Morning Coffee: Canada, Finland set for high stakes showdown at 4 Nations Face-Off

The NBA playoffs are still 61 days away.

You can go ahead and lock in the under on the number of conversations I’ll entertain regarding the format for the NBA All-Star Game between now and then.

I’ve heard more than enough over the past 24 hours.

In case you missed it, Stephen Curry secured his second NBA All-Star Game MVP in front of the home fans at the Chase Center in San Francisco last night.

Curry joined Michael Jordan as the only players in NBA history with multiple NBA championships, multiple scoring titles, multiple MVPs, and multiple All-Star MVPs.

The problem is that while Curry was securing his second All-Star MVP, basketball fans were busy on social media discussing how to “fix” the NBA’s star-studded exhibition.

And while I netted a small profit with a wager on Curry to win NBA All-Star Game MVP at +500 odds, it paled in comparison to the bet I cashed earlier in the day after Ludvig Aberg rallied to win the Genesis Invitational.

Shout out to our Luke Bellus for the recommended play on Aberg to win the Genesis Invitational at +2200.

Meanwhile, the NBA All-Star Game experience also paled in comparison to the exhibition that took place featuring the NHL’s best players on Saturday night in Montreal.

This isn’t a shot at anybody who prefers to watch basketball over hockey; to each their own.

It’s just that the entire NBA All-Star Game production failed to live up to the hype to everybody from the casual to the hardcore fan.

Additionally, it looked even smaller in the afterglow of Saturday’s thrilling showdown between Canada and the USA in the 4 Nations Face-Off.

To be fair, it might have been impossible to top it.

Canada versus USA was so epic that even casual hockey fans are hoping we get a rematch in the championship.

With the NBA and NHL playoffs still a couple of months away, we’re fortunate to get to watch the NHL’s best sacrifice it all for the chance to lead their respective countries at the 4 Nations Face-Off.

The tournament has provided us with some needed post-Super Bowl entertainment value to help get us through the winter weather conditions sweeping the country.

With the first four games of the tourney in the books, the 4 Nations Face-Off shifts from the Bell Centre in Montreal to the TD Garden in Boston for the conclusion of the round robin and the championship game.

Team USA has already clinched top spot in the standings and a berth in Thursday’s final following a regulation win over Canada on Saturday night.

It’s more likely than not that the Americans will find out which team they will play in the final before they even take the ice versus Sweden tonight.

Canada and Finland are set to meet this afternoon.

If either team wins in regulation, they’ll advance to play Team USA in the championship game on Thursday.

Of course, Canada is considered the obvious betting favourite at -430 to beat Finland outright at FanDuel. 

That number implies an 81.1 per cent probability that the Canadian team will emerge victorious in Boston.

Meanwhile, a Finland upset win is priced at +330 at FanDuel this morning.

A $10 bet on a Finland upset would pay $33.

At this point, anything other than a rematch between Canada and USA in the 4 Nations Face-Off championship game would be considered an absolute stunner.

Still, hockey fans across Canada clearly understand that elimination games don’t always follow a script.

And with the weight of expectations on the heavy favourite, it’s safe to say that the entire nation will be holding its collective breath as it cheers on Team Canada at the 4 Nations Face-Off this afternoon.

This is the Morning Coffee for Monday February 17th, 2025.

Canada, Finland Set For High Stakes Showdown At 4 Nations Face-Off

“The message we wanted to send is it’s our time”.

That’s what Matthew Tkachuk told Mark Masters and the reporters gathered around him in Montreal following Team USA’s 3-1 win over Canada on Saturday night.

It was Team USA’s first win over Canada in an NHL International Tournament game since Game 3 of the 1996 World Cup of Hockey Final.

Keith Tkachuk led the Americans to back-to-back wins to close out that championship series versus Canada.

29 years later, his sons Matthew and Brady wasted little time establishing their presence with a pair of fights in the first three seconds after the opening puck drop.

J.T. Miller joined in on the fun with another fighting major six seconds later to make it three fights in the first nine seconds of game time.

While the Tkachuks and Miller did the dirty work, it was Jake Guentzel who stepped up with a pair of goals for Team USA in the 3-1 win.

Guentzel’s three goals are the most in the tournament.

He’s also tied with Zach Werenski for the tournament lead with four points through two games.

