Morning Coffee: Campbell, Lions aim to avenge NFC Championship loss before Vikings clash

Sometimes, a look back at where we’ve come from is the best way to appreciate what’s still in front of us.

It’s our experiences that help shape our next steps.

For the Detroit Lions, the Dan Campbell era will come full circle when they visit the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football.

When Campbell took over as head coach back in 2021, Detroit stumbled to an NFC-worst 3-13-1 record.

Only two years later, the Lions went 12-5, secured back-to-back playoff wins over the Los Angeles Rams and Tampa Buccaneers, then led San Francisco by 17 points on the road at halftime of the NFC Championship game.

The 49ers ultimately went on to win that game 34-31.

While the result was a disappointment, Campbell’s team proved they were ready to compete with the NFC’s best, laying the foundation for their redemption this season.

Tonight, the Lions return to San Francisco with a chance to avenge last year’s NFC Championship game loss.

While Campbell has made it clear that he intends to approach tonight’s game as though it is a must-win situation for Detroit, he might be better off walking back that sentiment and considering the bigger picture.

After all, the past isn’t there to hold us back, it’s there to remind us how far we’ve come.

Campbell’s team has been dealt an unprecedented hand heading into their final two regular season games.

With so much at stake in next week’s showdown against the Minnesota Vikings, the Lions can’t afford to take their sights off the ultimate prize.

This is the Morning Coffee for Monday December 30th, 2024.

Campbell, Lions Aim To Avenge NFC Championship Loss Before Vikings Clash

In 2021, Campbell’s Lions finished in the NFC basement with a 3-13-1 record.

Three years later, they have a chance to clinch a No. 1 seed for the first time in franchise history.

Detroit is one of five teams that has never been a No. 1 seed before.

The Lions have set a franchise-record with 13 wins.

They’re also on pace to finish with the best point differential (+194) in franchise history.

Still, Detroit could fall from the No. 1 seed to the No. 5 seed in the NFC if they stumble in Week 18.

The Minnesota Vikings beat the Green Bay Packers 27-25 to improve to 14-2 on Sunday.

With the win, the Vikings set up an NFC North showdown with the Lions that will determine the division winner and the NFC’s No. 1 seed on Sunday Night Football in Week 18.

Regardless of tonight’s result, Minnesota or Detroit would clinch the NFC North title and the NFC’s No. 1 seed with a win in Week 18.

If the Lions beat the 49ers tonight, they’d clinch the division and the NFC’s No. 1 seed with a win or tie against the Vikings next Sunday.

If they lose in San Francisco, Detroit will need to beat Minnesota to finish on top of both their division and conference.

Next Sunday’s showdown will mark the first regular-season game in NFL history between two teams with 13 or more wins.

While both teams are among the top six choices to win the Super Bowl at FanDuel, one is destined to open their postseason on the road in the Wild Card round.

The other is destined for a first-round playoff bye and home-field advantage throughout the postseason.

Considering their unique home-field advantages and the differences in their potential paths to the Super Bowl, that Week 18 showdown between Detroit and Minnesota could have major implications.

Unfortunately for the Lions, they still have one more game to play tonight before returning home to face the Vikings next Sunday.

Regardless of what’s at stake next week, Campbell has made it clear that right now he’s all-in on finding a way to beat the Niners in their own building tonight.

For Detroit, does it make more sense to ride the starters and try to grind out a revenge win over San Francisco or does it make more sense to limit their exposure tonight and shift the focus to Minnesota?

As far as I’m concerned, it’s very obviously the latter.

Every decision Campbell has made is important – even the wrong ones – because they got the Lions to this exact moment.

The past isn’t there to hold us back, it’s to remind us of how far we’ve come.

Perhaps being back in San Francisco for an NFC Championship game rematch reminds Campbell of how far this franchise has come under his watch, and exactly what will be at stake in Week 18.

I’m fascinated to find out whether Campbell will re-evaluate his approach to Monday Night Football prior to kick-off.

I’m tempted to take the points with the Niners, but I’m not convinced that he will.

At this point, I’ll pivot to a trio of player props for my FanDuel Best Bets.

First up, I’ll take Jahmyr Gibbs over 27.5 receiving yards.

