Morning Coffee: Three must-watch Week 11 Games will impact NFL playoff picture

Week 10 in the NFL was one for the books.

NFL underdogs went 11-3 against the spread.

It’s the first time since Week 6 of the 2017 season that 11 NFL underdogs covered the spread while only three of them suffered an ATS loss.

It was also the first time since Week 4 that underdogs finished the week with a winning ATS record at all.

The Miami Dolphins capped off the week with an impressive 23-15 win over the Los Angeles Rams as a 2.5-point underdog on Monday Night Football.

NFL favourites are 104-48 straight up this season, but they went 8-6 outright in Week 10.

Unfortunately for yours truly, I was on the wrong side of that Rams loss to the Dolphins that snapped a streak of eight straight wins by Los Angeles as a betting favourite. 

The bad news is that it happened.

The good news is that it doesn’t happen very often and it’s something I’m hoping to avoid moving forward as we turn the page this morning.

Taking a quick glance at the schedule, there’s a lot for football fans to get excited about for Week 11 in the NFL.

This is the Morning Coffee for Tuesday November 12th, 2024.

Three Must-Watch Week 11 Games Will Impact NFL Playoff Picture

For the first time in NFL history, we’ll get three matchups between teams that have seven or more wins in a single week in Week 11 or earlier.

First up, the Philadelphia Eagles host the Washington Commanders in a prime-time showdown with major implications for first place in the NFC East on Thursday Night Football.

Then it’s an AFC North showdown between the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers with first place in the division on the line in the 1 PM ET window on Sunday.

After that, we get a potential AFC Championship Game showdown between the undefeated, two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills in the 4 PM ET window.

Thursday Night Football can’t get here soon enough.

The Eagles are currently a three-point favourite for Thursday’s game against the Commanders.

With the Dallas Cowboys playoff hopes fading fast, it seems like we’re already guaranteed to see a new division champion crowned in the NFC East for the 20th straight season.

I had to find a way to get this clip into the column.

The current streak of 19 straight seasons without a repeat division champion is already the longest for any division in NFL history.

It’s also the longest active streak in the NFL, NBA, MLB, or the NHL, per the Elias Sports Bureau.

The Eagles are currently a three-point favourite at FanDuel.

I’m going with Philly -3 as my early lean in that game.

Meanwhile, the Ravens are currently a 3.5-point favourite for Sunday’s game in Pittsburgh.

I’ve already circled one prop for that game that I am looking very forward to seeing a number for in the upcoming days.

The Steelers have won seven of their last eight head-to-head meetings versus Baltimore.

Each of the previous eight meetings has been decided by seven points or fewer.

Finally, the Bills are currently -1.5 against the Chiefs in arguably the most highly anticipated game of the season to this point.

Kansas City and Buffalo are both among the top five choices to win the Super Bowl at FanDuel this morning.

Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes are the second and third choices to win NFL regular season MVP at FanDuel behind only Lamar Jackson.

Allen is 3-1 against Mahomes in the regular season.

Mahomes is 3-0 versus Allen in the postseason.

All eyes will be on the superstar quarterbacks as Allen and the Bills look to end the Chiefs’ perfect season.

I’m also looking very forward to Sunday’s Grey Cup between the Winnipeg Blue Bombers and the Toronto Argonauts.

In case you missed it, I am heavily invested in Winnipeg to win it all this season and I’m currently weighing how to hedge if at all with the Argonauts as a 10.5-point underdog at FanDuel.

Toronto is currently a +390 moneyline underdog.

There’s a good chance I hold off until Sunday before locking in another play for the big game.

The FanDuel Best Bets will return in this column on Wednesday morning.

In the meantime, give me a follow @Domenic_Padula on X and if I see something I love I will post it there.

Have a great day, everyone!