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Bellus' Betting Breakdown: The biggest week in coin vs. public history
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It’s been a long week.
The clocks moved back an hour last Sunday and the days have never felt shorter. You wake up and it’s dark outside. You drive home from work and it’s dark outside.
In a world filled with darkness it’s important to find sources of light, no matter the size.
Fortunately for all the hockey heads in Canada we have another Saturday filled with NHL action to provide a distraction from the profound darkness that consumes us all this time of year.
And fortunately for myself, we have the publics most popular plays for tonight’s slate which have been an automatic fade the first four weeks of the season.
If you’re new here, first of all I’m sorry, each week I take the public’s three most popular moneyline picks for Saturday night in the NHL and am putting them head-to-head with a coin.
I wasn’t sure where this public vs. coin experiment would take us, but as we enter the second weekend of November I have one giant takeaway: You all aren't very good at this.
But fear not, maybe the darker days and more time indoors will help. Maybe it will give you all more time to get in the lab and cook up some winners. For your sake I hope you do. Because we’re 12 games into this little experiment the coin grabbed an early lead and hasn't looked back.
But before we get to the flips, let’s take a look at some betting information from FanDuel and identify a few plus-money props to consider for tonight’s slate.
Make sure you scroll to the bottom of the article to see what the coin likes this week, along with a TikTok video of the coin flips and for a recap of all the picks to start the season.
MOST PUBLIC SIDE
MOST POPULAR NHL TEAMS
| Away | Home | Popular side |
|---|---|---|
| New York Rangers | Detroit Red Wings | Rangers -210 |
| Carolina Hurricanes | Colorado Avalanche | Hurricanes -126 |
| Philadelphia Flyers | Florida Panthers | Panthers -275 |
| Montreal Canadiens | Toronto Maple Leafs | Leafs -215 |
| Ottawa Senators | Boston Bruins | Bruins -140 |
Jonathan Quick will make his third start of the year for the New York Rangers as he looks to improve to 3-0 on the season. Quick is 20-6-2 with the Rangers since joining the team last season and is 16-14-1 in 31 games with a goals against average of 2.78 and a save percentage of .906 versus the Red Wings in his career.
New York is aiming to sweep the season season against Detroit after a 4-1 win at Madison Square Garden on Oct. 14 before taking a 5-2 victory at Little Caesars Arena three days later.
Meanwhile the 10-2 Carolina Hurricanes will look to keep the winning ways going against the 6-8 Colorado Avalanche.
Pyotr Kochetkov is expected to start for Carolina, he is 1-1 against the Avalanche in his career. In his lone start in Colorado, Kochetkov allowed six goals on 27 shots in a 6-4 loss.
Finally, the Florida Panthers look to extend their win-streak to seven as they host the Philadelphia Flyers.
Alternate captain Matthew Tkachuk will play the 600th game of his career tonight. He has 14 points in 15 career games against the Flyers.
PLAYER PROPS TO MONITOR
So far I have spotlighted 22 props in this portion of the article with a 11-11 record, which includes going 2-2 last week after identifying four plus-money props.
This week we’re running it back with another batch of plus-money props for Saturday night with a success rate of 70 per cent or higher to start the year.
PLAYER PROPS TO MONITOR
Player | Prop | 2024 Success Rate | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Monahan | O 2.5 Shots on Goal | 75 per cent | +128 |
| Nathan MacKinnon | O 0.5 Powerplay Points | 71 per cent | +105 |
| Noah Dobson | U 0.5 Points | 71 per cent | +110 |
| Dylan Strome | O 0.5 Assists | 77 per cent | +110 |
Canadian team anytime goal scorer Same Game Parlay of the week
Between a George Michael tribute show on Thursday and a trip to the theater on Saturday it's been a busy week for my mom.
Her and I have been like two ships passing in the night all week and never got the chance to sit down and put a parlay together.
Still, she found the time this afternoon to lock in "#13 on the Montreal Canadiens" via text message just before the show was about to begin.
While I never got an explanation I can only assume it has something to do with the fact the Habs are my uncle Nick's favourite team, they are playing the Toronto Maple Leafs and she likes the number 13.
So with Cole Caufield locked in, I will add Bobby McMann as the second and make it a mother-son parlay this week.
McMann has two goals in three games against the Canadiens in his young career and enters this game having not scored in 11-straight games.
McMann wears number 74 for the Leafs, 7+4= 11. He's gone 11 games without a goal.
Now lets add the number of players in this parlay to that 11 number:11 + 2 = 13. There is that lucky No. 13 again. It's all making sense.
Caufield-McMann anytime goal parlay +1150.
PUBLIC VS. COIN
It was another winning week for the coin last Saturday, nailing the Nashville Predators and St. Louis Blues.
Meanwhile, Johnny Public has continued to struggle going 0-3, falling to 3-9 on the season.
The coin (7-5) looks to extend it’s lead again this week. Here are the picks:
Public: Rangers, Hurricanes, Panthers
Coin: Red Wings, Avalanche, Flyers
@just_a_guy_63 This might be the biggest week in coin flipping history #nhl #betting #sportsbettingtiktok #sportsbetting #luck #fanduel #hockey ♬ original sound - Just a Guy
Public vs. Coin
| Date | Public | Record | Coin | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov. 2 | Colorado, Los Angeles, Toronto | 1-2 | Nashville, Los Angeles, St. Louis. | 2-1 |
| Oct. 26 | Columbus, Florida, St. Louis | 1-2 | Nashville, Florida, St. Louis | 2-1 |
| Oct. 19 | Tampa Bay, Nashville, New York Rangers | 1-2 | Tampa Bay, Detroit, Toronto | 1-2 |
| Oct. 12 | Boston, Colorado, Nashville | 1-2 | Boston, Columbus, Nashville. | 2-1 |