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Open Championship First Click: Trends, Major resumes and more
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The final major championship of the men’s 2024 season gets underway this week at Royal Troon Golf Club, which means another edition of our First Clicks column.
Before we get to the selections, I’ll highlight key storylines, stats, and trends to help you make your picks this week.
World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is back in action this week for the first time since picking up his sixth win of the season at the Travelers Championship.
Scheffler has undoubtedly been the best player in the world this year. However, he has just one top-20 finish in the three Open Championships he’s played in.
Scheffler’s +500 odds to win this week represent an implied probability of 16.67 per cent.
With weather and winds always a question mark around the Open Championship, I’m less inclined to get in a first click on any of the top names in the field before seeing the draw.
However, I’ve found a golfer at 90-1 this week who just might be bold enough to win his second major championship of his career this week.
More on that later.
Open Championship Trends
- Seventeen of the past 23 Champion Golfers had recorded a top-10 finish at The Open.
- Nine of the past 10 Open Championship winners had recorded a top-three finish in at least one of his previous five events.
- The last 10 players to win the Open Championship were ranked inside the top 40 on the Official World Golf Ranking.
- The last 10 Open Championship winners all had at least one top-2 finish in a major.
- The last 10 Open Championship winners all had a prior Top 20 in the Open (if they had played in the event).
This will be the 10th Open Championship held at Royal Troon and the third of the 21st century. Todd Hamilton beat Ernie Els in a playoff to win the 2004 Open Championship at this course, and Henrik Stenson tied the all-time lowest score recorded in an Open Championship with his -20 in 2016.
Here is a look at the leaders in strokes gained since that 2016 Open Championship.
Open Championship
| GOLFER | RDs | OTT | APP | BS | ARG | PUTT | SG | T2G | TOT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cameron Young | 8 | 1.56 | 1.69 | 3.25 | 0.16 | -0.02 | 0.14 | 3.4 | 3.38 |
| Rory McIlroy | 26 | 1.5 | 0.99 | 2.49 | 0.51 | 0.46 | 0.97 | 3 | 2.46 |
| Jordan Spieth | 28 | 0.4 | 1.21 | 1.61 | 0.5 | -0.22 | 0.28 | 2.11 | 2.45 |
| Viktor Hovland | 12 | 0.57 | 1.01 | 1.58 | 0.21 | 0.72 | 0.93 | 1.79 | 2.32 |
| Henrik Stenson | 24 | -0.07 | 1.48 | 1.41 | 0.2 | -0.26 | -0.06 | 1.61 | 2.26 |
| Collin Morikawa | 8 | 0.14 | 0.58 | 0.73 | 0.05 | -0.76 | -0.71 | 0.78 | 2.11 |
| Tom Kim | 8 | 0.31 | 0.34 | 0.64 | 0.15 | 1.09 | 1.24 | 0.79 | 1.88 |
| Tommy Fleetwood | 26 | 0.25 | 1 | 1.25 | 0.47 | 0.91 | 1.39 | 1.72 | 1.86 |
| Brian Harman | 18 | 0.6 | 0.25 | 0.85 | 0.28 | 2.51 | 2.79 | 1.13 | 1.79 |
| Scottie Scheffler | 12 | 1.06 | 1.01 | 2.07 | 0.25 | -0.81 | -0.56 | 2.32 | 1.74 |
Cameron Young hasn’t been around for a long time, but his name has been a mainstay on major leaderboards the last two seasons.
Young has played in just two Open Championships; he finished runner-up in 2022 and tied for eighth in 2023.
Not far behind Young in strokes gained is Rory McIlroy. The 35-year-old has finished inside the top 10 in five of his past seven Open Championships.
While McIlroy hasn’t won a major in more than 10 years, the fact remains he’s still one of the best players in the world in these events. Since 2016 he has 19 top-10 finishes at majors.
Speaking of majors, here is a look at the strokes gained leaders in the four majors since COVID-19.
