Morning Coffee: Senators playoff odds surge after Tkachuk scores again in clutch win

The Ottawa Senators have been defined by resilience.

With Brady Tkachuk leading the way as their captain, nobody should be surprised by the grit and toughness they’ve displayed during their recent hot streak.

Less than 24 hours after grinding out a 2-1 win over the Detroit Red Wings, the Senators travelled to Philadelphia for a showdown with the rested Flyers on Tuesday.

The tight turnaround for a third game in four nights had some calling it a trap game for Ottawa.

Any concerns about a potential letdown were quickly put to rest when the captain lit the lamp just 24 seconds after the opening puck drop.

Tkachuk set the tone with his sixth goal in six games since the 4 Nations Face-Off, picking up his 400th NHL point.

The Senators beat Philadelphia 5-2 to extend their win streak to four in a row.

Ottawa improved to 34-25-5 and pulled five points clear of the Montreal Canadiens, New York Rangers, and Boston Bruins in the Eastern Conference Wild Card race.

With games against the Bruins, Maple Leafs, and Habs on deck, the Senators have an excellent opportunity to bolster their postseason chances over the next few days.

This is the Morning Coffee for Wednesday March 12th, 2025.

Ottawa Senators Playoff Odds Surge After Tkachuk Scores Again In Clutch Win

The Senators were searching for answers following a brutal five-game slide at the end of February.

Ottawa stumbled into the 4 Nations Face-Off break on the heels of three straight losses to the Tampa Bay Lightning and Florida Panthers.

Then with their captain sidelined by a lower body injury that he suffered while playing for Team USA in that tournament, the Senators were outscored a combined 9-3 in back-to-back losses to the Canadiens and Winnipeg Jets in their first two games back from the break.

At the time, Ottawa was desperate for a spark.

Fortunately, “Tkaptain Tkachuk” was ready to return to the lineup just in time to help the Sens get back on track.

On March 1st, Tkachuk sparked a comeback win over the San Jose Sharks with the first of four third-period goals for Ottawa in a 5-3 win in his return to the lineup.

Since his return, the Sens captain has scored six goals and registered seven points while leading Ottawa to a 5-0-1 record.

The lone blemish is a shootout loss to the Washington Capitals in Tkachuk’s second game back.

Speaking of a spark, Dylan Cozens scored 11 goals and registered 31 points in 61 games for the Buffalo Sabres prior to a deadline day trade.

He’s recorded a point in each of his first three games for the Senators, including goals in back-to-back games.

These pesky Sens demonstrated their resilience once again by pulling off the sweep while playing three games in four nights.

Perhaps no stat better exemplifies the resilience that Ottawa has demonstrated than its record in one-goal games.

The Senators are a remarkable 14-1-4 in their previous 19 one-goal games.

With a win last night, Ottawa’s odds to make the playoffs at FanDuel were cut from -430 to -1100.

The current number represents a 91.7 per cent implied probability that the Senators will reach the postseason.

With games against Boston, Toronto, and Montreal on deck over the next five days, Ottawa has an excellent opportunity to solidify its status as a playoff contender.

Based on the resilience this team has demonstrated since Tkachuk returned to the lineup, I’m not interested in betting against the surging Senators right now.

A FanDuel Best Bet For Wednesday Night

The FanDuel Best Bets in Morning Coffee went 2-1 on Tuesday.

Unfortunately, the Vegas Golden Knights lost to the Pittsburgh Penguins 3-2 in overtime after they outshot them a combined 37-17.

It happens.

Turning the page this morning, I’ll go with a Same Game Parlay that features Dylan Larkin to record 1+ point and the Detroit Red Wings to beat the Buffalo Sabres at +107.

Despite Larkin’s three-game goal streak, the Red Wings have hit a wall with six straight losses.

However, they’re also still just four points out of a playoff spot with their season essentially on the line tonight against the worst team in the Eastern Conference.

Detroit’s upcoming schedule is brutal.

The Red Wings host the Sabres tonight before travelling to face the Carolina Hurricanes, then return home to host the Vegas Golden Knights.

After that, they have a four-game road trip with games against Washington, Vegas, the Utah Hockey Team, and the Colorado Avalanche, before returning home to host the Senators.

If they don’t get back in the win column tonight, then the Red Wings slide could easily reach double-digits.

I’ll roll the dice with Detroit’s captain extending his point streak to four games in a row in a desperation win over Buffalo on home ice at plus-money.

Have a great day, everyone!