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​Who can blame NFL fans hoping for a plot twist?

The two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs are three wins away from completing an unprecedented championship three-peat.

The Chiefs entered the regular season as the obvious betting favourite to win it all again at +500 at FanDuel.

I locked in Kansas City as my pre-season Super Bowl pick.

While I’m sticking with the Chiefs as my pick to win it all, it seems like everybody I talk to these days has another team circled as their Super Bowl champion.

The Detroit Lions are now the favourite at +290.

Shout out to my guys Drew Morrison and Chris Brieda for their unwavering faith in the Lions through a 15-2 season.

I also chatted with my guy Luke Bellus this morning and I know he will be rooting for Detroit to win it all with a couple of significant futures tickets pending.

Then there’s the resident Bills Mafia members Tekeyah Singh and Shaun Sinclair, who remain steadfast in their belief that Josh Allen will lead the Buffalo Bills to a Super Bowl ring.

The Philadelphia Eagles and Baltimore Ravens remain popular picks among the top four choices to win it all at FanDuel this morning.

On Tuesday, we asked our audience whether they think the traders at FanDuel got it right with their updated Super Bowl odds entering the NFL Divisional Round.

While there’s a case to be made for multiple teams as legitimate Super Bowl contenders, there’s one team that I trust above the rest to get to NFL Championship Sunday.

I’m sticking with Kansas City as my Super Bowl pick.

I’ve also bet the Chiefs to reach the AFC Championship.

This is the Morning Coffee for Wednesday January 15th, 2025.

Chiefs Set To Continue Quest For Historic Three-Peat

The Chiefs are three wins away from becoming the first team in NFL history to win three straight Super Bowls.

I can understand the case for a couple of other teams to end Kansas City’s historic run this postseason.

 

At the same time, I bet against it happening on Saturday.

Patrick Mahomes is 6-0 outright in the Divisional Round.

That’s already the most wins without a loss by a QB in any playoff round in NFL history.

The Chiefs have reached six straight AFC Championships.

This weekend, Andy Reid could become just the fourth head coach in NFL history to reach 300 career wins.

 

Mahomes can match Joe Montana for the second-most quarterback playoff wins all-time with 16, trailing only Tom Brady (35) in that department.

In five starts against the Houston Texans, Mahomes has posted an 85.3 Total QBR.

That’s the second-highest Total QBR by any QB against a single opponent since that metric was first introduced.

For as impressive as the Houston defence looked in its Wild Card Weekend win over the Los Angeles Chargers, a trip to Kansas City to face a rested, prepared 15-win No. 1 seed with Mahomes at quarterback will be different.

 

Reid is 29-5 all-time with an extra week to prepare.

Mahomes has thrown 13 touchdowns without a single pick while going 6-0 in the Divisional Round.

The Chiefs franchise QB is also comfortable in the winter weather conditions that the game will be played in.

 

Mahomes is 7-1 all-time in playoff games when the temperatures are freezing at kick-off.

Contrast that with a Texans franchise that plays indoors and has never won a playoff game in freezing temperatures (0-4).

Houston is 0-5 all-time in the Divisional Round.

Kansas City has struggled to cover big spreads all season, going 0-7 ATS as a favourite of more than a touchdown.

However, the Chiefs are also a perfect 7-0 straight up when they’re a heavy favourite, which would make them an ideal Same Game Parlay leg in those scenarios.

That’s how I’m going to approach my FanDuel Best Bet.

I’ll take Kansas City to win outright, Xavier Worthy to record 25+ receiving yards, and Marquise Brown to record 25+ receiving yards on an SGP at +101 odds.

 

I’ll also lock in the Chiefs to win, Travis Kelce 4+ receptions, and the Eagles to beat the Los Angeles Rams outright at +113 odds.

Two more FanDuel Best Bets before I go: Samaje Perine over 8.5 receiving yards and Perine over 1.5 receptions.

I also sprinkled on Perine 25+ receiving yards at +440.

For a full list of my FanDuel Best Bets for the NFL Divisional Round, make sure you give me a follow @Domenic_Padula on X.

Have a great day, everyone!