Now We Go: We Are Back

There are three certainties in life.

Death, taxes and week 1 of the NFL season springing eternal hope and optimism.

What if this is the year your favourite team goes 17-0? What if all of your fantasy sleepers hit? What if we don’t lose a bet all season?

There is so much for us to conquer over the next six months, and as we sit here on Week 1 with a blank canvas, I can’t help but wonder how we can make it the best season of our lives.

If there is one thing I have learned over the last 18 months, it’s that your health is never a certainty.

That’s right, the rumours are true. This column was put on the shelf last year since I was a tad preoccupied having been diagnosed with -- and eventually beating -- Stage 3 cancer.

We would’ve had 19 weeks to victory lap some of the best Baltimore Ravens futures you have never seen.

But like I said, I had to put my focus elsewhere for a bit. I wish I could tell you now that I was back and better than ever, but I’m not, at least not yet.

Life on the other side of chemotherapy ain’t no joke, and I won’t feel like the best version of myself for a long time.

But the NFL and this industry waits for nobody. So here I am. Get your licks in now because once I get up to full speed, there simply won’t be any stopping me.

The good thing for us is that while I continue down this new journey of rediscovering my life, I still plan on being one of the sharpest (and somehow dumbest) NFL minds in this country, something I have proven week after week over the last four years.

If you’re new here, nice to meet you. I’m sorry it had to be this intro and not something else.

Most weeks, I’ll be here with three to four key storylines and bets for the week.

Where my brain takes me week to week is up to my brain; all I can promise is that each week will be a bit more unique than the other. Don’t think of this as a column. Think of it like a snowflake.

This week, I needed an outlet to get some season-long thoughts off my chest. So, let’s do exactly that.

Detroit, I am yours for 2024

It’s officially time to restore the roar. Head Coach Dan Campbell and the Detroit Lions are building something special and it’s starting to feel like a Super Bowl is headed their way. The Lions were a huge winner this off-season when offensive coordinator Ben Johnson decided to pass on a head coaching job of his own to stay with the team. In the current NFL, with coordinators changing jobs every off-season, I think we’ll see the Lions benefit from another year will the same voices on the coaching staff. Detroit will play outdoors just three times this season, something that should play right into the (small) hands of Jared Goff, who has a history of underperforming in cold weather outdoor environments. After being fully invested in the Baltimore Ravens last year I have pivoted my futures to Detroit. Here’s to this being the year they finally break through.

Three playoff teams I’m fading

We see a large amount of turnover every year in the playoffs. Since the expanded playoff was birthed in 2020, we have seen at least five new playoff teams every season. If that trend holds this year, I believe two – if not all three – of the San Francisco 49ers, Dallas Cowboys and Buffalo Bills will miss the playoffs. The 49ers are one of the more talented rosters in the league, but they also happen to be one of the oldest. Their two stars on offence, Christian McCaffery and Deebo Samuel, are always one hit away from missing time, and I can’t help but notice Kyle Shannan’s only losing season this decade came the year after losing in a Super Bowl. As for the Cowboys, it seems like they’re stuck in neutral, and in this league, if you’re not moving forward, teams will fly by you. The team failed to upgrade in key areas and will have Dak Prescott’s expiring contract hanging over their heads all season. Finally, the Bills and their $60 million of dead cap are my biggest fade of the season. I love Josh Allen, but even he’s not superman. I’ll happily invest again in the Bills at better numbers next year.

I have no Jets futures but I love them Week 1

The New York Jets are an awesome team with awesome players everywhere you look. If we lived in a world without injuries, we would already know what this team looked like with Aaron Rodgers in control. But that’s not the world we live in. Rodgers’ season ended after just four snaps last year. The last touchdown drive he led in the NFL was December 2022. That’s a long time ago. Remember December last year? When reports came out of New York that Rodgers was going to play in the regular season despite an Achilles tear in Week 1. Yeah, that never happened. In fact, Rodgers didn’t play in the preseason and the team held him out of a few summer practices in wet conditions. Nothing about Rodgers’ age / mindset is making me rush to place a future on this team. I have no idea if he’ll survive 17 games, but if he does this is a playoff team. With all that said I am rushing to bet the Jets in Week 1, which mainly says more about their defence and that I think the 49ers will start slow after a very weird training camp that featured not one but two contract holdouts from key players on offence.

I don’t play season long player props but...

I couldn’t say no to Deshaun Watson’s under for passing yards for the year. Watson has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the league since landing with the Cleveland Browns, and I don’t see why that will change this year. The Browns have a clear identity: Pound the ball and beat you with defence. Watson has averaged just 184.8 yards per game with Cleveland, meaning if he plays 17 games this year he’ll need to average at least 10 more yards per game to go over this number. Speaking of playing 17 games, I doubt Watson does it, seeing as he’s only played in 12 of a possible 34 games with the Browns over the last two years. Waiting four months to cash -120 seems silly, but so does passing up on a winner.

The Colts might be a problem this year

Every NFL season features a sleeper team and my Indianapolis Colts might be this year’s team. The Colts would’ve won the division last year if a third-string running back caught a fourth down pass in Week 18 delivered by their journeyman backup quarterback. Had that pass been caught the Colts win the division, win a playoff game and are the darlings of every handicapper in the world coming into the season. Instead, everyone has forgotten about them. Anthony Richardson’s rookie season didn’t last long, but he sure looked good when he played. What's stopping  my Colts from bouncing back this year the same way the Cincinnati Bengals did a few years ago when Joe Burrow came off an injury in year two to lead them to a Super Bowl appearance?

I have *gulp* eight units on the Colts Week 1

More Colts talk. Indy is winning Week 1, you heard it here first. The Colts went 0-2 last year against Houston, we’ve already talked about how a drop decided the Week 18 game, meanwhile the Week 1 game was their (and the league’s) first chance to see C.J. Stroud in a meaningful NFL game. So last year, they saw Stroud with no tape, and then saw him in Week 18 when the team was fully involved and firing on all cylinders. Now Indy has the benefit of studying Stroud’s rookie season all summer to be ready. Houston will also be finding a way to make Stefon Diggs happy early while also making sure everyone else is getting their touches. The line also feels like a trap. You’re telling me Houston isn’t going to win and cover the 2.5? That seems far too easy. Give me the home underdog in a Week 1 divisional game. Winning in this league is never easy, and if you’re comfortable betting on this league, you’re doing it wrong. Colts' moneyline isn’t comfortable, and that’s okay because the comfort comes after the game when you’re counting the winnings. As for the eight units, I made a deal with myself to sprinkle Colts Week 1 ML Week 1 every time I hit a golf outright this summer. So, after cashing nine winners, I’ve ended up here.

The last team to get a win will be…

I love the New England Patriots at +480 to be the last team in the league to get a win this year. If you listen to first-year head coach Jerod Mayo you’ll hear a man being very careful with his words. By all accounts, rookie quarterback Drake Maye was the best QB at camp, but with an offensive line that might be the worst in the league, New England will trot out Jacoby Brissett to lead the team early in the year. The time sitting for Maybe should be welcomed by Patriots fans since it’ll give him time to develop and get familiar with the speed of the game at this level. But what’s best for Maye and the team’s futures isn’t what’s best for the team *right now*. New England isn’t fielding their best possible team to start the year and have a brutal schedule. Last week I sat down with two good buddies of mine to predict every game in the NFL this year. We had New England going 0-16-1 so give me the +420 for them to be the last winless team this year.