Morning Coffee: Will Darnold, Vikings rebound versus Rams?

Jayden Daniels has become the exception to the rule.

If you don’t believe me, consider that he already has more playoff wins than Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, and Baker Mayfield combined.

Prior to his playoff debut last night, rookie quarterbacks had gone a combined 0-6 straight up and 1-5 against the spread in road playoff games over the last 10 seasons.

FanDuel made Daniels and the Washington Commanders a three-point underdog for their NFC Wild Card game against Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

If you watched the game, you might have noticed that it was the rookie Daniels that appeared more composed than the veteran Mayfield throughout the game.

Daniels went 24-of-35 for 268 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 36 yards on 13 attempts.

Mayfield went 15-of-18 for 185 yards and two scores.

However, with the Buccaneers leading 17-13 in the fourth quarter, Mayfield lost a fumble on his own 15-yard line that opened the door just enough for Daniels and the Commanders to engineer another comeback victory.
 
With the game on the line, Daniels found Terry McLaurin in the end zone for a go-ahead touchdown.

Then after Tampa Bay tied it at 20, Daniels marched his offence down the field in the final minutes to set up a game-winning field goal as time expired, giving the franchise its first playoff victory since 2005.

It was Washington’s sixth win this season in which the game-winning score has come in the final 10 seconds of the fourth quarter or overtime, matching the most in a single season since the 1970 merger.

Daniels joined a short list that features Shaun King, Ben Roethlisberger, and Russell Wilson as the only rookie QBs to lead a game-winning drive in the fourth quarter or overtime in their playoff debut.

His six wins after trailing in the fourth quarter are the most by any rookie quarterback in more than seven decades.

Daniels established himself as the top dog in a loaded class of first-year players after he led the Commanders to the playoffs as the overwhelming favourite to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year honours at FanDuel.

After engineering an epic comeback win on the road in his playoff debut in Tampa Bay on Sunday night, one thing is abundantly clear.

All the cliches about rookie QBs don’t apply here.

Jayden Daniels is the exception to the rule. 

This is the Morning Coffee for Monday, January 13th, 2025.

Will Darnold, Vikings Rebound Versus Rams?

Sunday January 5th, 2025.

That’s the date that anybody who placed a wager on the Minnesota Vikings will remember for a very long time. 

You can count me among them.

With the division title and the NFC’s No. 1 seed on the line against the rival Detroit Lions, Sam Darnold delivered his worst performance in a Vikings uniform as he went 18-of-41 for 166 yards with two sacks.

The 43.9 per cent completion rate and 166 passing yards were his worst marks since he signed with Minnesota.

If you removed his running back targets, Darnold went a combined 11-of-33 on passes to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Jalen Nailor, T.J. Hockenson, and Josh Oliver.

Keep in mind, this was against a Detroit defence that allowed the most receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers in the NFL this season.

With the pressure on, Darnold was caught seeing ghosts.

It was such a bad performance that for a moment the Vikings could be found as low as -118 to beat the Los Angeles Rams in tonight’s NFC Wild Card showdown.

That number has since climbed to -134 with Minnesota now a 2.5-point favourite at a neutral site in Arizona due to the ongoing wildfires in Los Angeles.

For as terrible as Darnold looked against the Lions, it was still only one bad performance in a season in which he threw for 4,319 yards and 35 touchdowns with just 12 interceptions.

Darnold led the NFL in QBR (99.5), completion percentage (56%), and touchdown throws that travelled 20+ yards down the field (9).

Jefferson, Addison, Hockenson, Nailor and Aaron Jones make up one of the most talented offensives in the NFL.

The Vikings defence had 33 takeaways this season – tied for the most in the league.

Kevin O’Connell, who closed as the favourite to win AP NFL Coach of the Year at FanDuel, is 26-10 in one-score games.

Nobody is overlooking the Rams potential for an upset tonight.

At the same time, I don’t want to overreact to one bad game, which is why I jumped on the Vikings to win outright tonight at -122 as my FanDuel Best Bet.

In terms of the game outlook, here is everything I’ve played for a half-unit for tonight’s game:

Vikings ML -122
Darnold over 1.5 TD passes
Jefferson over 87.5 receiving yards
Hockenson over 39.5 receiving yards
SGP (-120): Jefferson 5+ receptions | Hockenson 3+ receptions | Vikings alt team total over 19.5 
SGP (-118): Jones 50+ rushing | Vikings alt team total over 19.5
Nailor over 15.5 receiving yards
Nailor over 1.5 receptions
Oliver over 5.5 receiving
Nacua over 89.5 receiving
Nacua over 1.5 rushing
K. Williams over 1.5 receptions
Higbee over 2.5 receptions
Higbee over 23.5 receiving

Admittedly, outside of an 8-1 run with my FanDuel Best Bets for Sunday, I’ve had a tough time separating my “best bet” from my full card in recent weeks.

Make sure you give me a follow @Domenic_Padula on X for more on tonight’s game and an early look at my NFL Divisional Round bets.

Have a great day, everyone!