Morning Coffee: Daniels, Commanders brace for NFC Championship showdown with Eagles

A football team’s identity anchors its purpose.

The first step towards an NFL team becoming a championship contender is defining that identity.

The Washington Commanders went 4-13 last season.

After failing to register a winning season for the third consecutive year, new owner Josh Harris leaned on his NBA background and hired former two-time NBA Executive of the Year Bob Myers to rebuild the franchise.

The Commanders hired Adam Peters as general manager and Dan Quinn as head coach.

With the second overall pick in pocket, Washington’s new brain trust went to work in the offseason, signing several key free agents including Austin Ekeler, Zach Ertz, Olamide Zaccheaus, Jeremy McNichols, Nick Allegretti, Tyler Biadasz and backup quarterback Marcus Mariota.

The Commanders also added key defensive free agents including Bobby Wagner, Frankie Luvu, Dante Fowler Jr., and Jeremy Chinn, and Clelin Ferrell.

With a strong foundation in place, Washington selected quarterback Jayden Daniels with the second overall pick.

The Commanders overhauled their front office, their coaching staff, and a good portion of their roster as the new brain trust established a new identity and culture.

That focus resulted in a remarkable one-year turnaround, as Washington tripled its regular-season win total and advanced to the NFC Championship following upset wins over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Detroit Lions.

For perspective, their regular season win total was 6.5 at FanDuel this summer.

Of course, there’s a chance that none of that would have been possible if the Commanders didn’t select an elite QB talent in Daniels with the second overall pick.

Daniels is the overwhelming favourite to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year at FanDuel and he made a compelling case as one of the best quarterbacks in the entire NFL already.

Next up, Washington will face its toughest test yet.

The Commanders have the longest odds to win the Super Bowl of the remaining four contenders.

After defying the odds to reach the NFC Championship, it will take another epic upset for Washington to advance to the Super Bowl on Sunday.

This is the Morning Coffee for Tuesday January 21st, 2025.

Daniels, Commanders Brace For NFC Championship Showdown With Eagles

The Philadelphia Eagles are a 5.5-point favourite for the NFC Championship at FanDuel.

The Commanders are +220 to pull off the upset win.

For perspective, Washington closed +138 at FanDuel ahead of its upset win over Tampa Bay and then +350 ahead of Saturday’s stunning victory in Detroit.

The Commanders have defied the odds all season just to reach the NFC Championship.

To go any further, they will need to find a way to slow down an opponent that also established a new identity this past offseason and hasn’t wavered since.

Following a disappointing regular season finish and an early playoff exit, the Eagles fired their coordinators and replaced them with Kellen Moore on offence and Vic Fangio on defence.

They also made one of the biggest splashes of the offseason when they signed free agent running back Saquon Barkley to a three-year contract.

In his first season in Philadelphia, Barkley led the NFL with 2,005 rushing yards – the eighth-best single-season mark in NFL history.

Barkley averaged a remarkable 125.3 scrimmage yards per game and led the NFL with 2,283 total yards.

After rushing for 119 yards in a Wild Card weekend win over the Green Bay Packers, Barkley exploded for 232 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns in the Eagles’ win over the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday.

As somebody who was very excited about Barkley’s potential against the Rams, I was thrilled by the results.

Despite having one of the best wide receiver tandems in the NFL, Philly has established an identity as a run-first team with an elite running back and a quarterback with exceptional mobility.

All you need to do is peek at FanDuel’s rushing props for Barkley and Jalen Hurts to get a good idea of what the expectation is for Sunday’s game against the Commanders.

Barkley’s rushing prop is currently 125.5.

Hurts’ rushing prop is 28.5.

First, I’ll lock in the over on both props as FanDuel Best Bets for Championship Sunday.

Second, I’ll explain why I believe the Eagles will continue to have success on the ground.

While they made marginal improvements on defence, Washington allowed an average of 113.8 rushing yards to opposing running backs per game this season.

That was the fourth-worst mark in the entire NFL.

In two games against the Commanders this season, Barkley averaged 148.0 rushing yards.

He also scored two rushing touchdowns in both games.

After giving up 105 yards and two rushing touchdowns to Jahmyr Gibbs on just 14 carries on Saturday, Washington will be in tough to slow down Barkley this weekend.

Meanwhile, Hurts over 28.5 rushing yards is 2-for-2 so far this postseason.

Hurts has seemed even less willing to throw the football downfield in the playoffs, averaging just 129.5 passing yards in Philadelphia’s two wins.

Meanwhile, he would have only needed one run to go over 29.5 rushing yards in Sunday’s win over the Rams.

After rushing for 39 yards and 41 yards in two meetings with Washington during the regular season, I think Hurts runs for at least 30 yards again this Sunday.

Give me Barkley over 125.5 rushing yards as a FanDuel Best Bet.

Give me Hurts over 29.5 rushing yards as a FanDuel Best Bet.

Nobody is overlooking the potential for Daniels and the Commanders to pull off another upset win.

At the same time, Eagles versus Kansas City Chiefs was my prediction for the exact Super Bowl match-up before the season started, so I’ll stick with Philadelphia to take care of business in the NFC Championship.

The front office, coaching staff, and players in Washington deserve a ton of credit for their remarkable turnaround.

The first step was establishing an identity and culture.

The Eagles were considered closer to contending than the Commanders in the offseason.

That didn’t stop them from overhauling their identity.

The addition of Barkley has had major implications.

I expect that to continue in the NFC Championship.