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Morning Coffee: Will the Oilers bounce back against the Habs?
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The Edmonton Oilers entered the week as the betting favourite to win the Stanley Cup in 2025.
In the past 24 hours, they’ve dropped from the favourite to the third choice even though their betting odds have remained static.
The Oilers are still +650 to win the Stanley Cup.
However, the Carolina Hurricanes and Florida Panthers have leapfrogged them as the co-favourites to win the Stanley Cup at +600 at FanDuel.
Of course, Edmonton’s odds to win it all weren’t going to get any shorter after they dropped six of seven games.
At the same time, that adjustment at the top has as much to do with the strength of the Oilers side of the playoff bracket as it does anything else.
Edmonton remains the frontrunner to represent the Western Conference in the Stanley Cup Final at +280.
That number represents a 26.3 per cent implied probability.
However, the Western Conference is very clearly the deeper side of the NHL playoff bracket, featuring four of the top six choices to win the Stanley Cup.
The fact that list doesn’t even include the first-place team in the Winnipeg Jets is a testament to how difficult it will be for the top contenders in the West.
Can the Oilers live up to the hype and beat out some tough competition to reach the Stanley Cup Final for the second year in a row?
Despite their struggles, recent history illustrates why there’s no reason for hockey fans in Edmonton to hit the panic button right now.
This is the Morning Coffee for Thursday March 6th, 2025.
Will The Oilers Bounce Back Against The Habs?
The Oilers opened as the favourite to win it all at FanDuel last summer after they pushed the Florida Panthers to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final before just falling short.
Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are the NHL’s most talented teammate duo and after a deep postseason run, Edmonton appeared primed to run it back after a minor retool that include some notable offseason adjustments.
The additions of Viktor Arvidsson, Jeff Skinner, and Vasily Podkolzin haven’t resulted in the immediate impact that most fans and fantasy hockey managers expected.
Still, the Oilers position in the standings is similar to this time last year, and despite their recent struggles the Pacific Division title is still very much within reach.
How important is it for Edmonton to beat out the Vegas Golden Knights for the best record in the division?
Last year, the Oilers finished second in the Pacific, then took down the Los Angeles Kings and Vancouver Canucks to reach the Western Conference Final.
Edmonton went 6-3 in nine playoff road games.
That run included winning Game 7 in Vancouver in the second round and Game 5 in Dallas in the Western Conference Final.
Of course, the Oilers playoff path will be a lot more difficult if they must go through the Kings, Golden Knights, and then potentially one of the Jets, Stars, or Colorado Avalanche in the Western Conference Final.
Still, Edmonton is a top five choice to win the Stanley Cup at FanDuel in terms of both bets and handle, so don’t expect to see any significant adjustment to their odds to win it all barring some major unforeseen circumstances.
In terms of an adjustment we did see, the Oilers odds to beat the Montreal Canadiens tonight have lengthened from -310 to -260 at FanDuel.
The Canadiens beat Edmonton 3-0 in their first meeting on November 18th.
The Habs have won five in a row to climb back into the Eastern Conference playoff race and the expectation is that they will be playing with a ton of urgency again tonight ahead of Friday’s NHL trade deadline.
Edmonton needs a win to get its season back on track.
Montreal needs a win to gain some important ground in the Eastern Conference playoff race.
That will make tonight’s game between the Oilers and Habs on TSN worth tuning in to watch.
Regardless of the outcome, don’t expect to see a major adjustment to Edmonton’s Stanley Cup odds at this point.
A FanDuel Best Bet For Thursday Night
In terms of a FanDuel Best Bet, I’ll go with a Same Game Parlay that features Brayden Point to record 1+ point and the Tampa Bay Lightning to beat the Buffalo Sabres in regulation at +100 odds.
Point has averaged over a point per game this season.
I’ll bank on him to register at least one point tonight skating with Nikita Kucherov and Jake Guentzel against an opponent that has allowed four or more goals in each of four straight losses.
I also sprinkled on Yanni Gourde anytime goal at +490.
The return of Gourde and addition of Oliver Bjorkstand makes the Lightning as dangerous as any team in the Eastern Conference.
I took a flyer on the Bolts to win the Stanley Cup at +1400.
I’m not sure if they have the horses to get back there, but I like that number in a wide-open Eastern Conference.
I do think Tampa Bay will be focused on the standings tonight, while there’s a good chance their opponent – the Buffalo Sabres – plays a little tighter with several players wondering about whether they will be moved ahead of Friday’s NHL trade deadline.
Meanwhile, I also bet a traditional two-team parlay that features the Oilers to win outright and the Lightning to win outright at +100.
Edmonton is coming off a tough letdown spot after ending a long road trip with a win over the Carolina Hurricanes and then laying an egg in their return home against the Anaheim Ducks.
The Oilers have just one regulation win since January 27th, so there should be a major sense of urgency in their locker room tonight.
I also sprinkled on the Hart Trophy favourite Leon Draisaitl to score a goal at -120.
As much as it’s important for him to play a two-way game, Edmonton needs his scoring touch up front.
What are the odds the future Rocket Richard Trophy winner scores another important goal in a 3-2 win over the Habs on home ice?
Have a great day, everyone!