Morning Coffee: Mahomes’ mobility will be key to Chiefs Super Bowl success

Good teams win, great teams cover.

What about that team that just keeps winning rings?

If you need any more proof that betting has transcended sports, consider the the Kansas City Chiefs as Exhibit A.

The Chiefs have won nine straight playoff games – one shy of the longest streak in the history of the NFL.

They’re also the first two-time defending Super Bowl champion to make it all the way back to the biggest stage for a third year in a row.

And they got to Super Bowl 59 with a remarkable 17-1 record in games that Patrick Mahomes started.

Mahomes and company keep winning, but because they don’t win “big enough”, some fans genuinely believe that Kansas City has “struggled” to a certain degree.

The Chiefs are the eighth team to reach the Super Bowl despite a losing record against the spread.

In fact, their 8-11 ATS record is the second-worst mark by a Super Bowl participant in NFL history.

The previous six teams that went to the Super Bowl with a losing ATS record went 2-5 straight up and 3-4 ATS.

I get it.

The problem with applying that specific historical data to the analysis of this specific Super Bowl is simple.

None of those previous teams was a modern-day dynasty built around the most dominant QB in the league.

Mahomes has led Kansas City to seven straight AFC Championship games, four Super Bowl appearances, and a pair of Super Bowl rings before turning 30. 

He’s already tied Joe Montana for the second-most playoff wins by a quarterback in NFL history with a remarkable 17-3 record.

He’s won 85 per cent of his postseason games!

The Chiefs are the gold standard in the NFL.

Then again, because Kansas City didn’t cover the number often enough during the regular season, it was easier for football fans to forget that they’ll be the team to beat every January for as long as Mahomes is the quarterback and Andy Reid is the head coach.

The only way the most dominant team in football could ever be considered an underachiever is to evaluate their performance against the number above all else.

Even then, I’m compelled to point out Kansas City is on an impressive 4-1 ATS run with Mahomes at quarterback.

I digress.

Betting culture has changed the way we talk about the game.

Lines move, odds shifts, and trends come and go, but they can’t all be applied to narratives the same way.

Context is key.

The Chiefs play for wins, not margins – because at the end of the day, legacies aren’t built on spreads, they’re built on rings.

That will never change.

This is the Morning Coffee for Wednesday January 29th, 2025.

Mahomes’ Mobility Will Be Key To Chiefs Super Bowl Success 

Patrick Mahomes is an elite dual-threat quarterback.

The fact that he can choose when he wants to lean on his mobility and run the football is a testament to his talent.

It also adds another layer to the Kansas City offence.

Remember this?

Mahomes can drop back and beat teams through the air with his elite arm strength and accuracy.

He could also use his mobility to extend plays and buy time for his receivers to get open before whipping the ball downfield.

Then there is his ability to take off and run for a first down, which we saw on display in the AFC Championship win over the Buffalo Bills on Sunday.

Mahomes had a season-high 11 rush attempts in the win.

He ran for 43 yards and two touchdowns in a game that was ultimately decided by three points.

Those numbers include minus-six yards in kneel downs.

Mahomes might not put his body on the line just to make sure Kansas City covers the spread in a Week 7 game, but you can expect him to do whatever it takes to get the job done when it matters the most.

Context is key.

In the Super Bowl 57 win over the Philadelphia Eagles, Mahomes ran the football six times for 44 yards, including a 26-yard run.

Those numbers include minus-seven yards in kneel downs.

In last year’s Super Bowl win over the San Francisco 49ers, he ran the football nine times for 66 yards, including a 22-yard run.

Those numbers include minus-15 yards in kneel downs.

FanDuel set the Mahomes rushing prop at 28.5 yards.

That number isn’t much higher than his longest run in either of the previous two Super Bowls.

The Eagles defence didn’t give up a ton of rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks this season, but they didn’t play many QBs with elite rushing ability.

Jayden Daniels went for 48 or more yards in two of his three games against Philadelphia.

Lamar Jackson had 79 rushing yards on eight carries against the Eagles in Week 13.

I’m not confident Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt will be able to run the football efficiently in the Super Bowl.

This Philly defence represents the toughest challenge Mahomes and the Chiefs will face this postseason.

With two weeks to prepare, I fully expect Reid to have some tricks up his sleeve to attack potential areas of weakness the same way that he attacked the Buffalo defence.

As was the case against the Bills, it will be important for Reid to establish Mahomes as a runner early in the game in order to force the Eagles defence to account for it.

Even accounting for kneel downs, 30+ rushing yards seems like a decent floor for Mahomes.

I’ll lock in Mahomes over 28.5 rushing yards as a FanDuel Best Bet for Super Bowl 59.

Have a great day, everyone.