Morning Coffee: Eagles a popular bet in TNF showdown versus Commanders

The Washington Commanders’ inevitable regression has been a popular theme among NFL analysts and bettors throughout the first 10 weeks of the season.

After a long wait, it appears it could finally be here.

Washington is coming off just its third loss of the season after a narrow 28-27 defeat by the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday.

Four days later, rookie phenom Jayden Daniels and the Commanders are set for their toughest test of the year on the road against a division rival on a short week.

The Philadelphia Eagles opened -3 for tonight’s NFC East showdown with Washington at FanDuel.

Despite failing to cover the spread in each of their previous three home games, the spread for tonight’s game has jumped from Philly -3 to -3.5 at FanDuel.

The Eagles were the pre-season favourite to win their division. 

With a half-game lead over the Commanders for first place in the NFC East, Philly is a much bigger favourite to win its division this morning than it was before Week 1.

That’s in large part because most football fans expect Jalen Hurts and company to eventually pull away from Washington at the top of the NFC East.

So it should be no surprise that the Eagles are a popular pick to beat the Commanders on Thursday Night Football.

This is the Morning Coffee for Thursday, November 14th, 2024.

Eagles A Popular Bet In TNF Showdown Versus Commanders

It didn’t take very long to realize that Daniels and the Commanders were primed to exceed expectations in his rookie season.

Anybody who watched the film from Washington’s wins over the New York Giants and Cincinnati Bengals earlier this season would have been impressed with the tape.

After watching Daniels put up impressive numbers in those early victories, I bet the Commanders to cover against the Arizona Cardinals and Cleveland Browns.

At the time, I was told that I was buying high on Washington despite the inevitable regression that I was supposedly overlooking.

As it turns out, Daniels and company had other ideas in mind, as the Commanders covered easily in back-to-back double-digit victories over Arizona and Cleveland.

After a narrow Week 6 loss to the Baltimore Ravens, Washington responded with three straight wins over inferior opponents in the Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears, and the New York Giants.

However, there were some signs of potential regression.

The Commanders needed a desperate Hail Mary touchdown pass at the end of their game against the Bears to escape with a victory by the narrowest of margins.

The following week, they let the Giants hang around in another narrow victory.

After a couple of close wins, Washington’s win streak finally came to an end in a 28-27 loss to Pittsburgh on Sunday.

Now Daniels and company face the tall task of bouncing back on the road and on a short week against a superior opponent after a very physical loss to the Steelers.

Considering the expectation for regression, it shouldn’t be a surprise that FanDuel bettors have faded them.

Per the FanDuel traders, 72 per cent of the bets are on Philadelphia to beat Washington tonight.

That has moved the moneyline price for Thursday Night Football from Eagles -164 to -200.

Meanwhile, the previous three meetings between these teams have all gone over the total.

It’s also not a surprise that the over has been a popular bet at FanDuel throughout the week.

In case you missed Wednesday’s column, we cashed another NBA/NHL SGP+ winner.

I also published my first two recommended plays for Thursday Night Football.

I like A.J. Brown to go over 80.5 receiving yards tonight.

I also like Saquon Barkley to rush for 60 or more yards in an Eagles win.

Understanding that the prices should continue to move on both bets right up until kick-off tonight, I tried to get ahead of the curve by locking them in early Wednesday.

As of the Commanders, we still don’t know if running back Brian Robinson Jr. will play tonight.

Obviously, the fact that he is dealing with an injury on a short week doesn’t help, and his status will also have an impact on the rest of the Washington player props.

We also just got some player props for DeVonta Smith, who is dealing with a hamstring injury but should be good to go.

Smith, who celebrates his 25th birthday today, should be in line for a big game if the hamstring injury doesn’t hamper him.

The last time the Eagles played on his birthday three years ago, Smith had four receptions for 66 yards and two touchdowns in a win over the Denver Broncos.

I’ll lock in an SGP with Smith 40+ receiving yards, Brown 40+ receiving yards, and Hurts 150+ passing yards at -120 odds as a FanDuel Best Bet.

I’ll also sprinkle on Smith anytime TD at +230.

Hopefully, the Eagles offence puts up some big numbers and Hurts finds the birthday boy for a touchdown. 

Have a great day, everyone!