Morning Coffee: Does the Goff MVP hype hold up against the stats?

The first edition of the College Football Playoff rankings in the 12-team era were released on Tuesday.

As is always the case with any rankings in any sport, there was swift reaction to a couple of notable decisions.

For the first time ever, Oregon is the No. 1 ranked team in the College Football Playoff rankings.

Shout out to our guy Davis Sanchez after his old college debuted at the top of the list.

The Ducks are the third choice to win the national championship at FanDuel behind Ohio State and Georgia.

With just three regular-season games against unranked opponents remaining, there’s a very good chance that Oregon will be undefeated by the time they get to the Big Ten title game.

The Buckeyes, which remain the national title favourite at FanDuel this morning, debuted at No. 2 in the inaugural rankings behind the Ducks.

Miami, which is currently the fifth choice to win the College Football Playoff national championship at FanDuel, debuted at No. 4 in the rankings ahead of Texas in their highest ranking since 2017.

Meanwhile, Indiana debuted at No. 8 in the rankings.

The Hoosiers are -250 to make the College Football Playoff at FanDuel this morning.

Per the FanDuel traders, Indiana has garnered the most action in their odds to make the playoff market since Saturday’s win over Michigan State.

While statistics provide the foundation for building out the College Football Playoff rankings, the final decisions always depend on the interpretations of those numbers.

With several stops before the inaugural 12-team playoff, there’s bound to be several changes to the rankings before the dance eventually gets underway this winter.\

That’s part of the reason why I refrained from reaction.

Another reason is that at the time I was busy watching the Winnipeg Jets beat up on the Utah Hockey Team en route to cashing another FanDuel Best Bet in this column.

In case you missed it, the best bets improved to 9-1 dating back to last Monday.

Not bad for a quick read during your morning coffee.

For the most part, I try to ignore getting caught up in debates regarding rankings in sports.

There will always be exceptions.

Occasionally, I hear something so egregious that I just can’t help but weigh in.

This is the Morning Coffee for Wednesday November 6th, 2024.

Does The Goff MVP Hype Hold Up Against The Stats?

The sports media landscape is in a strange place.

On the one hand, we are in an unprecedented era defined by seemingly endless streams of available data that we can use to help shape an accurate perspective of the sports that we consume.

On the other hand, it seems like fewer people than ever are willing to dive into that data and unpack it, opting for hot takes and flashy opinions instead of real in-depth analysis with any substance.

The problem for some of us is that when you watch the film and research the data, it’s easy to spot the analysts and commentators who aren’t being genuine.

You can quickly tell who is putting on an act.

The Detroit Lions are a legitimate Super Bowl contender.

That would not be the case if they didn’t have a capable quarterback putting up impressive numbers behind a solid line in an offence that is loaded with talented playmakers at the skill positions.

In fact, Jared Goff and the Lions have been so good through the first nine weeks of the NFL season that he is now in the NFL regular season MVP conversation.

Specifically, Goff is currently the fourth choice to win MVP at +800 odds at FanDuel.

As it stands this morning, I have no problem with Goff being a top five choice to win NFL regular season MVP.

I was amazed when a colleague forwarded me this clip of Stephen A. Smith making the case for Goff as the MVP favourite.

Yes, Goff is the first quarterback in NFL history to complete 80 per cent of his passes over a six-game span.

Yes, the Lions own the NFC’s best record at 7-1.

Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Patrick Mahomes are the top three choices to win NFL MVP at FanDuel.

No, Goff does not deserve to be ranked ahead of any of them in that market.

In this case, we find ourselves at the unique intersection between that unprecedented flow of available statistics and the potential danger that comes with using one or two numbers as the foundation for a hot take that doesn’t account for several other variables.

Let’s start with the obvious when it comes to the case against Goff for NFL regular season MVP.

22 NFL quarterbacks have started every one of their team’s games this season.

Of those 22 quarterbacks, Goff ranks 22nd in total pass attempts.

15 NFL quarterbacks have averaged more completions per game than Goff this season.

That list includes Daniel Jones, Joe Flacco, rookies Caleb Williams and Bo Nix.

Yes, Goff has been extremely efficient when he has passed, registering a league-best 74.9 per cent completion rate.

Maybe, just maybe, it would be a little lower if he was forced to throw the football a little more often?

The problem with anointing him the MVP based on completion percentage is that he’s attempting fewer passes than any other full-time QB in the league.

Plus, when he does throw the football, he’s averaged just 4.4 air yards per attempt, which also ranks in the bottom third among full-time NFL starters.

In Sunday’s win over the Green Bay Packers, Goff went 18-of-22 for 145 yards and a touchdown.

The Lions sixth-ranked rushing attack, which features an elite one-two punch in running backs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Mongtomery, ran for 124 yards and a touchdown.

A remarkable 19 of Goff’s 22 pass attempts travelled five or fewer air yards downfield.

The 3.3 air yards per attempt matched the second-lowest single-game mark in his entire career.

It was the third consecutive week in which Goff posted a lower passer rating and a lower average yards per attempt than the previous game.

In fact, his odds to win MVP at FanDuel actually jumped from +600 to +800 after that performance.

It was the fourth straight game that Goff has gone under on his passing yards prop – the longest active streak among starting quarterbacks.

The under on his completions prop has hit in six straight games – the longest active streak among starting QBs.

Again, I absolutely agree that Goff deserves to be recognized for his impressive efficiency at the QB position for a team that has won seven of its first eight games and is a legitimate Super Bowl contender.

Yes, Goff deserves to be in the MVP conversation.

There’s just no way you can tell me at this point with a straight face that he deserves to be the MVP favourite over the actual current co-favourites Allen and Jackson.

As for a FanDuel Best Bet, we’ll look to pick up where we left off on Thursday morning as we try to build on an 9-1 run over the last two weeks.

Have a great day, everyone!