Setting The Pick – Cherry picking NBA Cup odds

It’s one week into the NBA Cup, and all we’ve gotten are whacky court designs. 

No fights, no outrageous outcomes, and no teams running up the score for now.  

However, fans were treated to some juicy upsets and nail-biting finishes. 

In addition to the Erik Spoelstra gaffe above, we were treated to Klay Thompson’s homecoming game against Golden State, arguably the game of the year thus far. 

The New York Knicks almost got upset by their crosstown trade partner in the Nets, while the Boston Celtics did let one slip away against an Atlanta Hawks team without Trae Young. 

Through two slates of the NBA Cup, there’s been lots of odds movement on FanDuel. 

I’ll dig into some of my favourite bets to consider. 

MEAT ON THE BONE FOR CLEVELAND

As it stands, Cleveland is still plus-money to win East Group C after opening at +220. 

They usurped Boston as the favourites for the group after the Celtics dropped their opener against Atlanta, a result almost nobody expected.

The Cavs kicked off the tournament with an 18-point win over Chicago to extend their winning streak to 14 games. 

I like this bet because Cleveland now has a double shot at winning the group. 

If they beat Boston straight up, they are nearly guaranteed winners. 

If they lose, there’s still a world where it could end up a three-way tie between them, Boston and Atlanta. 

In that scenario, point differential will be the tiebreaker, and Cleveland is currently in the driver's seat. 

The bonus for them – their last NBA Cup game comes against the Washington Wizards, a team destined for the worst record this season. We saw how teams maximized those opportunities during the final slate of last year’s tourney. 

One final note about this bet: the Cavs remain an unproven team regardless of their historic start. 

They’re looking to establish credibility as championship threats this season after multiple postseason disappointments over the last two years. 

BUCKS THE BEST OF THE WORST

East Group B is by far the ugliest of the six, with all five teams currently below .500. 

Detroit is priced to win the group ahead of Milwaukee, and I think that’s a mistake. 

The Bucks are great value at +185 to win the group on FanDuel. 

To Detroit’s credit, they’ve secured two wins over Miami and Toronto to sit atop the group for now. 

But with games against Indiana and Milwaukee, I disagree with them getting a +125 price. 

They’re simply not that good of a team, and their 18th-ranked net rating is arguably their ceiling. 

Turning to the Bucks, there’s no denying their start was as alarming as it gets. 

If you asked for hypothetical odds on them to sit second last in the league over the first 10 games, I bet it would’ve been near 100-to-1 or longer. 

Even though it’s been ugly, this is still a team led by former back-to-back MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo, one of the league’s five best players. 

I think it’s helpful that their NBA Cup games all come on the final three slates, giving them time to get organized. 

Damian Lillard remains out in concussion protocol, but I’m hopeful he’ll be available by next Friday. 

Indiana and Miami have both already lost NBA Cup games, while Milwaukee remains undefeated. 

Buy the dip on the Bucks. 

ROCKETS ON THE RISE

The Minnesota Timberwolves are the betting favourites to win West Group A even though they suffered a defeat at the hands of the lowly Trailblazers. 

If you’ve watched any of their games over the past two weeks, there are concerns regarding their offensive cohesion. 

The Wolves aren’t a well-oiled machine like they were last playoffs. 

On the other hand, Houston is piling up the wins and currently owns the best regular season record of the bunch at 9-4. 

No other team in the group sits more than a game above .500. 

I like Houston at +200 to win the group. 

The Rockets have earned impressive wins over Dallas, New York, and back-to-back victories against the Clippers who are in this group. 

Their plus-21-point differential gives them a huge leg up over their main threats.  

Sacramento sits minus-4, while Minnesota is minus-10 through two games. 

The Rockets own the league’s 6th-highest net rating, implying that their hot start is no fluke. 

Under second-year head coach Ime Udoka, Houston owns the league’s third-best defensive rating and have a respectable 13th-ranked offence. 

The Rockets are one of the deepest teams in the league and quietly have two darkhorse Sixth Man of the Year candidates in Amen Thompson (+3200) and Tari Eason (+5000). 

I think they fly under the radar because they don’t have one standout superstar. 

Not a single Rocket averages over 20.0 ppg but they have seven players in double-digit scoring. 

Their starting five combine for an average age of 24.6, one of the youngest in the league. 

This is another unproven team that needs the NBA Cup to establish credibility.