Morning Coffee: Two CFL trends to consider for this weekend’s games

The Pro Football Hall of Fame Class of 2024 will be enshrined at the Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium in Canton, Ohio on Saturday.

Hopefully, for the inductees, the weather around the stadium will be better than it was in the second half of last night’s Pro Football Hall of Fame Game.

The Chicago Bears led the Houston Texans 21-17 before inclement weather ultimately forced the remainder of the game to be cancelled with 3:31 still left on the clock in the third quarter.

While we can’t confirm how the final 18:51 of game action would have played out, I have to believe that anybody who had a bet on the Texans to win had to feel fortunate that the game was called and full-game bets at FanDuel were ultimately voided based on how that second half was trending.

It was a good reminder that every sports book has different rules for how they handle situations in which NFL pre-season games are cancelled.

While all first-half markets were paid out, FanDuel’s house rules stipulate that NFL pre-season full-game bets need a minimum of 10 minutes of fourth quarter play to be considered action.

Anybody with a full-game bet on the sides or the total had their bet voided.

Bears rookie first-overall pick Caleb Williams didn’t dress for last night’s game, but we did get our first look at the league’s new Dynamic Kick-off.

We also got our first look at the depth in a pair of loaded wide receiver cores for both teams, with standout performances by Houston’s Xavier Hutchinson and Chicago’s Collin Johnson.

We’re still more than a month away from the regular season kick-off, but after a long wait it’s great to have actual NFL game action to talk about.

With the 2024 Pro Football Hall of Fame Game in the books, the football focus shifts back to the CFL this weekend with three more games on tap.

If last night’s result is any indication, we should expect at least one more upset in the CFL this weekend.

This is the Morning Coffee for Friday August 2nd, 2024.

Two CFL Betting Trends To Consider For This Weekend’s Games

Entering Week 9, CFL underdogs were a combined 20-12 against the spread this season.

Despite that trend, 60 per cent of the bets at FanDuel were on the BC Lions to cover as a 4.5-point favourite against the Winnipeg Blue Bombers on Thursday Night Football.

73 per cent of the bets were on the Lions to win outright.

Unfortunately for the betting public, the Bombers responded with their best effort of the entire season in a 25-0 win in front of their home fans.

BC QB Vernon Adams Jr. entered Week 9 as the obvious favourite to win the CFL’s Most Outstanding Player at FanDuel after leading the Lions to a league-best 406.6 passing yards per game through the first eight weeks.

The Winnipeg defence completely shut down the Lions attack as they held BC to just 86 total passing yards.

Meanwhile, Bombers QB Zach Collaros went 27-of-33 for 295 yards and a touchdown in the shutout win.

18 of Winnipeg’s 25 points came off the foot of veteran kicker Sergio Castillo, who went 6-for-6 on field goal attempts, including a 60-yard make. 

Considering the Bombers were just 1-7 against the spread entering Week 9, it makes sense that the betting public was all over the Lions to win and cover.

However, with a Winnipeg win, CFL underdogs are now 21-12 ATS and 16-17 straight up this season.

It’s a long season and a lot can change between now and November.

Despite a disastrous start, the Bombers improved to 3-4 and they are just two games back of the Saskatchewan Roughriders for first place in the West Division standings.

Winnipeg, which could be found as high as +1400 to win the Grey Cup at FanDuel entering Week 9, gets a bye in Week 10 before a match with BC on Sunday August 18th.

As I highlighted in this column a couple of weeks ago, I’ve never considered writing off the pre-season favourite to win the Grey Cup, even as the Bombers’ odds to win it all have continued to lengthen in recent weeks.

Meanwhile, the Lions were dealt a considerable blow.

It’s a long CFL season and except for the Edmonton Elks, the overall parity has been one of the biggest stories from the first half.

In addition to an impressive ATS record by the underdogs, it’s also worth pointing out that scoring is down across the league over the past couple of weeks.

The total for last night’s game closed at 49.5 at FanDuel.

The under is now 8-1 dating back to Week 7.

Will that trend continue this weekend?

The Montreal Alouettes are a 4.5-point favourite for their Friday Night Football clash with the Hamilton Tiger-Cats.

Looking ahead, the Roughriders opened at -3.5 against the Elks and have since been bet up to -5.5 at FanDuel.

All eyes will be on Edmonton’s new QB1 this weekend.

The total for Saturday night’s game is 51.5.

Finally, the Calgary Stampeders are up to -4.5 against the Toronto Argonauts from -2.5 earlier in the week.

The total for Sunday night’s game is 49.5.

In case you missed it, our guy Drew Morrison delivered his best bets for Week 9 in the CFL on Thursday.

You could read his picks for this week’s remaining games clicking the link below.

Despite the strong ATS record for underdogs, I dabbled with a two-team parlay taking the Roughriders and Stampeders to both win outright at +102.

Saskatchewan and Calgary are a combined 6-0 straight up at home this season.

The Roughriders can pull away from the Lions a little bit in the West Division standings this weekend, while the Stampeders can close the gap on BC for second place.

Hopefully for yours truly, we will see some regression to the mean with the underdogs cooling off a bit.

Have a great weekend, everyone!