Morning Coffee: Steelers, Ravens trending in opposite directions ahead of playoff clash

Mike Tomlin hasn’t won a playoff game since 2016. It hasn’t been for a lack of trying. 

The Pittsburgh Steelers have reached the playoffs in three of the previous four seasons. They went one and done in each of them. 

Of course, it would be unreasonable to blame Tomlin for Pittsburgh’s recent lack of postseason success. 

The Steelers went 10-7 last season with Mitch Trubisky, Kenny Pickett, and Mason Rudolph at quarterback. 

This year, they went 10-7 with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. 

Pittsburgh has never finished with a losing record under Tomlin. Still, the Steelers enter the postseason on the heels of four straight losses, and it would take the biggest upset of the Wild Card round for them to go any further. 

Is there anything Tomlin can do to put his team in position to shock the football world with a victory over the AFC North rival Baltimore Ravens on Saturday? 

Maybe there is, but I wouldn’t bet on it. 

This is the Morning Coffee for Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025. 

Steelers, Ravens trending in opposite directions ahead of playoff clash 

The Ravens opened -8.5 at FanDuel for this weekend’s Wild Card showdown with the Steelers. 

That number touched 10 before settling at 9.5. 

Saturday’s game will be the 27th head-to-head meeting between Tomlin’s Steelers and John Harbaugh’s Ravens. 

The underdog has gone 20-16 straight up and 25-10-1 against the spread in the previous 26 games. 

Tomlin has gone 53-53 straight up in his career as an underdog – the second-best record in the Super Bowl era among coaches with at least 10 games as a dog. 

He’s 63-39-4 against the spread in that role. 

However, if we filter the numbers for games when his teams were an underdog of more than a touchdown, Tomlin’s ATS record is just 4-8. That number includes double-digit losses to the Kansas City Chiefs in 2021 and the Buffalo Bills in 2023. 

Favourites of nine or more points have gone 15-1 straight up and 13-3 against the spread on Wild Card Weekend. 

While the Steelers have lost four straight games, the Ravens have won and covered four straight games entering the playoffs. 

There’s been conversations this week about whether Justin Fields will get snaps at quarterback for Pittsburgh after Wilson struggled down the stretch. 

Meanwhile, Lamar Jackson finished the regular season on a high note with some historic numbers to join Josh Allen in the MVP conversation. 

Jackson, Derrick Henry, and a defence that improved significantly over the second half are focused on one goal, and it continues this week against the rival Steelers. 

In case you missed it, our NFL analyst Davis Sanchez picked the Ravens -9.5 as his Early Lean for the NFL Wild Card Weekend. 

While I’m tempted to tail him with Baltimore, I’ll go a different route and lock in a builder Same Game Parlay for Sunday’s game. 

Instead, I’ll lock in a Same Game Parlay with the Ravens to win by at least a field goal and Lamar Jackson to finish with 40 or more rushing yards at -120. 

In case you missed it, I locked in a couple of quarterback rushing props as my initial bets for Wild Card Weekend. 

Every game is a must-win, and I expect that urgency to lead to quarterbacks using their athleticism and mobility to make plays with their legs. 

Jackson has registered 54 or more rushing yards in five of his six career playoff starts. He’s averaged 86.8 rushing yards in those six games. 

Jackson also rushed for at least 63 yards in four of his final five regular-season games, with the lone exception being a blowout win over the Steelers in which he finished with 23 rushing yards after taking a knee to end the game. 

Prior to that, Jackson registered at least 45 rushing yards in every game versus Pittsburgh dating back to his rookie season. 

With Zay Flowers injured and cold conditions expected in Baltimore, I’ll bank on Jackson to use his legs enough to get to 40 rushing yards and the Ravens to win by at least a field goal. 
 
Have a great day, everyone!