Setting The Pick – NBA Playoffs betting preview

Goodbye silly season, hello playoff basketball!

Six series have been determined and five of them could go down to the wire.

The seeding gods were generous to NBA fans setting up several entertaining matchups that are deserving of popcorn.

While Oklahoma City and Cleveland await their opponents, let’s dive right into the other series.

In each section, I’ll cover a series prediction, best bet, and longshot worth considering.

[2] Houston Rockets vs. [7] Golden State Warriors

Series Prediction – Warriors in 6

Best Bet – Warriors -1.5 (+108)

Favourite Longshot – Draymond Green Most Total Assists (+480)

The Warriors own the best defensive rating since the All-Star Break with Jimmy Butler.

The Rockets were Top 5 for the regular season.

That’s essentially the story of this series.

Two teams that are defensive juggernauts who do it in very different ways.

The Warriors are the wily veteran team anchored by two Hall of Famers who are the sharpest minds in the game.

Houston is one of the most athletic young squads in the playoffs with multiple players able to smother Stephen Curry.

As successful of a season as the Rockets had since finishing outside the play-in tournament last year, I don’t think they can match up with the experience of this Golden State team.

Especially one with Playoff Jimmy.

Whether you side with his antics or not in Miami, his resume as a playoff winner speaks for itself.

Outside of Kevin Durant, Curry has never had as complete of an offensive teammate as Butler and his impact was felt in that play-in victory over Memphis.

When clutch time arrives, I worry about Houston’s inconsistent scoring.

They collectively shot 38.1 percent in clutch time this year. That’s dead last in the NBA.

Moving to my dart throw, the emergence of Amen Thompson has chipped into Fred VanVleet’s role as their primary playmaker.

That should open the door for Draymond to end up with the most assists in this series.

Even though he averaged less than Butler and Curry post All-Star Break, he’s been Golden State’s assist leader in 5-of-7 playoffs since their first championship.

Houston will be all over Butler and Curry. Green will be required to step up and orchestrate the offence like he did versus the Grizzlies.

[3] Los Angeles Lakers vs. [6] Minnesota Timberwolves

Series Prediction – Lakers in 7

Best Bet – Luka Doncic Most Total Assists (-140)

Favourite Longshot – MIN Game 1 / LAL Series Parlay (+410)

The Lakers roster as constructed isn’t perfect by any means, but the combination of LeBron James and Luka Doncic in a seven-game series is simply a duo I wouldn’t bet against.

Minnesota has been the hotter team of the two going 17-4 since the return of Julius Randle.

Anthony Edwards wrapped the season with the most three-pointers made.

I think the Wolves could come out and immediately steal Game 1 to flip the series.

But with each additional game, I expect the Lakers to keep gaining strength.

Doncic has only logged 28 games with Los Angeles, 23 with LeBron.

It’s fair to say they are nowhere near fully formed.

The Wolves will certainly have an advantage on the glass and could bully-ball their way into a significant possession surplus versus LA.

But just like the Warriors, I trust in James and Doncic more as individual shotmakers to deliver when the going gets tough.

[4] Denver Nuggets vs. [5] Los Angeles Clippers

Series Prediction – Clippers in 6

Best Bet – DEN vs. LAC o5.5 Total Games (-215)

Favourite Longshot – LAC 4-2 Correct Score (+410)

A chalky best bet, but I’m incredibly confident this will be the tightest matchup of all eight.

No other series has seen the opening favourite flip to underdogs.

The steam has been flying in on the LA Clippers as they sit at -118 at the time of writing to win the series.

It’s commonly stated that the team with the best player typically wins the series.

Nikola Jokic is the world’s best player, no one is denying that.

He alone could take down this Clippers team. The Ringer’s Zach Lowe loves to gush about his problem-solving abilities with whatever defence comes his way.

But Canadian Jamal Murray has been and always is the x-factor for this Nuggets squad.

He displayed flashes of brilliance right around the trade deadline during a nine-game win streak, averaging 27.1 points on 55.7 percent shooting, 44.2 from three and 90.3 from the line.

That’s the window where he dropped a career-high 55 points on Portland.

Problem for Denver? Murray suffered a hamstring injury which he returned from just two games ago.

