved off 50.5 – the lowest number of any CFL Week 7 game.

Per the FanDuel traders, a whopping 97 per cent of the stakes are on Winnipeg to win and cover the spread at Mosaic Stadium.

That’s despite that the Bombers are 2-4 straight up and 1-5 against the spread this season.

Their lone cover came in a 25-16 win over the Ottawa Redblacks as a 2.5-point home favourite back in Week 5.

Winnipeg failed to cover as a 4.5-point home favourite in a 41-37 win over the Calgary Stampeders in Week 6.

On the flip side, the Riders are 4-1 straight up and against the spread this season.

Saskatchewan failed to cover for the first time this season in last week’s 35-20 loss to the BC Lions.

It’s interesting to note that the Grey Cup winner odds for both teams have shifted dramatically at FanDuel through the first six weeks of the season.

The Riders opened at +1400 to win the Grey Cup and were +1100 as the fifth choice to win it all at the start of the season.

Saskatchewan is currently the fourth choice to win it all this year at +650.

Meanwhile, the Bombers opened +340 and were down to +200 to win the Grey Cup at FanDuel entering Week 1.

After a 2-4 start, Winnipeg could be found as high as +1000 as the fifth choice to win it all at FanDuel earlier this week.

When I saw that number, I texted Drew Morrison, who writes our weekly CFL betting preview column that you could read at TSN.ca titled 3rd and 1 later this afternoon.

I suggested there might be value betting the Bombers at that price.

It didn’t take long for that number to move.

As of Wednesday morning, Winnipeg to win the Grey Cup was down from +1000 to +800 at FanDuel.

As of this morning, I’m looking at the Bombers to win the Grey Cup at +700.

Still a lot better number than when they opened the season at +200, but nearly cut in half from +1000 a little more than 24 hours ago.

Of course, a lot can change between now and November.

There aren’t many positives to take away from a 2-4 start.

However, three of Winnipeg’s four losses have been by four points or less, including a two-point loss to the currently Grey Cup favourite in the BC Lions in Week 3.

To turn things around, the Bombers need to cut down on their offensive turnovers.

Winnipeg has committed a league-high 11 turnovers.

That could be a problem again this week against a Riders’ defence that leads the CFL with 16 takeaways this season.

Only Montreal (22.7) and BC (24.2) have allowed fewer points per game than the Bombers (25.2) this season.

However, the Winnipeg offence ranks dead-last in the CFL with an average of 23.3 points per game.

If Zach Collaros and company can cut down on their mistakes and become a more efficient offence, the Bombers could very well contend with the Lions and Alouettes as one of the top teams in the CFL this season.

I certainly thought there was value backing the Bombers at +1000 to win the Grey Cup at FanDuel and it didn’t take long for that price to disappear.

In part due to their status as the pre-season favourite to win it all, Winnipeg is just the fifth-most bet team to win the Grey Cup in terms of handle at FanDuel.

Per the FanDuel traders, the Toronto Argonauts are the most popular pick to win the Grey Cup with 22 per cent of the bets and 27.5 per cent of the handle in that market.

Montreal is the second-most popular pick with 21.5 per cent of the handle in the Grey Cup Winner market.

Saskatchewan is third on that list with 11.2 per cent of the handle.

The Lions, which are the Grey Cup favourite at +220 entering Week 7, are the fourth-most popular pick to win the Grey Cup with 10.8 per cent of the handle.

Then it’s Winnipeg at No. 5 on that list.

We are just over 24 hours away from an intriguing Friday Night Football showdown between the Bombers and the Riders at Mosaic Stadium.

While I believed there was value taking a flyer on Winnipeg to win the Grey Cup at +1000, I’m not nearly as interested in jumping on the Bombers to win and cover as a 3.5-point favourite in Saskatchewan this week.

Apparently, I’m in the overwhelming minority.

Let’s see if Collaros and company can win and cover for the 97 per cent of bettors that have already laid the points with the Bombers against the Riders in that CFL Week 7 spread market.