Setting The Pick – NBA Cup Preview

As is often the case in life, change can sometimes be met with resistance.  

When the In-Season Tournament was officially rolled out last season, it was received with skepticism by both media members and fans.  

People were confused by the format and thought it served no purpose.  

But when all was said and done, the tournament gave the NBA a significant shot in the arm during a period of the season that traditionally fell flat.  

For all the criticism the NBA gets on regular-season length, the NBA Cup offered a breath of fresh air leading up to Christmas.  

We got inspired play from the league’s younger teams given the added financial incentive and pride that came with winning.  

We also got to experience games that were impacted by point differential, something that had never been a factor in previous seasons.  

With the tournament commencing on Tuesday, November 12th, I’ll go over two key learnings from last year and offer two bets to consider for this year’s NBA Cup. 

ONE LOSS DOES NOT EQUAL DEATH 

During the inaugural year of the NBA Cup, fans were unfamiliar with the format and FanDuel’s traders were as well.  

There was no precedent to work off of and pricing this tournament was like the Wild West.  

The best example of this confusion came during the group stage.  

Jalen Brunson came into the tournament as New York’s star and was 37-to-1 to win In-Season Tournament MVP.  

After losing their opening game to Milwaukee, his price skyrocketed to 95-to-1 as the traders all but assumed the Knicks were eliminated.  

Instead, New York won their next three IST games and ended with the highest point differential amongst the other 3-1 teams out East.  

Even though they lost in the knockout stage, having a 95-to-1 ticket on one of the eight final teams was good value.  

Ultimately, we learnt that going undefeated wasn’t necessary to win a group. 

The Celtics and Pelicans both won theirs with a 3-1 record.  

The wildcard offered an additional out for teams that dropped a game but could run up the score. 

POINT DIFFERENTIAL IMPACT 

The final slate of the group stage was the most fascinating night of the entire tournament for bettors.  

Multiple teams were setup to finish 3-1 and secure a knockout berth if their point differential was high enough. 

What that led to was something we’ve never experienced during the NBA regular-season – teams were intentionally running up the score even with the game well out of hand.  

In East Group C prior to the final slate, Orlando had already wrapped up the round robin stage with a 3-1 record and a plus-22 point differential.  

They sat atop the group comfortably.  

Boston was at 2-1 with a point differential of 0 and one game to spare.  

Prior to the final night, they had the luxury of knowing that a win by at least 23 points was required to win East Group C.  

That information played a major factor in their game.  

Up against Chicago, they got up by 29 points heading to the fourth. 

If it were a normal NBA game, Boston’s starters would never have stepped onto the court in the final quarter.  

Instead, Jayson Tatum continued playing for all but two minutes of the final frame to ensure they maintained a 23-point win. 

Prior to that game, fans and analysts alike weren’t sure if Boston would approach the game with the point differential in mind.  

The line closed at -12.5 ahead of tip-off.  

In hindsight, had bettors known the Celtics would play not just to win the game, but win the group, that line would have been the biggest smash spot of the year.  

Boston wound up winning by 27 points.  

This season, the final group stage slate goes down on December 3rd.  

Look out for extreme outcomes that night and a chance to take some alternative spreads.  

CLEVELAND COMING IN HOT 

The Cavs were the last team to remain undefeated in the NBA with a statement win in Madison Square Garden and back-to-back victories over division rivals, Milwaukee.  

New head coach, Kenny Atkinson, has gotten a lot of credit for their success this year.  

He’s gotten Cleveland playing at a faster pace going from 23rd to 12th year-over-year. 

Traditionally regarded as a defence-first team, their offence has catapulted under Atkinson going from the 16th-best offensive rating in 2023-24 to No. 1 this year.  

FanDuel has cut their price in half to win the NBA Cup going from 17-to-1 to +850, the 7th-shortest option down to the 3rd-shortest. 

With several other title contenders assimilating new teammates early on, Cleveland has the luxury of continuity in these opening months.  

Donovan Mitchell is in his third season with the Cavs and has nullified any roster concerned with his contract extension.  

The team is essentially the exact same as last year.  

They’ve been winning games in convincing fashion which has led to their starters averaging below 31.0 minutes a night.  

One of their biggest challengers lies in the defending champs (who are in the same group), but with Kristaps Porzingis sidelined and the Celtics likely focused on June, Cleveland might be more motivated to take down the NBA Cup than them. 

Also take into consideration the poor form of the other East contenders -  Philadelphia, New York and Milwaukee - who’ve all have struggled out of the gate.  

This might be a smart way to capitalize on Cleveland’s high standing. 

NEW YORK BEING GIFTED EAST GROUP A 

Sometimes luck happens to fall on your side.  

The Knicks have been dealt a favourable hand for the upcoming group stage.  

New York opened the season as +140 favourites to win East Group A but have moved to -120.  

The 76ers were +175 but have slid to +320 after their slow start. They currently sit last in the East (worse than the Raptors).  

Joel Embiid has yet to take the floor and now Tyrese Maxey is due to miss multiple weeks with a hamstring injury.  

Orlando was the third choice to win this group at +280 but now sit at +440 with rising star, Paolo Banchero, out until December.   

Charlotte and Brooklyn round out this group and while they’re not to be discounted, they’re simply not in the same class as New York.  

Obviously, there’s a world where the Knicks don’t figure things out or get dealt some bad injury luck in the near future.  

But I would’ve expected the price to shorten further given the status of Philly and Orlando.  

Knicks to win East Group A at -120 still feels like value.