While Matthew Tkachuk sat out most of the third period with an undisclosed injury, he downplayed the severity of whatever it was that kept him on the bench.

Next up, Team USA will skate in front of the home fans in Boston for the first time in the tournament when they clash with Sweden.

There’s a good chance that we already know Team USA’s opponent for the championship game by the time they take the ice at the TD Garden tonight.

Still, most of the people I talked to don’t expect any let up from the tournament favourite on home ice.

Team USA is currently -196 to beat Sweden outright.

Per the FanDuel traders, 77 per cent of the stakes are on the Americans to win the game.

83 per cent of the stakes are on the over 5.5 goals.

Regardless of what it means in the standings, I expect the players for both teams to be motivated to deliver their best when they represent their countries in the final game of the round robin tonight.

I’m also looking forward to potentially seeing the former Vancouver Canucks teammates Miller and Elias Pettersson on the ice together for the first time since Miller was traded to the New York Rangers.

In case you missed it, FanDuel has a long list of novelty props focused on those former teammates turned rivals, including Miller and Pettersson to combine for 2+ goals at +920 odds.

Either Miller or Pettersson to score a goal is +182.

I’m definitely looking forward to seeing the former Canucks on the ice together later tonight.

First up, it’s Canada versus Finland with a spot in the 4 Nations Face-Off championship game on the line.

As I outlined above, Canada is a heavy favourite at -430 to win outright at FanDuel.

Per the FanDuel traders, only 71 per cent of the stakes in the money line market are on the Canadian team to come out on top.

On the flip side, 29 per cent of the stakes are on Finland to pull off the upset.

Team Canada had won 13 straight NHL International Tournament games and 17 straight “best-on-best” competition games prior to Saturday night’s loss.

They had also won 26 straight games with Sidney Crosby in the lineup dating back to the 2010 Olympic Games.

After those streaks were snapped on Saturday night, the pressure will be on Canada to deliver the appropriate response in a must-win situation versus Finland.

That will mean figuring out a way to produce a lot more offensive chances than they were able to generate when they were held to just one goal in the loss to Team USA.

As a hockey fan, I’d love to see head coach Jon Cooper and his staff shake up their lines and pair Connor McDavid with Nathan MacKinnon to start the game.

MacKinnon, Sidney Crosby, and Mark Stone were Canada’s most efficient line on Saturday.

We also saw McDavid with Crosby and Stone in the third period.

In a must-win situation, I’d love to see 97 and 29 united.

After scoring the opening goal of the tournament, MacKinnon was held to just one shot on goal in the loss to Team USA.

Regardless of line combinations, I’m banking on MacKinnon to bounce back with a much better performance versus Finland this afternoon.

For my FanDuel Best Bets, I’ll start with a builder Same Game Parlay that features MacKinnon 1+ point, MacKinnon 3+ shots on goal, and Canada to win at +104.

The stakes couldn’t be higher for Canada right now, and in a favourable match-up I expect MacKinnon to deliver, regardless of who he is skating with this afternoon.

Heavy top-six minutes and a spot on a loaded top power play unit should help provide a spark.

Next up, I’ll play Crosby under 2.5 shots on goal.

Crosby doesn’t have a shot on goal in the tournament.

While his playmaking ability was on display with three assists in the opener, Crosby’s been limited by a forearm injury that has resulted in him playing on the wing versus his natural centre spot.

Crosby is one of the best in the world in the face-off circle, but he’s differed draws and been limited to four total shot attempts through two games.

Remember, Crosby could still deliver as an elite playmaker and leader without shooting the puck on net three or more times in a Canada win.

Finally, I’ll lock in Artturi Lehkonen 2+ shots on goal +100.

This bet has cashed by the second period in each of Finland’s first two games of the tournament.

As a heavy underdog, there’s a chance Finland is playing from behind for a decent portion of this game.

Lehkonen will continue to benefit from playing top-six minutes and should be able to hit the net at least twice again in another must-win game for Finland.

Hopefully, MacKinnon scores two or more goals, Crosby registers two or more assists on two or fewer shots, and Lehkonen registers two or more shots in a Canada win.

That’s the formula for another FanDuel Best Bets sweep.

It’s also a formula that would result in Canada advancing to face USA in the championship game of the 4 Nations Face-Off on Thursday.

It wouldn’t get any better than that.

Enjoy the games, everyone.