Setting The Pick – Season Award Longshots

The NBA hands out seven season-long player awards every year and often times, the books have the winner figured out before November arrives.  

Last year, Tyrese Maxey opened with back-to-back 30-point performances and instantly became the favourite for Most Improved Player.  

Rudy Gobert had six players at shorter odds than him for Defensive Player of the Year prior to Opening Night. By November, his number moved from +2000 to +550 and never let up.  

Of the seven awards, three of them had a favourite go end-to-end.  

Nikola Jokic was widely expected to win his third MVP trophy after Denver won the chip and he delivered.  

This is the time to get your awards predictions penciled in.  

While you can peg the chalk options to simply come through, sitting on a -155 ticket for seven months isn’t particularly exciting.  

I want to run through my best longshots for each award that deserve our attention.  

MOST VALUABLE PLAYER - JAYSON TATUM (+1300) 

Prior to last year, Luka Doncic opened as the preseason MVP favourite for three straight seasons.  

This year, he’s back on top after leading Dallas to the NBA Finals. 

Winning was always what held him back, but in his first full season with his new teammates, his case is justified.  

So if not chalk, then who?  

How about the best player on the best team?  

Tatum gets a disproportionate amount of hate from both fans and media members.  

Even though he’s Boston’s best player and was their statistical leader in both the Conference and NBA Finals, voters elected to hand Jaylen Brown the Larry Bird and Bill Russell trophies.  

He’s coming off a summer where Team USA coach, Steve Kerr, had him benched for the majority of their gold medal run.  

He opened at +2800 after the championship and has seen his price cut in half.  

It’s not normal for a defending champ to come in with the level of motivation Tatum has, but everything he’s said during the offseason suggests he’ll be playing with intention.  

In the NBA’s GM survey, 83 per cent predicted Boston to repeat.  

If Tatum leads the Celtics to another 60-win season, one where Kristaps Porzingis will be sidelined until 2025, their track record of winning will give him a solid case come April. 

ROOKIE OF THE YEAR - ZACCHARIE RISACHER (+700) 

Canadian Zach Edey currently sits at +290 on FanDuel to win ROTY.  

It wasn’t long ago that the books priced him at +1900 just to be drafted in the lottery.  

The buzz on him is warranted considering that he’s locked in as the Grizzlies’s starting centre.  

But if not chalk, then who? 

How about the No.1 overall pick who everyone seems to be down on?  

For as underwhelming of a draft class 2024 has been, it’s eerie to see how little attention Risacher has garnered coming into the year.  

He certainly doesn’t have the ceiling like previous No. 1 picks such as Victor Wembanyama or Zion Williamson.  

But if you watch his game tape, he’s a very mature player who should fit into head coach, Quin Snyder’s system well.  

The knock on him was his shooting touch which still might be a work in progress. So far in preseason, he’s shot 60 per cent from the field and 44 per cent from deep.  

Scoring has traditionally been a major factor in the voting for this award.  

Of the past 20 winners, Malcolm Brogdon (a 36th-overall pick) was the only one to average below 15.0 ppg.  

Risacher has a path to hitting that milestone and will also get a bump if he’s a factor in Atlanta overachieving.  

Their win total is set at 36.5 games and he’ll likely get credit if they end up .500 or above.  

DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR – CHET HOLMGREN (+1200) 

In the past, DPOY was an award that had wiggle room during the winter months of the season.  

For example, in January 2022, Marcus Smart sat around 200-to-1 before eventually winning the award. 

Well thanks to Victor Wembanyama who’s currently -155, this award is likely unbettable for years to come. 

So if not chalk, then who?  

I’d take a swing at Chet Holmgren who’s +1200 heading into the year.  

Two things have to happen for this to come through.  

Wemby has to fall below the 65-game minimum 

OKC has to overachieve on their win total with a Top-3 defence 

For the past 10-15 years, the DPOY anchored a defence that was Top-3 in the league or was a Top-3 seeded team.  

Wemby is a generational talent and will be the one to break that mold.  

Should something happen, Holmgren is my best safety blanket option. 

By all accounts, OKC is expected to finish atop the West like they did last year.  

They ended 2023-24 with the fourth-best defensive rating.  

This season, they added two plus-defenders in Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein while also trading away Josh Giddey who wasn’t defensively sound.  

The growth for OKC this season will come on the defensive end and Holmgren will garner the bulk of the credit if they show improvement. 

MOST IMPROVED PLAYER – IMMANUEL QUICKLEY (+2500) 

Wemby is listed as a favourite for both DPOY and MIP (+650). He’ll have all the buzz in his second NBA season. 

Even though he’s a mold breaker, it must be pointed out that MIP has never been won by a first-overall pick. 

This award is traditionally reserved for breakout players who leap into stardom.  

So if not chalk, then who?  
 
Give me IQ who enters this season as Toronto’s floor general in his first full-time starting gig.  

Over the first three seasons of his career, Quickley averaged 12.7 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 3.1 apg in 24.2 mpg.  

He wrapped up 2023-24 at 17.0 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 4.9 apg with his time split between New York and Toronto.  

