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Setting The Pick – Best Bets In Transit
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All 16 teams have been in transit switching cities for Game 3 of their respective series.
A few of them have a legitimate chance to put the favourites on their heels, while some might as well empty out their suitcases for good.
Of the three series that are cued up for Thursday night, two might go the distance while the Oklahoma City Thunder sit at -50000 to advance.
No need to waste time, let’s dive right into my favourite prop for each game.
Karl-Anthony Towns over 25.5 points + assists (-106)
All the talk coming out of Game 2 was KAT going scoreless in the second-half as the Knicks gave up homecourt advantage.
Outside of their 21-0 collapse, Detroit has looked like the better team going toe-to-toe with New York.
The Knicks are still favoured to advance, but in order for that to happen, Towns needs to be significantly more involved in their gameplan.
It’s not a coincidence that New York had a 29 point drop off between games when KAT only put up 10.
In his first playoff run with New York, KAT’s usage rate has been shockingly low (15.0) compared to the regular season (26.5).
It’s going to be a combination of head coach, Tom Thibodeau, getting him schemed up better and Towns being more assertive finding his own offence.
Through the first two games, it can be argued that opportunity has been left on the table.
Tobias Harris, an undersized forward by comparison, has been KAT’s primary defender for over 65 percent of their possessions.
New York hasn’t exploited that and I’m betting that’ll change.
KAT is also the only starter shooting above 50 percent so far, going 15-for-25.
As stout as the Pistons defence has become, Towns averaged 24 points and 5 assists per game in three matchups during the regular season.
It’s not as if he’s been shut down by Detroit historically.
Coming off a loss, I think there’s room for New York’s offence to establish more balance.
Chet Holmgren 2+ threes (-120)
After missing three months due to a pelvic fracture, Holmgren has been cautiously ramping up into game form.
Since his return, OKC has gone 20-4 including these two routs against Memphis.
His minutes have gotten up to 28.8 a night over the final two months of the regular season.
What has also been fine-tuned ahead of the playoffs was his three-point shot.
In the final five games of the year, Holmgren went 10-for-21 (47.6 percent) from deep which has carried over against the Grizzlies.
He’s gone 6-for-12 thus far as Memphis has been willing to let him fire from three.
Since All-Star Weekend, the Grizz have allowed the seventh-most three-point attempts.
They’ve been generous to opposing power forwards.
Some example game logs for reference:
Anthony Davis, 2-for-7
Aaron Gordon, 2-for-7
Julius Randle, 5-for-10
Bam Adebayo, 2-for-4
With Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein sharing the floor as often as they have, Chet has been the one who’s camped out on the perimeter for floor spacing purposes.
Memphis hasn’t had many answers for OKC defensively, and I expect them to continue living with Holmgren shooting from beyond the arc.
Kawhi Leonard two-leg parlay, 20+ points and 4+ assists (-111)
Don’t deny what your eyes saw – the version of Kawhi in Game 2 was the same as the one who led Toronto to a championship.
If his shot is on the way it was, there simply is no stopping him.
Denver was throwing double and triple-teams on him, yet he still found his spots, elevating for jumper after jumper.
Modern NBA defences would encourage him to keep taking those shots, so part of Denver’s gameplan might be to dare him into an encore performance.
Going 15-for-19 from the field, Leonard’s 79 percent clip was the second-most efficient game of his playoff career (minimum 10 FGAs).
It’s obviously unrealistic to expect Leonard to shoot 10-for-11 in the mid-range again, but he’s clearly playing with a force and confidence that should have you encouraged.
In his post-game press conference, he acknowledged that he’s just grateful to be healthy and on the frontlines with his teammates.
I think he’s downplaying how explosive he’s been over the past month.
Leonard was aggressive right off the tip, dropping 12 points in the first quarter, the most he’s scored all season.
Take that as a sign for who LA wants in control offensively.
The Nuggets might have no choice but to send more help to trap Kawhi and that should open the door for him to rack up more dimes.
He’s sitting at 18 potential assists through two games (passes that led to a field-goal attempt), yet he only has seven assists registered.
Kawhi looks healthy and that should worry everyone in the league.