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Morning Coffee: The Case For Lamb To Win Offensive Player of the Year
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Alright, folks, it’s time to lock in.
The NFL kick-off game is right around the corner now.
It’s about to get real.
After months of prep, the next 24 hours will be all about my final two fantasy football league drafts, finalizing my Survivor Pools blueprint, and locking in a couple more futures parlays at FanDuel.
I also need to finalize the last few details of the broadcast plan for Week 1 at the network, which includes live FanDuel segments for the pre-game and half-time of NFL games on Thursday, Friday, Sunday, and Monday with Tekeyah Singh and Davis Sanchez.
T and Chezzy, if you see this, it’s sandwiches on me if the Houston Texans beat the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday.
*Editors note: T and Chezzy, get ready for free sandwiches because they're on me (Luke Bellus) if the Colts beat the Texans.*
When it comes to mapping out the NFL season, you’re five steps ahead of you’re already losing ground.
Still, just when you think you’re ready for anything, that’s when anything gets creative.
Unlike in previous years, when I’ve published a long list of FanDuel NFL futures, I’ve tempered my output a little bit.
A big part of that equation is the short-term success I’ve had betting on baseball and the CFL this summer.
Shout out to Drew Morrison for another week in the green with his CFL 3rd and 1 column.
Also, shout out to Luke Bellus for giving me Taylor Pendrith at +125 to make the Presidents Cup team.
Anyways, the point that I started to make was that I’d like to offer up some more predictions for the 2024 NFL season in this column.
I’m already 300 words in and I haven’t even started to explain why I think CeeDee Lamb is a decent value play to win the NFL Offensive Player of the Year at FanDuel.
Let’s get to the predictions.
This is the Morning Coffee for Wednesday September 4th, 2024.
The Case For Lamb To Win Offensive Player of the Year
In case you missed it, I’ve already locked in my first two FanDuel Best Bets for Week 1 of the NFL season in this column.
I’m on the Texans to beat the Colts as the league’s only Week 1 road favourite at -126 at FanDuel.
I’m also on the New York Jets to cover as a 4.5-point underdog against the San Francisco 49ers.
I’ll get to the NFL Kick-Off Game and at least one more play for NFL Sunday eventually, but for now I’m going to focus on the futures.
FanDuel introduced a new market they call “Futures Fusion” this year, which combines popular futures plays and “Same Team Parlays” for bigger payouts.
For example, you can bet the Texans to be the No. 1 seed in the AFC or the Detroit Lions to be the No. 1 seed in the NFC at +300.
What about the Buffalo Bills or the Cincinnati Bengals to win the AFC Championship Game at +350?
Admittedly, I’ve spent way too much scanning those markets over the past 48 hours.
Now I’m 500 words into this column and I still haven’t explained a single awards prediction.
Let’s start with the NFL Offensive Player of the Year.
Offensive Player of the Year: CeeDee Lamb +1100
Full disclosure, I’m all-in on Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson to be in the mix for the OPOY this season.
Hall and Garrett are both coming off impressive statistical seasons for the Jets with Aaron Rodgers sidelined.
Both will benefit from Rodgers’ return to health.
While I’ve targeted both players in fantasy football league drafts, it’s hard to separate two players that should both put up elite numbers as two of the top 10 choices to win the OPOY while playing for the same team.
Tyreek Hill is an obvious favourite in this market at +750.
Christian McCaffrey is the second choice at +950.
I’ll take a chance on CeeDee Lamb to win Offensive Player of the Yeat at +1100.
Lamb led the league with 135 receptions and his 12 touchdown receptions were the second-most in the NFL behind only Hill and Mike Evans.
Lamb didn’t really hit his stride until the second half of the season, and if he picks up from where he left off late last year, he could very well lead the NFL in receptions, receiving yards and touchdown receptions.
He had a 30 per cent target share last season and that number might go up this season.
Coming off a career year, it’s reasonable to believe Lamb could put up even better numbers in 2024.
Unlike the Jets, the Cowboys have only one alpha playmaker at the skill positions, and he should be in line for a massive workload this season.
I’ll recommend a play on Wilson over 1125.5 receiving yards at -110 at FanDuel.
However, my pick for Offensive Player of the Year is Lamb at +1100.
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Caleb Williams +120
The 2024 rookie class is the most stacked group that I can remember since I started watching football.
Quarterbacks Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and Bo Nix will all start in Week 1.
Drake Maye could have started, but the New England Patriots don’t want to destroy his career by feeding him to the wolves over the first few weeks of the season.
Marvin Harrison Jr. and Malik Nabers are already the No. 1 receiver on their respective teams, while Xavier Worthy, Keon Coleman, Ladd McConkey, Brian Thomas Jr., and Rome Odunze are all expected to contribute at a high level right away.
While I’ll be targeting those wide receivers in fantasy drafts, I’d be surprised if somebody other than Williams wins the Offensive Rookie of the Year.
I can’t remember a quarterback as talented as Williams stepping into a situation in which he is surrounded by such a talented group of skill-position players right away.
With D.J. Moore, Keenan Allen, Odunze, D’Andre Swift, and a potential top-10 defence, the Chicago Bears are a pick’em to make the playoffs at FanDuel.
Highlight reel plays like this should help his case.
There will be plenty of highs and lows throughout the course of the season, but I believe Williams will put up solid counting stats as a rookie and have the Bears in contention for a playoff spot late in the season.
Williams is my pick for Offensive Rookie of the Year at +120.
I’ll be back with some more futures plays and a FanDuel Best Bet for the NFL Kick-Off game on Thursday morning.
Have a great day, everyone!