Setting The Pick – Game 1 instant reactions

Game 1s in the NBA playoffs can either take the wind out of your betting sails or breed hope for a seven-game series.

The Oklahoma City Thunder trounced the Memphis Grizzlies by the fifth-biggest winning margin of all-time (51 points).

All three double-digit favourites went on to cover, handedly winning their openers.

But the LA Clippers and Denver Nuggets gave us an overtime barnburner that lived up to the billing.

That series and the Los Angeles Lakers versus the Minnesota Timberwolves were the only two that saw the series underdogs steal the opening game.

Sometimes it can feel like a complete crapshoot guessing how the opening games will play out.

Fact is, playoff basketball is a different speed than the regular season.

Traditionally, Game 2s are the best ones to react as we’ve now had time to examine the Xs and Os from each team.

What adjustments will be made?

Which players look unstoppable?

Based on what we saw over the weekend, here are my favourite bets for Monday’s slate:

Russell Westbrook over 10.5 points (-130)

Hate him or love him, it doesn’t matter.

The current Nuggets coaching staff trusts him.

The former MVP closed out Saturday’s win, playing over Michael Porter Jr. in both overtime and the end of regulation.

With as limited as Denver’s three-point shooting has been, they still elected to go with Westbrook over MPJ’s range.

Westbrook wasn’t particularly efficient, shooting 5-of-17, but his plus-7 net rating was indicative of the impact he had compared to Porter Jr.’s minus-8.

Though not known as a knockdown shooter, Westy took them when open, and finished 2-of-6 from deep which Denver will take.

Much of what he did was around the rim, grabbing four offensive rebounds and keeping possessions alive.

He’s a very active cutter, which is critical for a savant like Nikola Jokic who has eyes in the back of his head.

Westbrook averaged 13.3 points per game on the season but more importantly is closing out games in this tightly contested series.

The minutes will be there, let’s see if the efficiency will follow.

James Harden over 7.5 first quarter points (+104)

The Beard opened with 15 first quarter points in Game 1.

His production matched how he and the Clippers have played in the final month of the regular season.

Norman Powell returned on March 16th bringing LA back to full strength, a period where they went 13-2.

In that stretch, Harden has led the first unit for the full first 12 minutes of every game.

He’s averaged 8.1 points per game across that span.

Even though Leonard has a higher usage and averaged more ppg than Harden, The Klaw’s production mostly came during the second and fourth quarters (9.0 ppg and 6.7 ppg).

It’s been this way since the All-Star Break – Harden gets the offence in flow early similar to how Luka Doncic did for the Mavericks.

LA’s strategy was on display in Game 1, they wanted Jokic involved in all the actions and hunted every shot possible near the rim.

They finished 76.2 percent at the rim, something I’m sure head coach Tyronn Lue wants them replicating.

The more Jokic has to work on the defensive end, the less he’ll have in the tank offensively.

The Harden and Ivica Zubac two-man game accounted for 23 of their 35 first quarter points.

Both players put pressure on Jokic to defend and Harden went a perfect 4-for-4 at the rim.

After getting a quick second foul seven minutes in, LA elected to keep him on the court.

That’s a very encouraging vote of confidence.

The plus-money price is generous against a defence that ranked 21st on the season and allowed the seventh-most points in the paint.

Mikal Bridges under 15.5 points (-118)

With this bet, there was one glaring observation that caught my attention – Bridges sat to begin the fourth quarter, the same span that saw the Knicks go on a 21-0 run.

He returned with two minutes to go in the game, but by that point the Knicks had flipped a 91-83 deficit to a 116-106 lead.

I’m not saying he’s a bad player, but when Cameron Payne was going off, Bridges was the starter head coach, Tom Thibodeau, thought best to keep sidelined.

After Jalen Brunson missed 15 games with an ankle injury, it was OG Anunoby who took the biggest leap, going from 16.5 ppg to 23.2 ppg during that span.

His usage has carried over even with New York at full strength; he was only second to Brunson in Game 1 with 18 field-goal attempts.

Anunoby’s defensive presence makes him a mainstay in Thibodeau’s lineups, playing more than anyone on either team.

His shot diet has eaten into Bridges’ production.

Additionally, New York was making a concerted effort to get shots at the rim, taking 42 percent of their attempts there.

That’d rank in the 100th percentile compared to all games this season.

Bridges got just 2 FGAs up at the rim.

We know Brunson is going to get the bulk of the usage, but I also thought New York missed an opportunity to use Karl-Anthony Towns more.

Jalen Duren wasn’t able to keep up especially when caught on the perimeter.

They likely get KAT more looks before resorting to Bridges.