Feb 23, 2024
Morning Coffee: Matthews, Leafs continue to roll; Stanley Cup odds haven’t moved
Another goal by Auston Matthews once again created a shift in the Hart Trophy market, and after sitting at 14-1 at this time last week, he now has the second shortest odds to win at +230. But FanDuel isn't rushing to adjust Toronto's number to win the Stanley Cup.
By Luke Bellus
This has been a fun experience.
When Domenic Padula told our group he was taking this week off, I threw my hat in the mix to stickhandle Morning Coffee while he was away.
I knew it would be a fun challenge to test myself, and I wanted to see if I could make this column look and feel as easy as Dom has done for almost four years.
I failed.
This isn’t easy. It’s not plug-and-play. You need to have your finger on the pulse of the entire world of sports and find a different and unique way to present your information daily.
Two days in, I was kicking myself. I led with Auston Matthews on Monday, and I did the same on Tuesday. Suddenly, I was in jeopardy of becoming the Auston Matthews Network. All Matthews, all the time.
It’s a trap into which Dom wouldn’t have fallen. He would’ve seen the calendar clearer than I did and would’ve found a different and better way to present it.
I have a long way to go as a writer, and I think we could all take some inspiration from Mr. Padula and his work ethic.
For now, though, I just appreciate that he trusted me with the keys to his car, the house he built and a slow cooker that would put your mother's to shame.
This is the Morning Coffee for Friday, Feb. 23.
Matthews scores… again
Death. Taxes. And Auston Matthews anytime goal.
The 26-year-old did it again last night, scoring his 53rd of the season in a 7-3 statement victory by Toronto over the defending Stanley Cup champions, the Vegas Golden Knights.
The goal by Matthews once again created a shift in the Hart Trophy market and, after sitting at 14-1 at this time last week, he now has the second shortest odds to win at +230.
Matthews’ Hart odds seemingly creep lower and lower with every goal he scores. However, the fine folks at FanDuel aren’t getting carried away with the Toronto Maple Leafs hype just yet.
Despite a six-game winning streak, the Leafs odds to win the Stanley Cup remain at 14-1, the same number you could find on Feb. 6 before this heater began.
It’s a subtle reminder that this team has only one playoff series win during Matthews’ eight-year tenure in Toronto and still has a lot to prove come the postseason.
Around the Horn
The New York Rangers continue to be the hottest team in hockey, extending their win streak to nine games last night with a 5-1 win over the New Jersey Devils.
The Rangers are currently +1100 to win the Stanley Cup and -260 to win the Metropolitan Division.
They hold a four-point lead over the Carolina Hurricanes and are 11 points clear of the third-place Philadelphia Flyers.
Meanwhile, in the NBA, the Charlotte Hornets won outright in Utah as nine-and-a-half point underdogs. Why does that matter? Because the TSN Betting basketball team, mainly our guy Wesley Cheng, was all over it.
Earlier this week, Wes highlighted three teams in Setting The Pick. He was buying stock in Charlotte and fading Utah.
Lo and behold, they meet on the first night of the restart from the All-Star break and I’m waking up to a +330 winner on FanDuel.
I tried to warn you yesterday to go back and read it so you could get in on the action. Today I’ll encourage you to wait until mid-afternoon and read his latest edition.
F1 markets on the move
It didn’t take long for Max Verstappen and Red Bull to remind everyone they have the best car on the grid.
Verstappen was a full second faster than anyone else in the first testing session of the season, and the outright markets were quick to adjust.
On Wednesday, I highlighted Verstappen’s odds to win the Drivers' and Red Bull’s short odds to win the Constructor Championship.
Verstappen was -380 and he’s now -600.
Red Bull was -480 and they’re now -550.
Earlier this week, FanDuel was offering season-long driver matchups. They appear to be the perfect markets for staying interested in a season where it might not be that competitive at the top once again.
With testing underway once again on Friday, those markets have been pulled down.
But give me a few weeks, and let me chat with my F1 guy - Steven Mendoza - and I’ll get back to you with some winners in those markets.
The King of Paspalum
Erik van Rooyen was lights out in the opening round of the Mexico Open, firing a day-best round of 63 to lead the event by one stroke after 18 holes.
The round for van Rooyen is his first on paspalum grass since he fired a Sunday nine-under at El Cardonal at Diamante to win the World Wide Technology Championship in November.
Some are starting to call him the King of Paspalum.
Ok fine, it’s me and a few buddies, but I had EVR outright that week in November at 75-1 and yesterday had him at 45-1 to be the first-round leader!
Thank you, EVR.
Note to future Luke and all other golf bettors: Don’t forget about the grass. The grass is important.
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Appreciate everyone joining me this week for Morning Coffee. Dom will be back on Monday for our regularly scheduled program.