Morning Coffee: Will Bills defy the odds to win the Super Bowl?
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The Buffalo Bills breezed through the final three weeks of the NFL regular season with the easiest schedule among the league’s top teams.
Unfortunately for Bills Mafia, Josh Allen and company have been dealt the most difficult path to the Super Bowl among the legitimate championship contenders.
Buffalo cruised to a 31-7 win over the Denver Broncos on Sunday to improve to 5-0 in home Wild Card games with Allen at quarterback and 9-0 overall at home this season.
After holding rookie quarterback Bo Nix and the Denver offence to a single score, the Bills will brace for a much tougher test as they get set to host Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, and the Baltimore Ravens.
Sunday’s game versus Baltimore will be Buffalo’s first clash with a legitimate Super Bowl contender since a win over the Detroit Lions in Week 15.
Allen and the Bills have talked all season about being prepared for the moment when it matters the most.
Now they’ll be put to the test with the most difficult remaining schedule of the top Super Bowl contenders.
This is the Morning Coffee for Tuesday January 14th, 2025.
Will Bills Defy The Odds To Win The Super Bowl?
The Bills could be found at +550 to win the Super Bowl at FanDuel this morning.
Four teams have shorter odds to win it all.
To win the Super Bowl, Buffalo will likely need to beat three of those teams.
First up, the Bills play the team that is slotted directly in front of them in terms of FanDuel’s Super Bowl odds with Baltimore down to +470 to win it all this morning.
Buffalo opened -1.5 for Sunday’s AFC Divisional showdown.
That number has already flipped to Ravens -1.5.
After jumping on Baltimore to win at -108, I’ve watched as that number has slowly ticked up to -116 at FanDuel.
Lamar Jackson is the favourite to win NFL regular season MVP after putting up career-best numbers.
Derrick Henry was a candidate for Offensive Player of the Year after a dominant debut season for the Ravens.
Plus, the Baltimore defence has rounded into form with some of its best performances of the year in key wins over the Pittsburgh Steelers and Houston Texans over the previous four weeks.
Maybe the Ravens don’t blow out the Bills the way that they did when they beat them 35-10 back in Week 4.
Still, I lean towards Baltimore winning outright in what I consider to be the toughest match-up Buffalo could face in the AFC playoffs.
If the Bills beat Jackson and the Ravens on Sunday night, that will likely earn them a date with Patrick Mahomes and the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship.
Kansas City is the second choice to win it all at +350.
If the Bills beat both the Ravens and the Chiefs on their path through the AFC playoffs, there’s a good chance that one of the Detroit Lions or the Philadelphia Eagles will be waiting for them in the Super Bowl.
The Lions are the favourite to win it all at +290.
The Eagles are the third choice to win it at +420 behind Detroit and Kansas City.
That would mean that to win the Super Bowl, Buffalo likely needs to beat the Ravens, Chiefs, and one of the Lions or Eagles.
All four of those teams have shorter odds to win the Super Bowl than the Bills at FanDuel.
There’s a good chance Buffalo would be an underdog in all three games.
Thanks in large part to Allen’s place as one of the league’s best quarterbacks, this is one of the best Bills’ teams I can ever remember watching.
I’m not overlooking Buffalo as a potential Super Bowl champion.
It’s just that to win it all, the Bills will have to overcome the toughest Super Bowl path of the remaining contenders.
Plus, the opponent they are most likely to face next week is rested off a bye week and is set to host a Texans team that they beat without much of a sweat in Week 16.
I’ve already locked in the Ravens to win outright as a bet for the NFL Divisional Round.
You can find all my early plays @Domenic_Padula on X.
Maybe the Bills prove me wrong, and they go on to win the Super Bowl this season.
It wouldn’t shock me.
My point is that their path couldn’t be any more difficult.
For that reason, I’m out on Buffalo as Super Bowl champs.