Morning Coffee: Lions, Chiefs defy the odds with thrilling Week 10 wins

Great teams find ways to win ugly football games.

If you’ve been a fan of the game for long enough, chances are that you’ve heard that expression before.

For the record, I’m fine with broadcasters using cliches, especially when they are an accurate reflection of reality.

So long as they’re not advising the betting public to back Jared Goff as the favourite to win NFL regular season MVP at FanDuel.

I’m a strong supporter of Responsible Gaming and encouraging anybody to back Goff as MVP at any point seemed egregiously irresponsible to me.

Goff attempted 30+ passes for just the second time this season against the Houston Texans on Sunday Night Football.

He completed only 50 per cent of his attempts and threw a career-high five interceptions.

The good news for Detroit Lions fans is that great teams find ways to win ugly games, and that’s exactly what happened last night. 

The Lions rallied with an epic comeback to beat the Texans, becoming the first team in NFL history to throw five interceptions and win after trailing by 16 points at halftime.

Aaron Glenn’s defence stepped up big time in his return to Houston, an elite ground game flashed after half, and Goff made some impressive throws down the stretch.

Detroit improved to 8-1 this season – matching their best start through nine games in franchise history.

Goff still ranks second in the NFL with a 71.8 per cent completion rate.

However, it’s still worth flagging that he’s only completed 58 per cent of his attempts in two games in which he’s been forced to attempt at least 30 passes.

Any Lions fan will tell you this morning that they want to see the under hit on the Goff pass attempts prop as often as possible moving forward.
That’s not a bad thing, either, as Goff has been an excellent game manager for multiple seasons.

Detroit is the favourite to win the NFC Championship.

As long as they stay healthy and stick to their identity, the Lions will have as good a chance as any team to reach the Super Bowl out of the NFC.

After all, great teams find ways to win ugly football games.

And there’s nothing wrong with that.

This is the Morning Coffee for Monday, November 11th, 2024.

Lions, Chiefs Defy The Odds With Thrilling Week 10 Wins

Over the last 50 years, only two teams have won a road game after their quarterback threw five picks.

In 2007, the Dallas Cowboys beat the Buffalo Bills at Orchard Park after Tony Romo threw five interceptions.

Last night, the Lions beat the Texans in Houston after Goff was picked off five times.

Entering Sunday, teams that threw five or more interceptions and trailed by 15 or more points had gone a combined 1-373-1 since INTs were first tracked in 1933.

The fact that Detroit was able to overcome the turnovers to secure another crucial victory in a hostile environment in a road prime-time game is a testament to the team’s talent and resilience.

It’s also a big reason why only one NFL team has shorter odds to win the Super Bowl than the Lions at FanDuel.

Coincidentally, that one team also found a way to hang on for the win in an ugly game on Sunday.

The two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs improved to 9-0 after linebacker Leo Chenal blocked a potential 35-yard game-winning field goal with one second left in regulation against the Denver Broncos.

The Chiefs became the first team since 1999 to block a potential game-winning field goal of 35 yards or shorter on the final play of regulation. 

It was Kansas City’s seventh straight win in a game in which they trailed in the fourth quarter – the second-longest streak in NFL history.

Patrick Mahomes improved to 19-14 in his career in games that he has trailed by double digits at any point.

The Chiefs have now won 15 consecutive games dating back to last season, which is the longest win streak by any team since the Green Bay Packers won 19 straight games from 2010 to 2011.

As somebody with a bet on Kansas City to win outright in each of the last two weeks, I’m consistently amazed at their ability to turn it on and find a way to win a game even when it looks like they could be in trouble.

The same is true about Detroit’s comeback last night.

The Chiefs and Lions are the top two choices to win the Super Bowl at FanDuel this morning.

What a treat it would be to see two great teams go head-to-head and try to find a way to win on the game’s biggest stage in February.

A FanDuel Best Bet For Monday Night Football

Week 10 wraps up tonight with the Los Angeles Rams trying to secure their fourth straight win at home against the Miami Dolphins.

I bet the Rams -1.5 earlier in the week and would play them up to -2.5 as a FanDuel Best Bet.

LA has already secured a pair of impressive wins over the San Francisco 49ers and the Minnesota Vikings at home.

While everything seems to be clicking for a Rams team that is finally getting healthy, it seems like the opposite is true for a Miami team that has lost three in a row.

From a player prop perspective, it seems strange to me that Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle haven’t been able to get going over the past couple of weeks.

Both players have dealt with injuries and Hill is being called “a true game-time decision” for tonight’s game.

I expect tight end Jonnu Smith to pick up the slack once again this week with another strong performance.

Smith has averaged a team-high 5.3 receptions for 54.0 yards over the past three games.

I’ll lock in Smith over 3.5 receptions as a FanDuel Best Bet.

I’ll also lock in a builder Same Game Parlay with De’Von Achane to get 4+ receptions and Cooper Kupp to get 40+ receiving yards, and Puka Nacua 4+ receptions at +114.

Achane has six or more receptions in every game that Tua has started this season. 

He’s averaged 7.0 receptions for 54.0 yards and a touchdown over the past two weeks.

I’ll bank on him to get four or more receptions tonight.

Meanwhile, Kupp has 51 or more receiving yards in every game that he’s started and finished this season.

That includes 100 or more receiving yards in two of those three games.

As for Nacua, he should be motivated after getting ejected in last week’s win over the Seattle Seahawks.,

In his last full game, he had seven catches for 106 yards on nine targets in a win over the Minnesota Vikings.

Matthew Stafford’s over/under is 250.5 passing yards, and there’s no reason to believe that Kupp and Nacua won’t account for a good chunk of that number.

To recap, here are my FanDuel Best Bets for Monday Night Football:

Rams -1.5 over Dolphins
Jonnu Smith over 3.5 receptions
SGP: Achane 4+ receptions | Kupp 40+ receiving | Nacua 4+ receptions

Hopefully, we can deliver another NFL prime-time game sweep tonight.

In the meantime, I hope anybody that reads this takes a moment to pause and honour the courage and sacrifices of those who served in our armed forces. 

Their unwavering commitment echoes through history, reminding us of the cost of the liberties we enjoy. 

Let’s take the time to remember not just their service but also the families who have endured losses.

Whether through a moment of silence or wearing a poppy, let’s unite in gratitude and ensure their legacy is never forgotten. 

Lest we forget.