Considering his previous role as New York’s microwave scoring option off the bench, IQ has a proven track-record as a bucket getter.  

The growth for him will come as a playmaker.  

He’s the only true floor general on this squad with backups, Davion Mitchell and Jamal Shead, more suited for defensive assignments.  

The front office has been explicit about this being a rebuilding year and Quickley should have lots of runway for growth. 

Looking at the previous five winners of MIP, three of them won under completely new roles. 

Brandon Ingram moved from LA to New Orleans and made his first and only All-Star team.  

Lauri Markkanen increased his scoring by 10 ppg in Utah after the Donovan Mitchell blockbuster.  

Maxey stepped into the lead PG role due to James Harden’s holdout with Philly.  

None of the other Top-10 options will experience as big of a jump in minutes and usage as IQ this year. 

SIXTH MAN OF THE YEAR – MILES MCBRIDE (+2500) 

As it stands, Malik Monk is the favourite at +550 after narrowly losing out to Naz Reid last season.  

Those two come into 2024-25 as the top choices on FanDuel but 6MOY is typically an award that doesn’t get sorted out right away.  

Reid was 140-to-1 last December and was still +1500 for the award with a month left in the season.  

There’s room for debate throughout the season. 

So if not chalk, then who?  

Consider New York’s microwave scoring option off the bench, Deuce McBride. 

One criterion that’s held true for this award – the winner typically plays for a championship contender.  

The previous five winners all helped their squads to a 3rd-seed or better. 

This year, New York is all-in. 

Once touted for their deep roster, the Knicks have pushed their chips in with three major trades that have left their bench significantly thinner.  

Karl-Anthony Towns, Mikal Bridges and OG Anunoby are in, but five rotation players were sent off in the opposite direction. 

The Knicks also couldn’t retain Hartenstein in free agency and will be without Mitchell Robinson for the first three months of the season.  

That leaves New York with few options off the bench.  

McBride showed flashes of scoring potential during their playoff run last year averaging 11.0 ppg. 

He fits the mold of previous 6MOY winners like Jordan Clarkson or Lou Williams.  

What also helps his case is the fragility of the starting five.  

Anunoby and KAT have both averaged 27 missed games over the previous three seasons.  

Head coach Tom Thibodeau will be short-staffed to open the year left with bench alternatives such as Precious Achiuwa and Cam Payne. 

Expect McBride to get a ton of minutes. Fingers crossed he brings the scoring. 

COACH OF THE YEAR – IME UDOKA (+850) 

As it stands, coach Thibs is favoured to win his third COTY award at +700.  

I simply don’t see that happening unless New York wins 60+ games.  

So if not chalk, then who?  

Not necessarily a longshot, but I’m very bullish on Udoka, who’s the second choice for COTY.  

This award traditionally has nothing to do with the quality of the coach. It’s more of a reflection on their team’s success. 

Last year’s finalists were Mark Daigneault, Jamahl Mosley, and Chris Finch.  

All three finished with the highest number of wins above their preseason win total. 

Houston’s win total currently sits at 42.5 putting them in a tie with the Lakers for the 10th seed.  

The Rockets might shock the world this season and end up with a Top-6 playoff berth.  

Everyone on Houston is back for 2024-25 with two new additions in rookie Reed Sheppard and veteran Steven Adams.  

Their 10-man rotation is arguably Top-5 in the NBA littered with several capable young players vying for playing time.  

Houston’s depth and youth are advantages better suited for regular season success versus the playoffs.  

When other teams are load managing their stars, Udoka will have the luxury of playing his best five players at all times.  

I’m expecting more organic growth from their young core while improving on their defensive identity built last year in Udoka’s inaugural season.  

If they get up to 50 wins, Udoka will be a finalist.  

CLUTCH PLAYER OF THE YEAR – NIKOLA JOKIC (+2500) 

Last year’s winner, Stephen Curry, opens the year in a four-way tie as the favourite at +1100.  

But this award has been a roller coaster ever since being introduced.  

So if not chalk, then who? 

This season, Jokic might be relied upon more than ever during clutch time.  

The general expectation is that Denver will be worse off this year versus last.  

If they’re losing more games, it likely means the Nuggets will be involved in fewer blowouts.  

This award is tricky for two reasons: 

The winner criteria remains undefined  

This award doesn’t reward the best player in clutch time – it rewards the player who’s involved in those moments most often  

In the two-year existence of the award, both winners led the NBA in total points scored during clutch time.  

But how does one accurately predict expected minutes in those scenarios? How can you project total number of overtime games played? 

I’m leaning into Jokic primarily because he’s best player in the world.  
 
There’s no one else more reliable with the ball in a one possession situation than the three-time MVP.  

Last season, he finished fourth in total clutch time points. He wrapped with 129 while Curry had 189.  

Two other players in the Top-5 were DeMar DeRozan and 2023 winner, De’Aaron Fox.  

Those two are now teammates and should cannibalize each other.  

That leaves Curry and Damian Lillard who rightfully are in the mix.  

But in a year where Denver is blowing out fewer teams and Jamal Murray seems to be out of form, Jokic could be featured in clutch time more than usual.  

Give me the world’s best player at a price outside the Top-10.