Morning Coffee: One key insight for each NFL Divisional Round game

It’s always a smart bet to invest in the Divisional Round as one of the best weekends of the NFL season.

With just over 24 hours to go before kick-off, the anticipation continues to build with the realization that by the time the weekend is over there will be only four teams left standing for Championship Sunday.

If you’re a regular reader or you follow me on X, then you know that I’ve been building my full betting card for the NFL Divisional Round since late Sunday night.

It made sense to jump on some numbers early.

Lamar Jackson’s rushing attempts prop opened at 7.5.

It’s been bet up to 9.5, although it’s now juiced to the under at -120.

Jackson’s rushing yards prop has climbed from 47.5 to 53.5 at FanDuel.

The rushing yards props for Josh Allen and C.J. Stroud have both ticked up as well.

Meanwhile, Hollywood Brown’s receiving yards prop for Saturday’s game against the Houston Texans is up from 36.5 to 41.5 at FanDuel.

I’ve already seen it as high as 42.5 at one sportsbook.

At the very least, that type of movement creates the chance to buy back the other way and set up a small middle opportunity for anybody who is on the over.

While I’ve already locked in several FanDuel Best Bets, I’m still looking to add to my card for this weekend.

This morning, I’ll review one additional bet to consider for each game based on some key match-up angles.

This is the Morning Coffee for Friday January 17th, 2025.

One Key Insight For Each NFL Divisional Round Game

The Kansas City Chiefs are the two-time defending Super Bowl champions.

After entering the year as the obvious betting favourite to pull off an unprecedented three-peat, all the Chiefs did was win 15 games, lock up home-field advantage and a first-round playoff bye as the AFC’s No. 1 seed.

That’s important because it gave a veteran team that has done it before the opportunity to rest and game plan for their path through the AFC playoffs.

Nobody should benefit more than Travis Kelce.

The 35-year-old Kelce is coming off a relatively down year by his standards, but he still finished the year with five or more catches in five of his final six regular season games.

The addition of Hollywood Brown, the maturation of rookie first-round pick Xavier Worthy, and the return of Isiah Pacheco will force the Texans defence to account for more weapons when they visit Kansas City on Saturday.

Kelce, who had five catches for 30 yards on seven targets when these teams met on Christmas Day, should see even more volume in a game with a lot more meaning.

The veteran tight end has five or more receptions in seven straight playoff games.

He’s got six or more receptions in six of his last seven, with an average of 10 receptions in his previous two playoff games.

After a relatively down year, I’ll bet on Kelce to emerge from the bye with one of his best performances of the season as he begins what could be final playoff run.

The Bet: Travis Kelce over 5.5 receptions

The Detroit Lions matched the Chiefs for the league’s best record at 15-2.

Dan Campbell went 6-0 in the NFC North, including 2-0 against Kevin O’Connell and the rival Minnesota Vikings.

Campbell is my pick for AP NFL Coach of the Year, although his assistants deserve a ton of credit as well.

Offensive Coordinator Ben Johnson and Defensive Coordinator Aaron Glenn won’t be in Detroit much longer.

On Saturday, they will pick up where they left off with unfinished business as they try to lead the Lions to a Super Bowl victory one more time.

On offence, I expect Jared Goff to target Amon-Ra St. Brown early and often.

The Washington Commanders were torched by Mike Evans for 92 yards on seven receptions in last week’s upset win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

During last year’s playoff run, St. Brown averaged 7.3 receptions for 91.3 receiving yards on an average of 11.3 targets per game.

St. Brown should be in line for another heavy workload against the Commanders on Saturday night.

Meanwhile, the Lions defence overcame a ton of injuries to finish the year on a high note.

Still, they have some major holes that I anticipate rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels will attack.

I believe Glenn will double-team Terry McLaurin the same way he did Justin Jefferson and blitz the rookie Daniels to speed up his time to throw and force him to make quick decisions under pressure.

When that happens, I expect Daniels to use his legs and run or find his running backs for receptions out of the backfield.

Austin Ekeler had three receptions for 26 yards in the win over Tampa Bay.

I’d consider that his floor for Saturday’s game in Detroit.

The Bet: SGP (+114): St. Brown 6+ receptions | Ekeler 2+ receptions | Lions ML

The Philadelphia Eagles dominated led the NFC with an average of 169.0 rushing yards per game.

Saquon Barkley, Jalen Hurts, and Kenneth Gainwell combined for exactly 169 yards on 5.0 yards per carry in last week’s win over the Green Bay Packers.

With freezing cold temperatures expected in Philadelphia again this weekend, I don’t expect their approach on offence to change against the Los Angeles Rams.

In their first meeting, the Eagles bulldozed the Rams for a season-high 314 yards and three touchdowns on 7.0 yards per carry.

In case you missed it, I locked in my FanDuel Best Bets that feature Saquon Barkley in Thursday’s column.

Now it’s time to focus on Philly’s quarterback, who ran for 36 yards in last week’s win over Green Bay.

Hurts has rushed for 29 or more yards in nine straight games.

He’s rushed for exactly 39 yards in two of those nine games, including the win over the Rams.

25+ yards seems like a safe floor for Hurts on Sunday.

The Bet: SGP (-125): Hurts 25+ rushing | Eagles -2.5

It’s going to be cold in Buffalo on Sunday.

In case you missed it, I jumped on several rushing props for that AFC showdown when they were first released on Sunday night.

All of them have moved in the direction I expected.

While FanDuel has a long list of props up for the game, I expect them to add the Ty Johnson receiving yards prop at either 8.5 or 9.5 yards on Sunday with his receptions line set at 1.5.

I’ll be on the over for both of those props if those are the numbers that we get for Johnson.

I’m also on the over for the Ravens running back that will be featured in a similar role to Johnson with Justice Hill over 17.5 receiving yards.

In terms of a FanDuel Best Bet I can add for this column, I’ll go with Derrick Henry over 96.5 rushing yards.

The Ravens added Henry for this exact game.

After abandoning the run far too early in last year’s playoff loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, I expect Offensive Coordinator Todd Monken to give his workhorse running back as many touches as possible in Buffalo on Sunday.

Henry averaged 8.3 yards per carry while rushing for 199 yards and a touchdown in the first meeting with the Bills.

He just ran for 186 yards and two touchdowns on 7.2 yards per carry in his playoff debut for the Ravens in a win over the Pittsburgh Steelers last week.

He’s averaged 143.0 rushing yards on 6.06 yards per carry in the month of January in his career.

After racking up 100+ rushing yards in four straight, I expect a similar performance in the winter conditions in Buffalo on Sunday with a trip to the AFC Championship on the line.

The Bet: Derrick Henry over 96.5 rushing yards

Enjoy the NFL Divisional Round games, everyone!

Hopefully, we go 4-0 with the bets in this column.

Have a great weekend!