Morning Coffee: Will 49ers capitalize on Seahawks weaknesses on Thursday Night Football?
Published
The San Francisco 49ers are the betting favourite to win the NFC Championship at FanDuel.
After stumbling out of the gate, Niners fans are hoping that a match-up against a division rival their team has dominated in recent years provides the ideal opportunity to get back on track with a win.
The 49ers travel to face the Seattle Seahawks in an NFC West showdown on Thursday Night Football on TSN.
Brock Purdy is 4-0 against the Seahawks in his career.
He’s one of only two quarterbacks in franchise history with zero losses through multiple starts against Seattle.
The other is Hall of Fame quarterback Joe Montana.
At least numbers-wise, Purdy started his career on a Hall of Fame trajectory by going 17-4 with a 111.4 passer rating and a 44/15 TD/INT ratio in his first two seasons.
However, Purdy’s production has tailed off somewhat through the first five games of his third NFL season, as he enters Week 6 at 2-3 with a 6/4 TD/INT ratio.
Will Purdy and the Niners get back on track with a win over an opponent they’ve dominated in recent seasons?
Or will Geno Smith and the Seahawks extend their lead atop the NFC West with a key win over a division rival?
This is the Morning Coffee for Thursday October 10th, 2024.
Will 49ers Capitalize On Seahawks Weaknesses On Thursday Night Football?
The 49ers entered the 2024 NFL season as the obvious favourite to win the NFC West at FanDuel.
However, they’ve managed just two wins through their first five games, with a poor start against their division rivals the biggest concern through the first five weeks.
San Francisco is 0-2 against NFC West opponents.
The 49ers blew 10-point fourth-quarter leads in losses to both the Los Angeles Rams and the Arizona Cardinals.
They’re the only team in the NFL with multiple losses in games that they’ve led by double-digits this season.
To get back on track, I expect Kyle Shanahan and the coaching staff to emphasize what they do best on a short week.
San Francisco should run the football a ton tonight.
Running back Jordan Mason’s rush attempts prop is currently over/under 17.5 – juiced to the over at -120.
Mason’s rushing yards prop is 82.5 – the highest number we’ve seen for that prop in any game this season.
Taking a closer look at the match-up, it’s obvious why those numbers are so high.
In the 49ers’ two wins, Mason averaged 26.0 carries and 135.0 rushing yards per game.
He’s cleared 17.5 rushing attempts in four of five games.
He’s also cleared 82.5 rushing yards in four of five games.
The Seahawks defence has allowed an average of 110.6 rushing yards per game to opposing running backs so far this season.
That number jumps to 125.5 rushing yards allowed per game in back-to-back losses to the Detroit Lions and the New York Giants over the past two weeks.
After watching rookie running back Tyrone Tracy gash Seattle for 129 yards on 18 carries in Sunday’s win, the 49ers should be eager to get back to their biggest strength tonight and run the football.
Factor in that the Seahawks are dealing with injuries to defensive tackle Byron Murphy, linebackers Derick Hall, Uchenna Nwosu and Boye Mafe, as well as defensive backs Riq Woolen and Julian Love, and it’s clear that this defence will be vulnerable tonight.
Add in the fact that this will be Seattle’s third game over a 10-day period and I expect them to be particularly susceptible to a high-powered San Francisco offence in tonight’s game.
For my FanDuel Best Bets, I’ll take Mason over 17.5 rushing attempts, Mason 80+ rushing yards, and the 49ers team total over 26.5.
Let’s see if San Francisco can bounce back on a short week with its best performance of the season against a Seahawks’ defence that has some serious concerns.
Have a great day, everyone!