Morning Coffee: FanDuel bettors torn between Chiefs, Eagles to win Super Bowl LIX

In the NFL, there are good quarterbacks, there are great quarterbacks, and then there is that one quarterback that everybody would pick with the game on the line.

Talent matters, numbers matter, but when it comes to figuring out what separates the very best from the rest, you can circle the ability to consistently get the job done when it matters the most on the biggest stage.

That’s what separates Patrick Mahomes from the rest.

No quarterback has had more success in clutch situations.

Mahomes has started eight playoff games in which he’s either been the underdog or a favourite of less than three points at FanDuel. 

In those eight games, Mahomes has gone a perfect 8-0 straight up and against the spread.

Look at the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history – every one of them has a signature moment that fans who watched them will never forget.

How many of those signature moments will Mahomes have by the time his career is over?

The Kansas City Chiefs opened -1.5 for Super Bowl 59 against the Philadelphia Eagles at FanDuel.

Five days later, that number remains Kansas City -1.5.

While the Chiefs have the slight edge in terms of ATS bets at FanDuel, the Eagles have been the slightly more popular pick to win the Super Bowl outright this week. 

Considering their dominance in similar situations in recent years, it might come as a surprise to some that Mahomes and company haven’t been a more popular pick to win it all.

As it turns out, FanDuel bettors seem torn between whether it will be the Chiefs or the Eagles that come out on top at Super Bowl 59. 

This is the Morning Coffee for Friday January 31st, 2024.

FanDuel Bettors Torn Between Chiefs, Eagles To Win Super Bowl 59

Mahomes and the Chiefs are one win away from completing an unprecedented Super Bowl three-peat.

It’s fascinating that as they prepare to do something that’s never been done before, they find themselves in familiar territory for the biggest game of the year.

If the current number holds, it will mark the third straight Super Bowl in which the line closes exactly -1.5.

When these teams met at Super Bowl 57 two years ago, Philadelphia closed -1.5 in a game Kansas City ultimately won 38-35.

Then at Super Bowl 58, the San Francisco 49ers were -1.5 in a game the Chiefs won 25-22 in overtime.

This time around, it’s Kansas City is -1.5 for the rematch.

As I highlighted above, Mahomes is a perfect 8-0 straight up and against the spread in the playoffs as an underdog or a favourite of less than three points.

The Chiefs have won 17 straight games decided by one score – the longest streak in NFL history.

For perspective, no other team in NFL history has won more than 13 straight one-score games.

Mahomes has won four straight games when trailing in the fourth quarter.

He’s also a remarkable 17-3 straight up in the playoffs – a sparkling 85 per cent win rate.

While Kansas City’s inability to cover bigger spreads in the regular season has been well documented, it’s important to keep in mind that Mahomes has still won 22 of his previous 23 NFL starts outright.

I don’t think it’s possible to overstate how impressive it is to see an NFL quarterback deliver a 22-1 run.

In January and February, Mahomes is 16-2 straight up in games played at home or at a neutral site.

He’s 30-4 straight up when he has eight or more days to rest and prepare for an opponent. 

Despite Kansas City’s playoff success and Mahomes’ clutch performances in close games, only 58 per cent of the ATS bets at FanDuel are on the Chiefs to cover.

Meanwhile, 58 per cent of the money line bets are on Philadelphia to win outright at plus-money.

It’s also worth pointing out that FanDuel bettors are expecting a high scoring game, with the 86 per cent of the bets on the over.

Meanwhile, the most popular Super Bowl market at FanDuel over the past 24 hours is each team to score 1+ rushing touchdown and 1+ passing touchdown in each half at +7500.

A $10 wager would pay $750 if both teams score a rushing and a passing touchdown in both halves.

With so much focus on the Super Bowl, it will be interesting to see whether Kansas City becomes a more popular pick to win it all at FanDuel as we get closer to the big game next week.

The fact that 58 per cent of the spread bets on the Chiefs -1.5 and 58 per cent of the money line bets on the Eagles illustrates that FanDuel bettors aren’t convinced that Mahomes and company complete the three-peat.

Considering Mahomes’ consistency in clutch situations and this team’s ability to rise to the challenge in the biggest games repeatedly, I’m sticking with Kansas City as my pick to win the Super Bowl.

Then again, I wouldn’t be surprised by either outcome.

Apparently, that sentiment is shared by FanDuel bettors.