Morning Coffee: Will Mahomes deliver again in the underdog role on Sunday?

​The Washington Commanders regression was inevitable.

Fortunately, we were able to identify the precise moment of its arrival.

A relatively sub-par performance by Jalen Hurts combined with two missed field goals and a missed extra point by Philadelphia Eagles kicker Jake Elliott allowed the Commanders to hang around for a little bit on Thursday Night Football.

Ultimately, Saquon Barkley got going on the ground, and the Eagles outscored Washington 20-0 at one point in the second half on their way to an easy win and cover as a 4.5-point favourite at FanDuel.

Barkley finished with 198 total yards and two scores.

Kenneth Gainwell averaged 10.8 yards per carry on his way to 43 rushing yards to cash the over 14.5 rushing.

Hurts never really looked comfortable, going 18-of-28 for 221 yards with two sacks and finished with a 44.6 QBR.

Fortunately for the home Philly fans, their rushing attack and defence was able to make up for the struggles of Hurts and Elliott in the victory.

My Thursday Night Football bets went 3-2 after A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith couldn’t get me the 27 more receiving yards I needed for the 5-0 sweep.

Fortunately, Barkley and Gainwell delivered, and the Eagles won and covered in a game in which they nearly doubled the Commanders in total yards.

We were able to accurately predict the timing of an inevitable regression by a Washington team that has now dropped back-to-back games following a 7-2 start.

Turning the page this morning, I’ll do my best to identify a couple of FanDuel Best Bet winners for a pair of highly anticipated NFL Sunday matchups.

This is the Morning Coffee for Friday, November 15th, 2024.

Will Mahomes Deliver Again In The Underdog Role On Sunday?

If you are a fan of the NFL, then you’ve probably heard by now that Patrick Mahomes has had some success as a betting underdog in his career.

If you only bet on Mahomes to cover every road and neutral site game that he’s played as an underdog, then you’ve never lost a bet.

Mahomes is 12-0-1 against the spread in his career as an underdog on the road or a neutral site, including playoffs.

He’s won five straight games as an underdog outright and is 11-3 straight up as an underdog in his NFL career.

Of course, those numbers are relevant this week because the Buffalo Bills are a 2.5-point favourite against the Kansas City Chiefs in one of the most highly anticipated games on the regular season schedule.

The Bills desperately need a win over Kansas City to keep them from running away with the AFC’s No. 1 seed.

Unfortunately for Buffalo, the Chiefs should be just as motivated after a couple of narrow wins to push their perfect record to 9-0.

It also won’t help the Bills that rookie Keon Coleman will miss this game with a wrist injury, tight end Dalton Kincaid hasn’t practiced because of a knee injury, and Amari Cooper has been limited in practice again this week with a wrist injury.

Kansas City lost kicker Harrison Butker, but they should get JuJu Smith-Shuster back after he was a full participant in practice on Thursday.

While Isiah Pacheco returned to practice, head coach Andy Reid said that it is unlikely he plays in Buffalo as he has been limited this week.

I have two bets that I’ve circled for Sunday’s game.

The first is a builder Same Game Parlay with Chiefs +10.5, Travis Kelce 40+ receiving yards, and DeAndre Hopkins 25+ receiving yards at -104 odds.

The Bills might not have some of their best weapons on offence, so even if they find a way to win Sunday’s game, Mahomes and company should be able to keep it close.

I’ve also circled the Samaje Perine receiving yards prop as one to watch for Sunday.

Perine over 7.5 receiving yards has cashed in five straight as he’s gone over 22 receiving yards in all five games.

The Bills have allowed the most receptions (6.6) and the most receiving yards (54.5) in the NFL to opposing running backs this season.

Once Pacheco is officially ruled out, we should see a receiving yards number for Perine at FanDuel.

I’d recommend the over 7.5 as a FanDuel Best Bet if we see it again this weekend.

Meanwhile, in case you missed it, I’ve also already locked in a FanDuel Best Bet for Sunday’s game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens.

George Pickens has registered at least 74 receiving yards in all three games with Russell Wilson at quarterback.

Now he faces a Baltimore defence that has allowed a league-high 199.2 receiving yards per game to opposing wide receivers this season.

Ja’Marr Chase just went for 264 yards and three touchdowns against this Ravens secondary.

If Pickens can get me a quarter of that production, then this bet will cash.

Pickens over 65.5 receiving yards is a FanDuel Best Bet.

There are a couple of other opportunities that I’ve circled for Sunday’s NFL games as we wait for a full list of props to populate once the injury reports are sorted out.

In the meantime, our guy Luke Bellus looked at some of the novelty prop bets that are available at FanDuel for the 111th Grey Cup.

You can also check back in later today for Drew Morrison’s best bet for Sunday’s championship game.

Make sure you give me a follow @Domenic_Padula on X for all my NFL plays for Sunday.

Have a great day, everyone!