Morning Coffee: Canada an underdog versus Mexico in Nations League semi-final

The Canadian men’s national soccer team proved it could compete with the world’s best in its Copa America debut.

While soccer fans in this country are optimistic Canada can build off last summer’s fourth-place finish, FanDuel bettors aren’t convinced it will happen in tonight’s highly anticipated Nations League semi-final versus Mexico.

Canada opened as a small favourite to advance.

However, the odds for the semi-final versus Mexico have since flipped, leaving Canada to resume its underdog role on the international stage once again.

Will Canada capitalize with another upset win tonight?

This is the Morning Coffee for Thursday March 20^th, 2025.

Canada An Underdog Versus Mexico In Nations League Semi-Final

Canada and Mexico are closer than they’ve ever been before in the FIFA rankings.

The fact that FanDuel opened with Canada as the favourite to win tonight’s semi-final is a testament to how the perception of the Canadian men’s national soccer team has shifted over the years.

Still, bettors aren’t convinced that Canada will come out on top in tonight’s semi-final, which led to Mexico’s moneyline odds being cut from +185 to +125 since Saturday night.

Mexico is -144 to advance at FanDuel this morning.

Canada is +118 to pull off the upset to get to the final.

The betting favourite is expected to gain an advantage from a pro-Mexican crowd at SOFI Stadium in California.

With Team USA a heavy favourite versus Panama in the other semi-final, Canada will need back-to-back upsets in hostile territory to win the Nations League.

In terms of a FanDuel Best Bet, I’ll lock in a traditional two-leg parlay with the under 3.5 goals in the Canada match and Team USA to beat Panama at -135 odds.

The Americans should be able to handle their business as a heavy favourite versus Panama on home soil.

While both Canada and Mexico have the offensive firepower to open things up, I lean towards both teams playing a tighter game with a lot on the line and so little room for error.

Regardless of the final score, I’ll be with the rest of you hoping that Canada ultimately comes out on top tonight.

Meanwhile, with the first round of the NCAA basketball tournaments getting underway, a loaded NHL slate, and NBA action later tonight, there’s a little something for everybody on a busy sports schedule.

After falling just short with a couple of bets bets over the past couple of days, I’m ready to welcome the madness with several plays that I’ve got locked in across the board.

Hopefully, we can lock in some winners to add to the excitement of the day.

First up, I’ll take the over 5.5 goals in tonight’s game between the Colorado Avalanche and Ottawa Senators.

My SGP with Mitch Marner 1+ point and the alt over 5.5 fell short yesterday in a rare low-scoring affair between those teams, but I think we see a little more scoring tonight.

The last time these teams met, they combined for seven goals in the third period alone in a 5-4 Colorado win.

Meanwhile, it isn’t often you can get the Avalanche as a pick’em against a Wild Card contender.

After a frustrating loss last night in Toronto, I’ll jump on Colorado bounce back tonight and win outright at -110.

The Montreal Canadiens ended Ottawa’s win streak and have been the hottest team in the NHL since the 4 Nations Face-Off.

Tonight, they face the New York Islanders in a crucial game for both teams in the Eastern Conference playoff race.

I’ll take an SGP with Nick Suzuki to record 1+ point and the Habs +1.5 on the alt spread at -110 tonight.

Next up, I’ll lock in an SGP with the Washington Capitals to beat the Philadelphia Flyers outright and Jon Carlson to register 1+ shot on goal at -140.

Carlson has registered nine shots on goal in three wins over Philadelphia this season so I’m banking on him to make it 4-for-4 tonight.

Finally, I’ll lock in a two-team NBA moneyline parlay with the Milwaukee Bucks to beat the Los Angeles Lakers and the Golden State Warriors to beat the Toronto Raptors at -120.

As for the NCAA tournament, I went chalk and bet Duke to win the tournament at +300 and to reach the Final Four at -140.

The Blue Devils didn’t miss a beat without a couple of their best players in the ACC tournament and at full strength I’m not sure anybody in the NCAA tournament can beat them if they don’t beat themselves.

In terms of the first-round plays that I’ve locked in, here is my full card to this point:

Creighton +2.5 over Louisville

Parlay (-150): Purdue ML + Clemson ML

Clemson -7.5 over McNeese

VCU +2.5 over BYU

Drake +6.5 over Missouri

Michigan -2.5 over UC San Diego

Grand Canyon +11.5 over Maryland

Parlay (-150): Saint Mary’s ML + Wisconsin ML

SGP (+112): Bittle 15+ Points + Oregon ML

What’s your favourite March Madness first round play?

Hit me up @Domenic_Padula on X and let me know!