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Setting The Pick – NBA Cup group stage primer
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Tonight’s NBA Cup slate officially takes us past the halfway mark of the group stage.
Silly season is upon us.
Over the first three nights, fans barely got any stat padding as few teams ran up the score.
Fast-forward to tonight. The group standings are formalizing, and teams would be wise to start thinking about point differential.
With so many scenarios up in the air, let’s break down what’s on the line group by group.
EAST GROUP A STANDINGS
ORL 2-0 (+37)
NYK 2-0 (+14)
BKN 1-1 (-1)
PHI 0-2 (-24)
CHA 0-2 (-26)
GROUP IMPLICATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT
Of all the groups active, tonight’s slate has the least implications for East Group A.
Philadelphia hosts Brooklyn and the result will only be of impact if the Nets win (who are 4-point underdogs).
Should that happen, they still need to beat Orlando for a chance at a three-way tie between the Knicks, Magic and themselves.
With Orlando’s point differential where it is, Brooklyn needs a sizeable victory over the Sixers to move the needle.
THE PICK: Null
EAST GROUP B STANDINGS
DET 2-0 (+4)
MIL 1-0 (+14)
MIA 1-1 (+13)
IND 0-1 (-13)
TOR 0-2 (-18)
GROUP IMPLICATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT
Indiana heads to Milwaukee as the lone game for this group tonight and the outcome will cause quite a shift in group winner pricing.
As it stands Detroit is 2-0 and favoured to win the group, sitting at +130 on FanDuel.
If the Bucks take care of business as 5.5-point favourites, they’ll leapfrog the Pistons.
If Indiana wins, it’ll create a three-way tie leaving Detroit as the lone undefeated team.
This group is by and far, the most underachieving of the six.
All five teams currently sit below .500 in the regular season.
Even though Milwaukee dropped 8 of their first 10 games, they are the most talented of the five.
I think they re-establish their dominance tonight.
Considering the recent form of Indiana, Milwaukee has a chance to hit them while they’re down.
The Bucks were a foul call away from being on a five-game winning streak.
If they win tonight they’ll be tied for the group lead with Detroit.
The deciding factor for East Group B will come down to their head-to-head matchup on Dec 3rd.
Not to discredit Detroit’s early season form, but Milwaukee will be favoured on the road in that one.
Buy the dip on the Bucks.
THE PICK: Milwaukee East Group B Winner, +175
EAST GROUP C STANDINGS
ATL 2-0 (+13)
BOS 1-1 (+2)
CLE 1-1 (+15)
WAS 0-1 (-12)
CHI 0-1 (-18)
GROUP IMPLICATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT
I believe this group has the highest probability of finishing as a three-way tie.
Even though they’re on the road in Chicago, Atlanta is priced as 1.5-point favourites. Should they win, it’ll get them to 3-0 with a final game against Cleveland.
Boston’s at 1-1 with games in hand versus Washington and Chicago.
Cleveland’s also at .500 with two more against Atlanta and Washington.
While there are several hypothetical scenarios to map out, assuming a three-way tie for first should get you thinking about point differential.
Boston can only control their own games, so this unassuming matchup versus the last-place Wizards might matter more than a normal one.
They are already priced as 16.5-point favourites but it’s in their best interest to run up the score.
Atlanta and Cleveland are ahead in point differential by 11 and 13 respectively.
The Cavs still have a game in hand against Washington for the final slate.
Boston needs to obliterate the Wizards.
Joe Mazzulla is a madman and just the type of head coach to rally his team for a blowout win.
Given their abilities from three-point range, the Celtics should be able to cover this spread if they care about the NBA Cup.
THE PICK: Boston -16.5
WEST GROUP A STANDINGS
HOU 1-0 (+21)
POR 1-0 (+14)
MIN 1-1 (-14)
SAC 0-1 (Even)
LAC 0-1 (-21)
GROUP IMPLICATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT
Portland’s upset win over Minnesota has opened the door for Houston to steal the group.
The Rockets host the Blazers as 13-point favourites and likely finish the night as the only undefeated team in West Group A.
Sacramento heads to LA with the loser of that game eliminated from contention.
By Saturday, there will be three 1-1 teams, all still capable of winning the group.
But as it stands on paper, Houston is rightfully favoured at +125.
They should go 2-0, they’ll have the largest point-differential and currently own the best record of the group at 11-5.
What gives me pause about their chances? Both their remaining games are on the road – one in Minnesota, one in Sacramento.
One cool wrinkle about this group, there’s a small probability that we get the first ever five-way tie in the NBA Cup.
As it stands, I’d back the Rockets who have a +8.4 net rating, well-above their groupmates.
THE PICK: Houston West Group A Winner, +125
WEST GROUP B STANDINGS
LAL 2-0 (+11)
SAS 1-1 (+1)
OKC 1-1 (+10)
PHX 1-1 (-8)
UTA 0-2 (-14)
GROUP IMPLICATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT
This is the only group of the six without a game on the schedule tonight.
While Los Angeles could wound up 3-0 by next Tuesday, Oklahoma City can win the group by simply beating the Lakers and Jazz.
In a single-game matchup, I’d back Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Western Conference favourites especially since Isaiah Hartenstein has returned.
If Phoenix takes down LA next week, that all but guarantees the group for OKC since they own the tiebreaker.
The Thunder would only need to win one game against San Antonio or Los Angeles in that scenario.
THE PICK: Oklahoma City West Group B Winner, +150
WEST GROUP C STANDINGS
GSW 2-0 (+8)
DAL 1-1 (+38)
NOR 1-1 (-34)
DEN 1-1 (+5)
MEM 0-2 (-17)
GROUP IMPLICATIONS FRIDAY NIGHT
The Warriors are in the driver's seat to win this group and are priced accordingly at -120 on FanDuel.
Their chances of locking it up hinges on two things (well, three).
First, Golden State can’t lose to the banged-up Pelicans as -10 favourites.
Second, if the Mavericks defeat the Nuggets tonight, the Warriors advance as Dallas and Golden State will be the only teams without two losses.
Due to their previous victory in Klay Thompson’s homecoming, the Warriors own the tiebreaker over Dallas.
Should Denver win tonight, the group will come down to them or Golden State in a winner-take-all on Dec 3rd.
The Nuggets' point differential won’t matter, as they only need a straight-up win over Golden State to move on.
That’d leave the Warriors in second at 3-1 but still in position to advance if they own the best point differential of all remaining West teams.
Right now, the Warriors don’t have enough cushion to guarantee a knockout berth.
A sizeable victory over New Orleans tonight provides a security blanket for them to advance.
THE PICK: Golden State -10