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Setting The Pick – Final call on player awards
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All eyes are on March Madness this week and with good reason.
But like any magician knows, the time to make your moves are when everyone’s eyes are diverted elsewhere.
With less than 15 percent of the NBA regular season remaining, a lot of funky things are happening.
Teams are blatantly benching starters and stars are being rested in preparation for the postseason.
From a watchability standpoint, the NCAA deserves the spotlight.
But if you’re hoping to stay sharp on the NBA front, there are two award races that might not seem all that interesting but are arguably mispriced.
One has experienced a severe correction this week while the other remains open for exploitation.
DPOY – Why’s Mobley favoured?
Victor Wembanyama opened the year as a -155 favourite to win Defensive Player of the Year and shortened to -2400 right before his season-ending blood clot condition was announced.
At that time, FanDuel only listed six other players to bet on assuming the award was wrapped up.
Then boom, pandemonium ensued as their traders scrambled to reprice the market.
Evan Mobley and Jaren Jackson Jr. were listed as +125 and +130 favourites with four other players being re-listed – Amen Thompson, Ivica Zubac, Rudy Gobert and Draymond Green.
Right after the news, I wrote in this column that week about my skepticism on those two frontrunners.
The same arguments then apply now - no DPOY winner in the last 20 years played for a defence ranked outside the Top 5.
Cleveland owns the NBA’s second-best record, but their defence ranks ninth.
It seems to me that Mobley’s pricing is based on historical reputation and not the current version of the Cavs in 2024-25.
NBC Sports’ Jay Croucher put out a great post on X comparing the advanced defensive metrics of those favoured to win DPOY.
Looking at those numbers or even the traditional steals and blocks, and you’ll note Mobley isn’t at the top of the list anywhere.
Amongst official leaders on NBA.com, he’s 112th (0.9) in steals and ninth in blocks (1.5).
All of this is to say – what is Mobley’s main argument for DPOY?
Burying the lead here, you might’ve missed it, but Draymond has been getting steamed up rapidly this week.
On Wednesday, I was on SportsCentre telling the story of his case.
That morning, Green was +850 to win DPOY. By 6:00pm, the number shrunk to +500.
Present day, FanDuel has him priced at +150.
So, where’s all this momentum coming from?
Since Jimmy Butler was acquired by Golden State, they’ve been scorching hot going 16-3 with the league’s second-best defensive rating (107.8).
While Butler gave them a much-needed defensive boost on the perimeter, Green has been lights out defensively grabbing 63 combined steals and blocks (second only behind Dyson Daniels).
At the moment, the Warriors still rank outside the Top 5 in season-long defensive rating but are only 0.7 points per 100 possessions out.
With 12 games left and Golden State still not guaranteed a playoff berth, Green and the Warriors will be motivated to keep their foot on the gas pedal and close out the season with positive momentum.
In what could possibly be their last championship run, I’m betting on Green to put everything on the line.
Clutch – Is Brunson done for the season?
Jalen Brunson became a -280 favourite for Clutch Player of the Year at the beginning of March after accumulating 29 clutch points over a three-game span.
New York has played six overtime games this season with Brunson heavily featured in them all.
If the season ended today, he’d have a compelling case to take home the award.
But as he currently sits at -125 on FanDuel, there’s reason to believe that number will only continue to drop.
On March 15th, ESPN’s Sham Charania reported that Brunson was expected to be out for at least two more weeks.
Then head coach, Tom Thibodeau, was quoted this week saying that “hopefully we get some games where he works his way back into it.”
Judging from those reports and comments, it seems Brunson’s regular season is down to a couple of games at most.
As it stands, he’s second in clutch points, third in clutch assists with a plus-29 net rating.
If we’re going to lean on past precedent for DPOY, we should apply the same thinking with Clutch.
What statistical similarities were there for the two players who previously won this award?
De’Aaron Fox, the inaugural winner, led the NBA in total clutch points by a 45-point margin while ranking 13th in assists.
Stephen Curry won it last season edging DeMar DeRozan by seven clutch points for the league lead. He impressively had 32 clutch-time three-pointers whereas the next closest only had 13.
As we can see, total clutch points seem to be the driver for Clutch Player of the Year.
So, who’s ahead of Brunson on that list currently?
Trae Young (priced at +220 on FanDuel).
Atlanta’s offensive engine is currently seven points clear of Brunson but is also first in clutch assists and three-pointers.
No previous winner has led the league in all three categories.
Given all their injuries and trades at the deadline, the current version of the Hawks is more reliant than ever on Young’s offensive production.
With Atlanta fighting for a divisional title and the top spot in the Play-In Tournament, they are expected to remain competitive fighting for every win possible.
Brunson’s ambiguous timetable for return should have you questioning why he’s favoured for Clutch.
If Young is leading both key clutch time categories and has 13 games remaining, how is Brunson expected to leapfrog him with potentially three or four games left?
Unless voters have a change of heart in Clutch Player criteria, this market is mispriced.