Morning Coffee: Which Stanley Cup Playoffs underdog is most likely to rally from down 2-0?​

The 2025 NFL Draft has arrived.

Miami Hurricanes quarterback Cam Ward is the obvious favourite to be selected with the first overall pick tonight.

The second QB off the board might just be the most intriguing question mark heading into the NFL Draft.

In this case, the destination is as interesting as the pick.

As the clock continues to tick down to tonight’s first round, Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders remains the heavy favourite in that market at FanDuel this morning.

Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart is the only other quarterback with shorter than +200 odds.

Whether it’s Sanders or Dart, the next question is how high will the first QB drafted after Ward be selected?

Sanders was the early favourite to be the first overall pick when FanDuel first opened its markets immediately after the 2024 NFL Draft.

As recently as this week, his draft position over/under could be found at over/under 8.5 at several sportsbooks.

Fast-forward 24 hours later, Sanders’ draft position over/under has shifted all the way from 8.5 to 21.5.

Dart’s over/under is 25.5 at FanDuel this morning.

Finally, which teams select a QB in the first round?

The Pittsburgh Steelers, which currently own the 21st overall pick, are the favourite to select Sanders.

The New York Giants, which own the 3rd overall and 26th overall picks, are the favourite to select Dart.

FanDuel set the over/under at 2.5 QBs selected in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft.

We know that the Tennessee Titans are expected to select Ward with the first overall pick.

What happens after that should be one of the most interesting storylines to follow in tonight’s NFL Draft.

This is the Morning Coffee for Thursday April 24th, 2025.

Which Stanley Cup Playoffs underdog is most likely to rally from down 2-0?

Is this the year a Canadian team wins the Stanley Cup?

That’s been a hot topic of conversation from coast to coast across this beautiful country in recent months.

One week into the playoffs, it looks like the number of Canadian contenders is about to be trimmed from five down to two.

There was only ever going to be one team to advance from the Battle of Ontario.

So far in that series, it’s been pretty one-sided.

The Toronto Maple Leafs are -710 to advance up 2-0 on the Ottawa Senators heading into Game 3 tonight.

Tonight’s game opened as a pick’em at FanDuel, but the odds have shifted in Ottawa’s favour from -110 to -126.

Meanwhile, the Winnipeg Jets are -115 to take a 3-0 series lead over the St. Louis Blues with a win on the road in Game 3 tonight.

The Jets are -1200 to advance at FanDuel this morning.

Beyond Toronto and Winnipeg, it doesn’t look great.

The Edmonton Oilers are +350 to win their series against the Los Angeles Kings trailing 2-0 as they return home for the next two games.

The Oilers are -137 to win Game 3 tomorrow night.

The Montreal Canadiens will also return home down 2-0 to the Washington Capitals and are +760 to advance.

The Habs are +104 to win Game 3 tomorrow night.

Edmonton, Montreal, and Ottawa are three of the five teams that trail 2-0 in their Stanley Cup Playoffs series.

Per FanDuel’s series winner markets, the Oilers are considered the most likely 0-2 team to advance.

At +350, FanDuel gives Edmonton a 22.2 per cent chance to win four games against the Kings without losing more than one the rest of the way.

FanDuel gives the Senators a 16.9 per cent chance to advance at +490.

Next up, it’s the Blues at +680 – a 12.8 per cent chance.

Montreal has an 11.6 per cent implied probability to advance at +760 to win their series.

The New Jersey Devils have the longest odds to win their series of the teams down 0-2 at +1000.

That number represents just a 9.1 per cent implied chance the Devils rally to beat the Carolina Hurricanes.

Am I confident picking one of those five teams to rally from down 2-0 to win their series this morning?

No.

Am I confident betting that none of those five teams will rally on home ice and push their series to six or seven games?

Also, no.

I bet on Toronto, Winnipeg, Los Angeles, Washington, Carolina to advance and there’s nothing from the first two games of those series that has me rushing to hedge my bets.

With the third chapter in the latest installment of the Battle of Ontario on deck tonight, I’m certainly intrigued to see what the response looks like from the Senators.

Toronto never looked vulnerable at any point in the first two games on home ice.

Considering how well Leafs Nation is expected to travel, the Maple Leafs could have the edge again tonight despite being an underdog on the road.

For my FanDuel Best Bet, I’ll lock in a builder Same Game Parlay that features Auston Matthews 2+ shots on goal, Matthews 1+ point, and Marner 1+ point at -120 odds.

I’ve been burned by the Matthews anytime goal prop in the series, but I’ll be back on it tonight at +140.

Meanwhile, the builder SGP I’ve laid out above is 2-for-2 so far in the series.

Regardless of which team wins tonight, I believe it will move to 3-for-3 tonight with Matthews and Marner both finding the scoresheet for Toronto.

Give me an SGP with Matthews 1+ point, Marner 1+ point, and Matthews 2+ shots on goal at -120 odds as a FanDuel Best Bet.

Have a great day, everyone!