Pick and Roll: WNBA second-round playoff preview

The second round of the WNBA Playoffs have arrived, which means Brianne Spiker and I are back to another edition of Pick and Roll presented by FanDuel.

For the first time since the playoff format changed in 2022, all four opening-round series ended in a sweep with the higher seed winning all of them. 

If you missed our Round 1 preview, you missed Spiker correctly predicting all four winners from each series. A parlay off her four winners would’ve paid +112 while a parlay on all four top seeds to sweep their series would’ve paid +515. 

As we turn the page to the second round I have once again tapped the services of Spiker to see if she can stay hot as the playoffs continue. 

Let’s get to the action. 

No. 1 New York Liberty vs. No.4 Las Vegas Aces 

A rematch of the 2023 finals, the New York Liberty get their chance to repay Las Vegas the favour of ending their season this year. 

Last year, the Aces were the top seed in the league, with home-court advantage going unbeaten at Michelob Ultra Arena. This year, the Liberty are the higher and will play host to the Aces with a deciding fifth-game set to take place at the Barclays Center if necessary. 

The Liberty have been the best and most consistent team in the W all season, winning at least five games every month during the regular season and were the only team with a winning percentage of .800 or better this year. 

After steamrolling Atlanta in Game 1, Sabrina Ionescu put an exclamation mark on the series in Game 2 with a career-high 36 points. 

Meanwhile, the Aces have had the most dominant player in the league this year in A’ja Wilson. Her play in the opening round wasn’t earth-shattering, but 22.5 points, 10.5 rebounds and 2 assists per game were more than enough to lead the Aces to an opening-round sweep. 

The Aces also benefited in the first round from Chelsea Gray finding her scoring touch. Gray scored 16 points in Game 1 and added another 12 in Game 2. Gray averaged 8.6 points per game in the regular season and scored 12 or more points in just eight of her 27 games. 

She is 95-1 to lead the series in points, while Wilson is the overwhelming favourite at -250. Breanna Stewart and Ionescu are the only other players shorter than 10-1. 

Spiker’s Take: For this series, my eyes are on Stewart for this one. With her packed trophy case of four NCAA titles, three Olympic gold medals and two WNBA championships, she is not used to being on the losing end of things. However, last season was the rare time someone got the best of her as the Aces walked away with the trophy while the Liberty's hunt for their first title in franchise history went another year. 

Stewart took a big chance leaving the Seattle Storm, the team that drafted her first overall in 2016 and where she had a ton of success, to come back home to New York and get the Liberty that elusive title. In my books, Stewart doesn't let the Aces get by her again. 

My pick: Liberty in four (+370)

No. 2 Minnesota Lynx vs. No. 3 Connecticut Sun 

The story of the opening round was Napheesa Collier. 

The 2019 WNBA Rookie of the Year made history in the first round, becoming the first player in league history to score 38 or more points in back-to-back playoff games. She also set a WNBA record for the most points (80) over a two-game stretch in the playoffs.

Collier’s scoring carried the Lynx to a sweep over Phoenix, but not to be lost in the headlines is Canadian Bridget Carleton. After setting career-highs in points and rebounds and finishing third in voting to win Most Improved this season, she had another solid two games to open the postseason. 

Carleton scored 12 points in both games, landing third on the team in points in the postseason while adding five rebounds and four assists per game. 

Meanwhile, the Connecticut Sun did in the opening round what they always do: Win. 

The Sun have won a playoff series in eight straight years, sporting the longest active streak in the league.

Connecticut’s big mid-season trade for Marina Mabrey paid dividends in the first round, with the guard leading the team in points thanks partly to the eight three-pointers she made over the two games. 

The Sun are looking to return to the final for the first time since losing in four games to the Aces in 2022. 

Spiker’s Take: The Sun have struggled to finish the job when it matters most in the playoffs. Since 2019, they've lost two WNBA Finals and multiple semifinal series. The Sun swept the Fever but the Lynx are a whole different beast. The Fever's downfall was their lack of experience and depth while Minnesota has way more experience and balance on their roster and Collier is playing the best basketball of her career. 

The Lynx have had their best season in years and while Connecticut had a great season too, I don't think they can break the title drought this year.

My pick: Lynx in four (+330)