Bellus’ Betting Breakdown: The Players Championship card

Just when you thought it was over, Bellus’ Betting Breakdown has returned. 

After countless DMs and text messages from people begging me to bring this column back, I have decided to make my return. 

Okay, fine. The “texts” were my mother asking me why I’m not writing as much anymore, and the part about DMs was a flat-out lie. 

But that doesn’t matter. We’re back. And there’s no better time to be back. 

The Players Championship is one of my favourite events on the golf calendar every season, and this year I plan on picking the winner again. 

In 2023, I gave you Scottie Scheffler at 10-1 to win, and in 2024, we cashed Xander Schauffele at 33-1 to be first-round leader (sure, it chopped three ways, but a 33-1 cash is a 33-1 cash).

Maybe it’s all the TPC Sawgrass I’ve played in 2K, maybe it’s the hours of research, but something about this tournament gets the juices flowing.

This year, I’ve got a loaded card, so let’s dive in.

Outright 

Xander Schauffele 25 

Jordan Spieth 80 

Will Zalatoris 80 

Nick Taylor 120 

I really like this number on Xander Schauffele.

The American returned to action last week at possibly the toughest test on Tour this year—a baked-out Bay Hill with high winds. Schauffele, sidelined the past two months with a rib injury, gained over one stroke off the tee and on approach in the opening round but shot a 77 as his rusty short game got exposed. The T40 finish at the end of the week isn’t special, but his stat profile says his swing is in a good spot, and I’ve got faith in his short game this week at a TPC Sawgrass that should play softer after recent rain. Plus, this might be my only shot all year to play Xander at a price this long. I’ll bite.

Jordan Spieth was my first click at this event for several reasons. Spieth has been solid in 2025, with two top-10s in four starts—just one shy of his total for all of 2024. Three starts ago, he gained over six shots on approach with his irons, so we could see more elite ball-striking this week. He also stayed home last week while much of the field battled a tough Bay Hill for four days. In a Ryder Cup year, fresh off being “snubbed” for a sponsor’s exemption at a big event, I think we’ll see Spieth at his best, even though his lone top-10 here came 10 years ago.

If loving Will Zalatoris is wrong, I don’t want to be right. I wrote about Zal last week in my First Click column and was pleasantly surprised with his T22 at Bay Hill. The 28-year-old has gained strokes tee-to-green in four of five events this year, and I’m hopeful he’ll find some magic with that broomstick putter this week.

Rounding out my outright card is Canadian Nick Taylor. Taylor is no stranger to marquee wins on the PGA Tour, with victories previously at The Canadian Open, Pebble Beach and the WM Phoenix Open. The bright lights and big stage don’t faze me with Taylor. Nor does his approach play in 2025. The Canadian leads the field in weighted strokes gained on approach over everyone’s last 24 rounds.

W/O Scottie, Collin, Ludvig, Rory, Xander 

Justin Rose: 80

Kevin Yu: 120

Rico Hoey: 170

FanDuel is offering a market this week without some of the bigger threats to win. How it is simple. Remove the players from the field and that is your new leaderboard. If Scheffler wins the tournament and Justin Rose finishes in second, Rose would cash as this market is without Scottie and the other four names listed. Since I’m on Xander, I’ll try to nail a 1-2 punch, starting with Justin Rose.

Rose has been boom-or-bust in 2025, with two top-10s and two missed cuts to start the year. The same can be said of his recent history at TPC Sawgrass. This week, I’m leaning into a big boom for one reason: It’s a Ryder Cup year, and Rose at TPC Sawgrass in a Ryder Cup year is a different animal. His best finish here was a tie for fourth in 2014 (Ryder Cup year); his next best was a tie for sixth in 2023 (Ryder Cup year). His last four starts at this event in Ryder Cup years have all landed inside the top 25.

Kevin Yu and Rico Hoey are total dart throws, if I’m being honest. Yu rates high on my model this week, and the 2024 Sanderson Farms winner has gained on approach in six straight events. Meanwhile, after Hoey was a popular pick to win in Puerto Rico last week, I’m backing him again to be a lesser-known name near the top of the leaderboard.

First Round Leader 

Sepp Straka 55 

Will Zalatoris 70

Alex Smalley 100

Straka seems like a very popular play this week on Golf Betting X, and while I can’t get there on his outright number this price to be first round leader is catching my eye. I have Straka ranked as my second best golfer in the field since Jan. 1 and over everyone’s last 24 rounds he is seventh best at gaining four-or-more strokes to the field. 

Zalatoris really has my attention this week. Make a few putts early on Thursday and it could be a great week. 

Alex Smalley is fifth on my model this week and has the most rounds in this field of 4+ strokes gained over everyone's last 24 rounds. I’ll take a flyer on him catching fire on Thursday.

Cut

Ludvig Aberg: +260 to miss

Sungjae Im: +180 to miss

Wyndham Clark: +150 to miss

This is the most volatile event of the year, so I’m leaning into it with a few names I’d usually never fade.

Starting with Ludvig Aberg. Look, Ludvig is my guy—we cashed on him at 25-1 to win The Genesis Invitational last month—but our golden boy has lost strokes on approach in two of his last three tournaments. I’m not sure TPC Sawgrass is the ideal spot for his game to separate from the field. Yes, he tied for eighth here in 2024, but everyone misses a cut here from time to time. With his irons shaky and a less ideal weather draw, I’ll nibble at +260.

As for Sungjae Im, his game is trending the wrong way. Unless he finds something this week, I expect a quick two-round exit. The 26-year-old has lost three or more strokes on approach in five of his last seven starts. Before this stretch, he lost three or more strokes just six times from August 2021 to December 2024.

Finally, Wyndham Clark is my guy—it was in a Players Championship article a few years ago that I spotted his stellar approach play months before he won a U.S. Open. But his lack of accuracy off the tee this year (162nd in driving accuracy, 97th in strokes gained off the tee) has me worried he’ll be out of position and might find water, which this course offers in spades.

Top 10

Michael Kim: +650
Taylor: +700
Rose: +800
Joe Highsmith: +900
Laurie Canter: +1000
Rico Hoey: +1600

I feel late to the party, but I’m jumping on Michael Kim at a juicy price to top-10 this week. Kim has gained at least six shots tee-to-green in four of his last five starts, with three top-10 finishes in that span. Earlier this week, world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler told reporters this course doesn’t really favour anyone and that the guys playing best coming in tend to perform well at TPC Sawgrass. Over everyone’s last 24 rounds, only Sepp Straka and Justin Thomas rank higher than Kim in weighted strokes gained total.

Joe Highsmith will forever be the one that got away. Two weeks ago, he ranked No. 1 on my model and on course comps. I didn’t play him at 120-1, and of course, he won. So this week, I’ll roll with him to keep his solid play going and crack the top 10.

Laurie Canter is about to make history as the first former LIV Golf player to tee it up in a PGA Tour event. Canter has been awesome on the DP World Tour this year, and if his irons travel across the pond, I won’t be shocked to see his name near the top Sunday afternoon.