Major Resume
| GOLFER | RDs | OTT | APP | BS | ARG | PUTT | SG | T2G | TOT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 66 | 0.85 | 1.06 | 1.91 | 0.49 | 0.14 | 0.63 | 2.4 | 2.5 |
| Ludvig Åberg | 10 | 1.15 | 0.7 | 1.85 | -0.63 | 1.26 | 0.63 | 1.22 | 2.48 |
| Rory McIlroy | 68 | 1.17 | 0.59 | 1.76 | 0.3 | 0.32 | 0.62 | 2.08 | 2.28 |
| Xander Schauffele | 68 | 0.57 | 0.82 | 1.4 | 0.42 | 0.43 | 0.85 | 1.82 | 2.19 |
| Will Zalatoris | 41 | 0.54 | 1.01 | 1.54 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 1.64 | 2.14 |
| Collin Morikawa | 66 | 0.55 | 0.88 | 1.43 | 0.22 | 0.29 | 0.51 | 1.66 | 2.08 |
| Jon Rahm | 66 | 0.96 | 0.47 | 1.43 | 0.23 | 0.29 | 0.52 | 1.66 | 2.01 |
| Viktor Hovland | 59 | 0.45 | 0.63 | 1.08 | 0.15 | 0.47 | 0.62 | 1.24 | 1.73 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 64 | 1.13 | 0.42 | 1.55 | -0.05 | 0.24 | 0.19 | 1.5 | 1.69 |
| Cameron Smith | 68 | -0.2 | 0.66 | 0.46 | 0.33 | 0.84 | 1.17 | 0.8 | 1.63 |
Expectations were high for Ludvig Åberg when he turned pro at the 2023 Canadian Open.
Since then, he has had two worldwide wins and nearly added a third at the Masters, the first major of his career.
Typically, with a sample this small I’d throw it away. But Åberg has is a special talent, and it was confirmed when he was selected for the 2023 Ryder Cup despite having been a pro for just four months and had never teed it up in a major championship.
He enters this week fresh off one of the worst rounds of his professional career with a three-over 73 on Sunday at the Scottish Open when he failed to close out the biggest win of his young career.
I expect him to learn from it, don’t be surprised to see his name appear high on this week’s leaderboard early and often.
BEST IN FIELD
The Open Championship provides one of the more unique fields we see in men’s professional golf every year.
Here is a look at the top players in the field according to strokes gained.
Best in field
| GOLFER | RDs | OTT | APP | BS | ARG | PUTT | SG | T2G | TOT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 59 | 0.84 | 1.42 | 2.26 | 0.53 | 0.06 | 0.59 | 2.79 | 2.77 |
| Ernie Els | 41 | 2.55 | |||||||
| Louis Oosthuizen | 40 | 0.51 | 0.44 | 0.95 | -0.06 | 0.62 | 0.55 | 0.89 | 2.36 |
| Joaquin Niemann | 54 | 0.62 | 1.32 | 1.94 | 0.14 | -0.16 | -0.02 | 2.07 | 2.3 |
| John Catlin | 43 | 2.17 | |||||||
| Xander Schauffele | 64 | 0.54 | 0.81 | 1.36 | 0.3 | 0.63 | 0.92 | 1.65 | 2.15 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 42 | 0.99 | 0.24 | 1.23 | 0.23 | 0.55 | 0.78 | 1.47 | 2.01 |
| Sebastian Söderberg | 48 | -0.11 | 1.11 | 1.01 | 0.14 | 0.02 | 0.16 | 1.15 | 2.01 |
| Rory McIlroy | 64 | 1 | 0.51 | 1.51 | 0.27 | 0.28 | 0.55 | 1.78 | 2 |
| Jon Rahm | 34 | 0.81 | 0.15 | 0.96 | 0.4 | 0.33 | 0.74 | 1.37 | 1.7 |
If you want to win on the Champions Tour in 2024 you’ll likely have to go through Ernie Els/
Els has won three times since June and has four other finishes inside the top 10 in 2024.
The South African has made the cut just twice in his last seven Open Championships. He has played in three opens at this course, missing the cut in 2016, finishing runner-up in 2004 and tying for 10th in 1997.
John Catlin has had an interesting 2024. The American has made starts on three different tours, and picked up back-to-back wins on the Asian Tour before joining Crusher GC as a reserve player to fill in for an injured Charles Howell III.
Catlin has played in two Open Championships, he’s missed the cut in both.
FIRST CLICK
My first click for this week was made in September when I snagged Åberg at 80-1, he’s now down to 14-1, so I’m considering that a win.
But that was then, my first click for this week is Louis Oosthuizen at 95-1.
Oosthuizen won twice in December on the DP World Tour and finished in the top 10 in five of his 10 LIV Golf starts in 2024.
On LIV, Oosthuizen leads the league in scrambling and ranks third in fairways hit and putting average.
The 41-year-old hasn’t played in a major this year, so I was hopeful he’d fly under the radar, and this number would continue to lengthen. However, early signs from Golf X lead me to believe he’ll be popular this week.
If you want to jump in, the time is now. This mid-90s number should be gone by Wednesday.