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Morning Coffee: Falcons improbable win caps historic week for NFL underdogs
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Over the years, I’ve come to expect the unexpected in the National Football League.
Yet, every now and then, something so astonishing happens that it still manages to catch me off guard.
In Week 2, there were seven underdogs of three points or more at FanDuel that won their game outright.
That’s the most straight up wins by underdogs of three points or more in any week since 2021.
NFL underdogs of six points or more went a perfect 8-0 against the spread through the first two weeks.
They’ve covered the spread by an average of 9.5 points per game.
Meanwhile, the three biggest underdogs at FanDuel this season have all won their games outright.
It’s the first time since 2003 that three favourites of at least seven points all lost in the first two weeks of a season.
With the underdogs clinching a winning ATS week on Sunday, all of us in the betting department were a little suspicious when we saw the Philadelphia Eagles standing still at -5.5 against the Atlanta Falcons last night, despite 86 per cent of the stakes being on the favourite to cover.
None of us were surprised when Atlanta covered.
At the same time, the unforced errors that ultimately gave the Falcons a chance to win the game outright are moments that I won’t forget anytime soon.
This is the Morning Coffee for Tuesday September 17th, 2024.
Falcons Improbable Win Caps Historic Week For NFL Underdogs
In the NFL, the difference between winning and losing often comes down to a very fine margin for error.
Last night, we saw what can happen when a head coach affords his opponent additional opportunities to win with game-changing errors.
With 1:56 left in the fourth quarter on Monday Night Football, the NFL Next Gen Stats win probability model gave the Atlanta Falcons a 0.7 per cent chance to beat the Philadelphia Eagles.
10 seconds later, Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni made a series of decisions that ultimately led to the seventh-most improbable comeback win since Next Gen Stats started tracking win probability in 2016.
Facing a 3rd-and-3 with 1:46 left in regulation, Philly had an opportunity to run the football and wind the clock down an additional 40 seconds.
If they didn’t convert on third down, they’d still be able to run another play to potentially ice the game while keeping the clock moving.
At the time, the Eagles led by three points.
The only way to lose the game is to give up a touchdown.
At that point, Philly’s ultimate priority should have been to maintain possession as long as possible and wind the clock down as much as possible.
It’s that simple.
The best-case scenario is that one of two run plays results in the three yards needed to clinch the victory.
The worst-case scenario is that they run an additional 40+ seconds off the clock and give Atlanta the ball back inside its own 10 down a field goal.
Instead, Sirianni’s ensuing decisions resulted in the only possible scenario that would maximize the time left on the clock and set the Falcons up with the best possible field position with a clear requirement to do the one thing that would result in a loss: score a touchdown.
Sure, the game would have been over if star running back Saquon Barkley held on to a pass that hit him on the hands on third down.
Yes, the Eagles defence conceded one big play after another on a six-play, 70-yard touchdown drive with under two minutes to go.
The point is that at that stage in the game two run plays would give Philly two chances to end the game with a first down while removing the time Atlanta ultimately needed to complete the game-winning drive.
The Falcons’ game-winning TD drive took 1:05.
Even if the Eagles didn’t convert, which we’ll never know, two run plays would have drained the clock to under one minute and forced the Falcons to go 90+ yards for a go-ahead touchdown.
The right decision is to run the football on third down.
If they didn’t convert, the right decision is to run the football again on fourth down.
Kicking the field goal incentivizes the Falcons to go for the win versus trying to get in field goal range to tie it.
These might seem like small missteps, but those details ultimately led to the seventh-most unlikely comeback win we’ve seen in the NFL in at least the last eight seasons.
Atlanta closed +205 to beat Philadelphia at FanDuel, and could be found as high as +3000 to win outright in the fourth quarter.
It was the fourth-biggest upset in a week in which eight NFL underdogs won outright.
Kirk Cousins and company deserve a ton of credit for hanging around in Philly and ultimately pulling off one of several notable Week 2 upsets.
Still, in a league in which the margin between a win and a loss is often so slim, it’s impossible to ignore the errors that ultimately opened the door for Atlanta’s comeback win.