I’ll be the first to admit I was surprised when Gibbs got 23 carries and five targets in a double-digit win over the Chicago Bears last week.

I’m sure Lions fans would prefer it if Gibbs saw fewer touches tonight, but I’m not entirely sure it will happen if Campbell is intent on winning the game.

With David Montgomery injured, Gibbs had four catches for 45 yards in the double-digit win over the Bears.

The week before that, he had five catches for 83 yards and a touchdown against the Buffalo Bills.

The week before that, Gibbs went for 30 yards on six catches against the Green Bay Packers.

With Montgomery out, Gibbs’ ability as a pass-catching weapon becomes that much more important to the Detroit offence.

I’ll bank on offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to get him a few touches in space tonight.

Give me Gibbs to go over 27.5 receiving yards for the fourth straight week.

Next, I’ll take Tim Patrick over 27.5 receiving yards.

Patrick had gone over this mark in three consecutive games before failing to register a catch against the Chicago Bears in Week 16.

He played 42 snaps last week but got only one target.

Prior to that goose egg, Patrick had registered 55, 48, 43, and 30 receiving yards while receiving at least three targets in every game.

Despite getting shut out against the Bears, Patrick has still averaged 30.3 receiving yards over the last four weeks and he should see a slight bump as a big target that plays a ton of snaps against the Niners zone defence.

I’ll lock in Patrick over 27.5 receiving yards as a FanDuel Best Bet.

Meanwhile, we know that the Lions operate a pass funnel defence.

Detroit gives up just 68.2 running back rushing yards per game to opposing running backs – the third-best mark in the NFL this season.

On the flip side, the Lions give up an average of 187.6 passing yards per game to opposing wide receivers – the second-worst mark in the entire NFL.

That led me to take a closer look at San Francisco’s wide receivers.

I’ll start with Ricky Pearsall over 1.5 receptions.

Pearsall matched his career-high with four receptions for 37 yards in last week’s loss to the Miami Dolphins.

Pearsall has been targeted exactly four times in each of his last two games.

If that trend continues tonight, he should be able to haul in at least a pair of catches against a suspect secondary.

The 49ers had high expectations for the rookie Pearsall when they drafted him with the 31st overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.

I’ll assume they’ll want to get a good look at him over the final two games of the season.

I’ll take Pearsall over 1.5 receptions as a FanDuel Best Bet.

Finally, I’ll lock in a builder Same Game Parlay with Deebo Samuel 4+ receptions and Jauan Jennings 40+ receiving yards at +100 odds as a FanDuel Best Bet.

Tonight, could mark Deebo’s final home game in San Francisco.

The veteran receiver has complained about a lack of touches at times this season and he’s certainly seen an uptick in targets with an average of 8.0 per game over his last two games.

He’s also been booed off the field at times this season.

Samuel has recorded 4+ receptions in five of his previous eight games and he had a team-high eight receptions for 89 yards and a touchdown on nine targets against the Lions in last year’s NFC Championship game.

He’s also coming off a strong performance against Miami in which he recorded seven receptions for 96 yards and a touchdown on nine targets.

I’ll bank on Samuel wanting to go out on a high note in front of the home fans tonight in San Francisco.

I’ll also count on Jennings continuing to thrive against man coverage.

Jennings has posted an above average target rate against man coverage this season.

Coming off a 51-yard performance in the loss to the Dolphins, he should be able to top that mark in the most favourable coverage match-up he’ll see this season.

Jennings has hit 40+ receiving yards in six of his previous seven games and the one outlier was the loss to the Los Angeles Rams a couple of weeks ago when he still finished with 31 yards on just two catches on nine targets.

Jennings is 144 yards away from his first 1,000-yard season.

There’s a good chance he hauls in a good chunk of that tonight.

I’ll lock in Samuel 4+ receptions and Jennings 40+ receiving yards as a builder Same Game Parlay at +100 odds as a FanDuel Best Bet.

To recap, here are my four FanDuel Best Bets:

Jahmyr Gibbs over 27.5 receiving

Tim Patrick over 27.5 receiving

Ricky Pearsall over 1.5 receptions

+100 SGP: Samuel 4+ receptions | Jennings 40+ receiving

Hopefully, we can sweep again with a 4-0 night.

Have a great day, everyone!