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Morning Coffee: Bombers still a strong value pick to win the Grey Cup
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Every Grey Cup contender must navigate a series of challenges over the course of an 18-game CFL season.
In the end, all that matters is whether you win it all.
The Winnipeg Blue Bombers have been a perennial Grey Cup contender in recent seasons.
After a franchise-record four straight trips to the Grey Cup, including championship victories in 2019 and 2021, the Bombers entered Week 1 of the 2024 CFL season as the favourite to win it all at FanDuel.
However, Winnipeg struggled out of the gate with four straight losses to start the season.
That was enough for the Bombers to be downgraded from the favourite to the fifth choice to win the Grey Cup at FanDuel.
Their odds to win it all ballooned from +200 to +1000.
At the time, I texted our guy Drew Morrison, who writes our weekly CFL betting preview column titled 3rd and 1 and suggested there might be value betting on Winnipeg.
As it turns out, I might have been on to something.
The Bombers have since turned things around by going 4-2 in their previous six games, including back-to-back wins over one of the teams they are chasing in the West Division in the BC Lions.
Winnipeg’s Grey Cup odds are on the move once again at FanDuel.
Still, the Bombers remain a strong value pick to win the Grey Cup at their current price.
This is the Morning Coffee for Friday August 23rd, 2024.
Bombers Still A Strong Value Pick To Win The Grey Cup
The Bombers could be found as high as +1000 as the fifth choice to win the Grey Cup at FanDuel.
Their down to +600 as the third choice this morning.
Only the Montreal Alouettes (+210) and the Lions (+230) have shorter odds to win it all this season.
Is there value placing a bet on Winnipeg to win the Grey Cup at +600 at FanDuel this morning?
While I have a +1000 ticket in-pocket, I still think there’s an advantage to betting the Bombers at their current number.
Despite their early-season struggles, Winnipeg is right behind the Saskatchewan Roughriders and Lions for the best record in the CFL’s West Division.
In fact, all five teams in the West are separated by just two wins this morning.
BC is the only team in the division with shorter odds to win the Grey Cup at FanDuel.
In fact, their numbers are drastically different, with the Lions at +230 and the Bombers at +600.
Keep in mind, Winnipeg just outscored BC a combined 45-11 in back-to-back victories.
In their first meeting in Week 9, the Bombers held Vernon Adams Jr. to 74 passing yards and an interception before he left the shutout loss with an injury.
Then after a bye in Week 10, Winnipeg held Nathan Rourke to 126 passing yards and two interceptions in a 20-11 win in Week 11.
The Lions didn’t score a touchdown until their final possession once the game was already out of reach.
Zach Collaros threw for 288 yards and a touchdown in that win over BC.
Brady Oliveira ran for 78 yards on 7.8 yards per carry.
Meanwhile, the Bombers defence has allowed a league-low 19.7 points per game this season.
Next up, Winnipeg will host the Hamilton Tiger-Cats on Friday Night Football.
The Bombers are up from -9.5 to -10.5 at FanDuel.
Our guy Davis Sanchez suggested we should expect as much when he gave out Winnipeg as his Early Lean for Week 12.
Looking ahead, the Bombers have a home-and-home against the Saskatchewan Roughriders on deck in Week 13 and Week 14.
After that, they won’t face a team with a winning record until they host the Toronto Argonauts in a potential Grey Cup preview in Week 19.
Winnipeg has a championship-calibre defence.
They have several veterans on both sides of the football that have a championship pedigree.
If the Bombers continue their strong play and finish with the best record in the West Division, will anybody remember that they started the season 0-4?
Every Grey Cup contender will encounter adversity at one point or another throughout the CFL season.
In a lot of ways, it would be a good thing if Winnipeg encountered and overcame that adversity early in the year.
Of course, a lot can change over the next seven weeks.
First and foremost, the Bombers will need to stay healthy if they are going to contend for the Grey Cup.
If that happens, I’d put them right there with the Alouettes as one of the best teams in the CFL.
Certainly, they’d end up with shorter odds to win it all than their current price at +600.
At the very least, that could create a favourable cash-out or the opportunity to hedge.
There’s still value betting on Winnipeg to win the Grey Cup at +600 at FanDuel.
Have a great weekend, everyone!