Morning Coffee: Will Rourke, Indiana pull off an upset in College Football Playoff opener?

The inexplicable Justin Herbert slander stops here. 

If there was ever any question about his talent or his toughness, he reminded us all where he stands among the best quarterbacks in the NFL with a comeback win over a division rival on Thursday Night Football.   

Trailing by 11 points in the second half and fighting through a sprained ankle, Herbert went 11-of-16 for 144 yards and two touchdown passes to lead the Los Angeles Chargers to a 34-27 victory. 

The Chargers outscored the Broncos 21-6 over the final two quarters. 

With the win, Los Angeles snapped a string of 13 straight losses when trailing by double digits. 

The Chargers also clinched the over on their regular season win total (8.5) at FanDuel, inching closer to a playoff spot in Jim Harbaugh’s first year as head coach. 

Herbert has set the record for the most completions in NFL history before turning 27-years-old. 

He’s thrown the most go-ahead TD passes in the fourth quarter or overtime in the NFL since 2021.  

Los Angeles is an NFL-best 11-4 against the spread. 

It’s fascinating to imagine where this team would be in the standings without their star quarterback. 

The Chargers aren’t a Super Bowl contender just yet. 

Still, they are clearly ahead of schedule in Year 1 under Harbaugh, and as long as Herbert stays healthy this team will remain on an upwards trajectory as the rebuild continues in Los Angeles in the years to come.  

This is the Morning Coffee for Friday December 20th, 2024. 

Will Rourke, Indiana Pull Off Upset In College Football Playoff Opener? 

It’s one of the most wonderful times of the year for football fans. 

We’re about to get absolutely spoiled this weekend. 

We’ll get 15 NFL games spread across three days from Saturday through Monday. 

We’ll also see the first round of the College Football Playoff unfold this weekend beginning with a showdown between Notre Dame and Indiana tonight on TSN. 

The Fighting Irish were a 7.5-point favourite at FanDuel for nearly the entire time since the first-round match-up was revealed. 

However, that number has ticked down to -6.5 over the past 24 hours, although it’s still juiced in Notre Dame’s favour at -115. 

Will Kurtis Rourke and Indiana kick off the College Football Playoff with an upset win on TSN? 

The Hoosiers are +198 to win outright. 

That number has come down from +220 on Thursday morning. 

Indiana remains a +4000 longshot to win the national championship at FanDuel this morning. 

Their star quarterback has a ton of confidence they can make a run. 

Rourke is +2000 to record the most passing yards in the College Football Playoff. 

Apparently, some bettors think there is value playing that number, as Rourke has been the fifth-most popular pick to lead the CFP in passing yards with 5.7 per cent of the bet count at FanDuel, per their traders. 

All eyes will be on the Oakville, Ontario-native tonight. 

Meanwhile, Ohio State remains the most popular pick to win the national championship at +500 at FanDuel with 18.4 per cent of the bet count. 

Georgia is the second-most popular pick at +500 with 15.3 per cent of the tickets at FanDuel. 

Texas, Oregon, and Notre Dame round out the five most popular selections, and it’s worth pointing out that the Ducks are the favourite as well as the most popular bet to win it all at FanDuel over the past eight days. 

The Ducks celebrated Herbert’s win in the battle of Oregon alumni last night. 

Now they are looking to add a national championship with their current star quarterback Dillon Gabriel. 

I know my guy Davis Sanchez – another former Oregon alumn - will have me cheering for the Ducks. 

Which team did you bet to win the College Football Playoff? 

Give me a follow @Domenic_Padula on X and let me know. 

I can’t wait for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff to kick off tonight on TSN. 

Meanwhile, we kicked off Week 16 in the NFL on a high note with the FanDuel Best Bets in this column going 4-0 for Thursday Night Football. 

Our NFL analyst Davis Sanchez nailed his FanDuel Best Bet once again with the over on Josh Palmer’s receiving yards number, making it a clean sweep watching the game in the TSN boardroom last night. 

Hopefully, we can pick up where we left off with another busy weekend ahead. 

In case you missed it, I played an SGP+ with Lamar Jackson 40+ rushing yards, the Baltimore Ravens to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers outright, and the Buffalo Bills to beat the New England Patriots outright at +108 odds in my Wednesday morning column. 

The Steelers are beat up right now and I think they could be vulnerable against Jackson and the Ravens in Baltimore on a short week. 

You can read that full breakdown clicking the link below. 

Turning the page this morning, it looks like I’ll only have time to lock in one play for this weekend at this point. 

I’ll recommend a Same Game Parlay with Jordan Addison 25+ receiving yards and the Minnesota Vikings to beat the Seattle Seahawks outright at -115 odds. 

The NFC North is one of the best divisions in NFL history and the Vikings have lost just one game this season against an opponent from outside their division. 

With the NFC’s No. 1 seed in the balance, Minnesota will take care of business in Seattle on Sunday with Addison extending his streak of 25 or more receiving yards to seven in a row. 

Have a great weekend and enjoy the football, everyone!