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Morning Coffee: How high is the ceiling for the Texans this season?
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The long wait is finally over.
Week 1 of the NFL season is here, and it is beautiful.
We’re just over 48 hours away from the kick-off game between the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday night.
There is a lot to catch up on between now and then.
Let’s start with the fact that CFL underdogs went 3-1 straight up and against the spread over the weekend..
That number includes the Winnipeg Blue Bombers beating the Saskatchewan Roughriders 35-33 for their fourth win in a row.
In case you missed it, I recommended a play on the Bombers to win the Grey Cup at +1000 following an awful start to the season.
Hopefully, the Zach Collaros injury isn’t serious.
Meanwhile, the situation is certainly serious in Tallahassee after the Florida State Seminoles lost to Boston College as a 16.5-point favourite last night.
The Seminoles are just the third team in the last 45 seasons to start 0-2 despite being a double-digit favourite in each of their first two games.
Florida State has gone from 80-to-1 to 600-to-1 to win the College Football Playoff National Championship at FanDuel.
The Seminoles are 25-to-1 just to make the playoff.
Speaking of upsets, Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic are out at the US Open, leaving the door wide open for Jannik Sinner to emerge as the favourite to win the title.
On the women’s side, Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek are on a collision course as the pre-tournament top two choices to win the title.
Then there is Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge, who are both chasing history entering the final stretch of the MLB regular season.
Ohtani is on pace to become the first player ever to hit 50 home runs and steal 50 bases in one season.
Judge is on pace to hit 60 home runs.
Ohtani and Judge are both rightfully considered locks to win their respective league MVP awards this season.
Meanwhile, the Chicago White Sox are on their way to a different type of history as they are on pace for the worst season in the history of the game.
As somebody who has faded the White Sox all season, it’s been the gift that just keeps on giving.
There’s certainly more to talk about this morning than I can fit into one column.
Considering the NFL season is finally upon us, it’s only appropriate to kick off the month with a FanDuel Best Bet for Week 1 as my lede.
This is the Morning Coffee for Tuesday September 3rd, 2024.
How High Is The Ceiling For The Texans This Season?
C.J. Stroud captivated the football world when he led the Houston Texans to an AFC South title and a home playoff win as a rookie last season.
Expectations are considerably higher this season, as only six NFL teams have shorter odds than Houston to win the Super Bowl at FanDuel.
After an impressive year, the Texans went all-in this offseason to upgrade their roster to capitalize on Stroud playing out his rookie contract at a discount price.
The additions of Stefon Diggs, Joe Mixon, Danielle Hunter, Denico Autry and Azeez Al-Shaair have helped push Houston into the Super Bowl contender conversation.
There are 16 games on the NFL Week 1 schedule.
The Texans are the only road team that is favoured.
Houston is currently a 2.5-point favourite against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 1.
I locked in a bet on Texans moneyline at -126.
Home underdogs have dominated in Week 1 division games in recent years, which is a big reason why there is only one of them this season.
However, Indianapolis is 1-14-1 against the spread in its previous 16 Week 1 games.
The Colts are also 0-4 ATS in their last four games as an underdog.
Anthony Richardson is back after missing most of last season with an injury.
While his ceiling is high, it’s going to take time for the offence to find its stride after he missed so much time.
A Week 1 match-up against the Texans will provide a tough test for Richardson and company.
Meanwhile, the Colts secondary is undoubtedly it’s biggest weakness.
It’s an ideal spot for Houston to roll out its new-look wide receiver core with Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Stefon Diggs.
No defence uses Cover-3 more than Indianapolis.
Meanwhile, no quarterback was more effective against Cover-3 than the rookie Stroud last season.
The Texans are my pick to win the AFC South and I think they are going to be a lot of fun to watch this season.
Hopefully, they don’t let me down on Sunday.
I’ll lock in Houston to earn a big division win over the Colts as a FanDuel Best Bet for Week 1.
CFL Underdogs Deliver Again In Week 13
The Blue Bombers set the tone for Week 13 with an upset win in Saskatchewan on Saturday night.
The Hamilton Tiger-Cats and Edmonton Elks followed suit with a pair of upset wins to cap off an entertaining Labour Day Weekend slate.
CFL underdogs went 3-1 straight up and against the spread in Week 13, improving to 9-3 ATS over the past three weeks.
Keep that number in mind when you bet on the CFL Week 14 slate at FanDuel.
Dart, Ward The Biggest Week 1 Winners In Heisman Market
Oregon’s Dillon Gabriel entered Week 1 of the NCAA football season as the Heisman Trophy favourite.
He has some company at the top following a pair of impressive performances.
Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart’s odds to win the Heisman were cut from +1400 to +850 at FanDuel after he threw for 418 yards and five touchdowns in a 76-0 win over Fulham.
Miami QB Cameron Ward threw for 385 yards and three touchdowns in a 41-17 win over Florida.
Dart, Ward, and Gabriel are all co-favourites to win the Heisman at +850 this morning.
All eyes will be on that trio once again in Week 2.
White Sox Slide Continues In Baltimore
It’s been a lot of fun watching Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge chase history this season.
Admittedly, I’ve enjoyed watching the Chicago White Sox just as much.
The White Sox have lost 11 in a row and are sitting at 31-108 entering the final stretch of the regular season.
Chicago is on pace to finish with the most losses in a single season in MLB history.
On Monday, the White Sox lost to the Baltimore Orioles as the biggest underdog this season.
It won’t get any easier for them in the rematch with Baltimore tonight.
As somebody who bet the under on Chicago’s win total at 61.5, 50.5 and 45.5, I’m thrilled to see their in-season adjusted win total sitting at 38.5 and juiced to the under this morning at FanDuel.
Hopefully, the Orioles, Boston Red Sox, and the Cleveland Guardians can help me out over the next week and keep that number from climbing above 38.5.
Have a great day, everyone!