They also broke the record for the latest firing of a head coach as a playoff bound team.

Similar to Minnesota, the Clippers are hot, owning the fourth-best net rating since All-Star Weekend.

They currently have a version of Kawhi Leonard reminiscent of his Raptors championship run.

He’s shot 51.5 percent from the field, 43.7 from three, and 80.9 from the line since the break.

But even more important? He’s shown an ability to log heavy minutes, playing 47 in their overtime win against Golden State to clinch the 5^th seed.

The Clippers ended the year with the third-best defensive rating and have the personnel to stand up to The Joker. 

[2] Boston Celtics vs. [7] Orlando Magic

Series Prediction – Celtics in 5

Best Bet – Magic Series Spread +3.5 (-158)

Favourite Longshot – Payton Pritchard Most Total Threes (+1400)

The Celtics sit at -8000 to win the series heading into Game 1.

Not a lot of analysis is needed here.

Do I agree it’s that lopsided? No.

But I have zero confidence in betting Orlando at +2200 to win the series.

To the Magic’s credit, they have been defensive juggernauts, ending No. 2 on the year behind OKC.

Their defence also matches well with Boston’s offensive strategy – they allow the fewest three-point attempts in the NBA (10 percent less than the next closest team).

Boston has displayed a track-record of playing with their food against inferior opponents.

Their regular season proves it out as well, losing several games to sub .500 teams.

Given the Celtics offence, they could find themselves susceptible to poor shooting nights and let a game slip away against a hungry Magic team.

But in the end, the defending champs are in a different tier and are unlikely to be tested.

[3] New York Knicks vs. [6] Detroit Pistons

Series Prediction – Knicks in 6

Best Bet – Cade Cunningham Most Total Assists (-170)

Favourite Longshot – OG Anunoby Most Total Threes (+1800)

The Pistons have been one of the feel-good stories of the season going from a league-worst 14 wins (plus a 28-game losing streak) to a 6^th seed one year later.

Now that they’ve arrived though, I think they run into a Knicks team that is essentially equal or better at every position.

Head coach Tom Thibodeau is famous for running his players into the ground.

In the playoffs, extended minutes shouldn’t be an issue especially in the first round where there are larger gaps in between games.

To Cunningham’s credit though, I believe him and Jalen Brunson are in the same tier as playmakers.

With the offensive burden he shoulders, Cunningham sets up to have an edge in dimes.

Detroit’s franchise player ended with 9.1 apg on the season, fourth-best in the NBA and almost a full two assists per game more than Brunson.

As you go down the Pistons’ lineup, the only true facilitator outside of Cade is Dennis Schroder.

Everyone else depends on Cade’s passing to get their offence.

All five of New York’s starters have the ability to get their own shots, especially when faced with a mismatch.

When all’s said and done, I expect the offensive firepower of the Knicks to overmatch Detroit’s improvement as a defensive-minded team.

[4] Indiana Pacers vs. [5] Milwaukee Bucks

Series Prediction – Bucks in 6

Best Bet – Bucks series winner (+140)

Favourite Longshot – Gary Trent Jr. Most Total Threes (+600)

At the time of writing, Damian Lillard has been cleared of his deep vein thrombosis and is no longer on blood-thinning medication, as per ESPN’s Shams Charania.

The optimism stemming from that news has shortened Milwaukee from +180 to +140 on FanDuel to win the series.

Milwaukee’s official X account also noted that he’s been cleared for full basketball activity.

Prior to this news, I already liked the Bucks.

This announcement just puts it over the moon.

While Indiana has been 20-9 post-ASW, the Bucks have been equally hot, winning eight straight games to wrap the year.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is playing at MVP-levels showcasing an ability to handle the playmaking burden in Lillard’s absence.

Since Lillard’s diagnosis, Giannis has ballooned to 8.6 apg up from 6.0 in the games prior.

The other shot in the arm Milwaukee got was the return of Bobby Portis, coming back from a 25-game suspension for violating the NBA’s anti-drug program.

Given Milwaukee’s championship pedigree, I find myself struggling to go against a proven winner in Giannis, who’s peaking just as the postseason begins.

I also love the fact they won the season series 3-1 and have history to atone for against their division rivals.

Of all series, this is the only underdog I’m comfortable backing.