Road to Montreal: An upset 26 years in the making

If you are superstitious (or Italian), the saying “good things come in threes” is probably something you’ve heard before, and as we approach the 2024 Presidents Cup from Royal Montreal Golf Club, it feels as fitting as it gets.

International captain Mike Weir made history in 2003 when he became the first Canadian to win a major by capturing the Masters. He followed that up in 2007 with a historic victory over Tiger Woods in Sunday singles at the Presidents Cup (the last time it was held at Royal Montreal.)

Now, it’s time for a third piece of history. 

The Canadian captains an International squad looking to win the Presidents Cup for the first time since 1998 and just the second time in the event's history. 

Weir and his International squad are +260 underdogs to pull off a historic upset over Team USA this week. Here are three reasons why they will do it. 

We’ve seen this movie before 

Leading into the 2023 Ryder Cup, one key storyline flew under the radar for Team USA: only three players played in a competitive tournament between the Tour Championship and the event in Rome. The lack of prep turned out to be a major factor as Europe won by a wide margin.

Wyndham Clark, a member of that American team, pointed out that his lack of reps made him feel rusty. “Through four holes, I said [to Max Homa], ‘Man, I'm sorry,’” Clark said in an interview published on the PGA Tour’s website last year, “Because I kind of was not playing good the first four holes. I said, ‘I'm sorry, I'm not tournament sharp right now.’ He added, “I felt like a lot of us weren't prepared.”

Fast forward to this year, and we enter the Presidents Cup with only three Americans – Sahith Theegala, Homa and Clark – having played in a competitive event since the Tour Championship. Now, it’s worth pointing out that all 12 of the Europeans played in a DP World Tour event the week before last year’s Ryder Cup and only half of this year’s International team has played since the Tour Championship, but all six International players made the cut in their event, while two of the three Americans that played missed their cut.

These rosters are unbeLIeVable 

We have to address the elephant in the room. The Presidents Cup is a PGA Tour event, and you have to be a member of the PGA Tour to participate.

Americans Bryson DeChambeau and Brooks Koepka don’t fit that criteria. Yes, some key players making the jump to LIV Golf have altered the International roster. That list is headlined by Cam Smith, Joaquin Niemann and Louis Oosthuizen. But the Americans have lost access to two of the seven most recent major champions. That seems like a trade that benefits the International side. 

“It’s a pretty simple golf course for the most part.” 

When asked about the golf course earlier this week, World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler told reporters, “It’s a pretty simple golf course for the most part.”

In my opinion, this is another win for the Internationals. A “simple golf course” should level the playing field in this event as the group of Americans can be considered much stronger than the Internationals in ball striking, but a slight edge could be given to Weir’s squad around the green and putting.

Looking at the 24 players in the event, the Americans have four of the five best ball-strikers this year. However, the Internationals have six of the top nine players when combining the two main short game categories of strokes gained around the green and putting.

When it comes to match play, everyone knows that the person who makes the most putts will have the advantage, and if these international players can keep their putters hot for four days, this event should get tight on Sunday.

Mackenzie Hughes is a great example of how tough this International team could play this week. The Canadian is 24th of all 24 players in ball-striking in 2024, but he also is first of all 24 in around the green and putting stats. If a guy like Hughes can just keep up with his American counterparts, his ability to make putts and be a magician around the greens could frustrate even the best in the world.