Setting The Pick – Superstar Shuffle

The NBA has gotten a quality stretch of games lately, showcasing the best of what the league has to offer.

The Cleveland Cavaliers and Oklahoma City Thunder clashed in a battle of the best offences and defences, each on 10 and 15-game winning streaks respectively.

The Thunder and Celtics had a showdown last weekend in a potential NBA Finals preview between the two betting favourites on FanDuel.

Victor Wembanyama and Nikola Jokic played in back-to-back games displaying both the present and the future of the league.

It’s been great entertainment watching the NBA’s best compete night in, night out but the absences of key players has quietly been a story.

Former MVPs are struggling to get on the court, superstars are being suspended, and freak injuries have taken away promising young stars off the court.

I’ll dive into five notable situations and the subsequent betting opportunities that are attached.

Banchero is back

34 games.

That’s how long it’s been since Paolo Banchero succumbed to a freak oblique injury.

You’d think with an absence of that length, Orlando would have plummeted.

Somehow they’re the fourth-seed at 22-17.

His return couldn’t come at a better time as the Magic are pressing without Franz Wagner and Jalen Suggs also sidelined.

Defence has carried them all season, but this offence has been on life support, ranking second-last in offensive rating since the NBA Cup.

With Banchero’s first game back against the Bucks, it’s not exactly a plus-matchup.

Considering Milwaukee’s defence of late and the ambiguity of Banchero’s minutes, I don’t have a strong lean on his props.

One thing I am confident in though, he will have immense gravity on the court leading to better looks for his teammates.

Milwaukee continues to pack the paint well but allows teams to get shots up from beyond the arc.

While Cole Anthony will start at point guard, he’s not their primary ballhandler.

When Banchero is in, the ball is in his hands.

I expect less playmaking from Anthony tonight and a few extra catch-and-shoot opportunities as Milwaukee focuses on Orlando’s star.

His price is inching towards even money on FanDuel making it that much more enticing.

The Pick: Anthony over 1.5 threes (-104)

Bye bye Butler

The Miami situation is simply ugly.

Jimmy Butler has burnt yet another bridge making it four since his time in Chicago.

Pat Riley and the Heat management continue their power struggle against former players seemingly needing to prove, they’re bigger than the stars.

I don’t care about the resolution. I want to sort out how to capitalize on the vacated minutes.

The two clear cut winners of this situation have been Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Nikola Jovic.

Here are their stat comparisons for reference:

Jaquez season-long averages:

• 23.2 mins, 9.5 pts, 4.8 reb, 2.7 ast

Jaquez last four games:

• 36.1 mins, 16.8 pts, 6.5 reb, 5.5 ast

Jovic season-long averages:

• 21.7 mins, 9.5 pts, 3.7 reb, 2.1 ast

Jovic last four games:

• 26.4 mins, 15.0 pts, 4.0 reb, 3.0 ast

Jovic started the first game in Butler’s absence but was subsequently replaced by Jaquez the last three games.

He now leads the team in minutes since the suspension began.

Of all the stats that pop off the page, I’m looking at his assists for their next game against Portland, the second-worst defence since December.

The Blazers have been league-worst in fastbreak points allowed and eighth worst in points in the paint.

Playing 13 more minutes over this stretch, Jaquez has only taken three more shots a night.

His potential assists have skyrocketed though, doubling from 4.9 to 9.5 over these four games.

No one on the team is creating more points off of assists than him.

The Pick: Jaquez over assists vs. POR

Kawhi will be back too

First and foremost, I want to acknowledge the devastation residents in Los Angeles are enduring at the moment.

It’s a tragedy plain and simple.

Thousands have lost their homes, people have died, and it’s not a situation that should be taken lightly whatsoever.

Kawhi Leonard is a basketball player but a human being first.

I hope his family is able to recover from this ordeal.

After missing LA’s first 34 games (coincidentally the same number as Banchero), Leonard got back out there averaging 20 minutes over two games.

Like Banchero, predicting his health and minutes will essentially be a blind guess.

But as my fellow Basketball Island podmate, Fabio Lucarini pointed out, almost half of Leonard’s shot attempts have come from deep so far.

For a guy who’s likely never going to return to peak physical form, it’s easy to see why he’s camping out beyond the arc.

Norman Powell has been marvelous with Leonard and Paul George gone, keeping the Clippers’ offence afloat even when James Harden has struggled.

This was a team that came into the season with a 35.5 win total and currently sit three games above .500.

When they return, betting Kawhi to hit 2+ threes is how to capitalize.

The Pick: Leonard over threes upon return

Middleton permanently mid?

Coming off two surgeries on each ankle, Middleton faces dire odds to replicate his past success.

His 2024-25 season only began a month ago and he spent the first five games off the bench ramping up.

After the NBA Cup, he re-entered the starting lineup for seven games but was eventually sent back to the bench by head coach Doc Rivers.

During those seven starts, the Bucks went through one of their ugliest stretches losing to Chicago, Portland and Brooklyn twice.

The results don’t favour Middleton as Milwaukee put together two blowouts over Toronto and San Antonio since.

With Middleton starting, too many of their shots came from the mid-range.

Giannis Antetokounmpo has been best when he’s had space to attack and kick it out after opponents collapse on him.

Giannis and Damian Lillard combined with shooters seems to be their winning formula.

Up against Orlando tonight, I don’t like this spot for Middleton.

His shooting splits as a starter versus off the bench are jarring:

Starter – 51.2 FG%, 45.5 3PT%, 90.0 FT%

Bench – 30.4 FG%, 26.3 3PT%, 81.0 FT%

The bar is really low from FanDuel but I still think his minutes will be suppressed against one of the best defences in the NBA.

The Pick: Middleton under 10.5 points (-120)

Benched Beal

For all the noise surrounding Beal’s benching, the statistical drop off has been minimal.

Starting – 33.4 mins, 17.8 pts, 3.7 reb, 3.1 ast

Bench – 31.3 mins, 20.0 pts, 3.3 reb, 4.0 ast

After a hot start to the season, Phoenix’s big-three is struggling to co-exist.

On the year, the Suns own a -1.9 net rating over 36 games.

When Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal have shared the court, they’ve gone -32 in 16 games.

The takeaway? This isn’t on the team’s depth.

Phoenix hasn’t been good on either side of the ball ranking 20^th on offence and 25^th in defence since the NBA Cup.

Beal coming off the bench is an expensive solution to their problem, but if it leads to wins, he promised not to be a ‘distraction’.

If Beal’s minutes remain similar to these first three games, there’s a world when his production remains comparable.

Off the bench, he won’t be lined up against opposing starters. He also won’t be fighting for usage with one of Durant and Booker likely resting.

Considering Utah is their next game, he’s in a very good spot to succeed.

The Pick: Beal over points and assists vs. UTA