Setting The Pick – Tanks in motion­

If you’re a Toronto Raptors' fan convinced that tanking is the way, strap in – wins might be on the horizon.

Toronto has reeled off four wins over their last five games, all against opponents competing for the playoffs.

Unfortunately, the team is caught in no man’s land right now.

During previous press conferences, Toronto's staff has alluded to their tanking intentions.

At the same time, the Raptors have several veteran players on expiring contracts that could potentially be converted into future draft capital.

Those players won’t garner trade interest if they’re not on the court. They’ll remain put unless they’re showcased properly.

With seven games between now and the trade deadline, Toronto’s best stretch of the year might be happening before our eyes.

They’re not alone in this exercise though as several other teams are also jockeying for a bottom three spot in the standings.

Here are three teams I’m monitoring as we approach the trade deadline on February 6th.

Toronto Raptors auditioning

The correlation is undeniable.

During this five-game stretch, Toronto’s four most discussed trade candidates have been impacting winning – Bruce Brown, Chris Boucher, Davion Mitchell, and Kelly Olynyk.

The team owns a +3.4 net rating after sitting at -8.1 in the 39 games prior.

Looking at the most recent game’s box score - Boucher, Brown and Olynyk accounted for 68 per cent of the minutes off the bench.

This is not the time for development.

As a result, we’re seeing a more balanced scoring split between the starters and bench players.

With the exception of Boucher – who’s averaging one minute per game less – all three other veterans have seen their minutes rise.

Most of Toronto’s rookies have been sent to the G-League and the rotations have tightened up.

There are ultimately two ways I’d capitalize on this when Toronto completes their ‘baseball series’ against Atlanta.

I’d be monitoring the spread and even consider the moneyline on Toronto if the pricing is favourable.

Additionally, I’d wait until closer to tip-off when FanDuel releases player props for the bench unit.

There should be opportunities to bet overs for the players on their way out.

The Pick: Brown over points, Olynyk and Mitchell over assists

Washed Wizards

The Wiz are in a class of their own with FanDuel listing them at a 13.5 win total (heavily juiced to the under).

The next closest team is Utah, who’s at 19.5.

Good job Washington - you’ve locked up those lottery balls.

With nothing to compete for, the Wizards continue to lean on their youth.

They have three players in their starting lineup younger than 21; no other team in the NBA has more than one.

Alexandre Sarr, Bub Carrington, and Bilal Coulibaly are all viewed are core building blocks for their future.

The one starter who isn’t?

Kyle Kuzma.

While he has three years remaining on his contact, it’s on a declining scale making it increasingly team friendly as the cap continues to go up.

At 29, his timeline simply doesn’t match well with the rookies and sophomores.

The team would be smart to empower their younger players, and that’d come at Kuzma’s expense.

The former-NBA Champ’s season has been split by a 12-game absence, but even though his minutes remain the same, his usage has taken a decline since rejoining the lineup.

He’s gone from 15.1 field-goal attempts a game to 11.9 in January.

He continues to shoot inefficiently going 41.6 percent from the field, 24.1 percent from deep, and 51.2 percent from the line.

Last night against the Clippers, his point prop was set at 15.5 and went well under with seven.

That line caught my eye as they faced one of the hottest defences in the NBA.

He also failed to score 16 points in 9-of-13 games.

The Wizards are prioritizing their younger players. Fade all their disposable guys.

The Pick: Kuzma under points vs. Phoenix

The no quit New Orleans

There’s one team amongst the bottom-feeders that seems intent on competing – the New Orleans Pelicans.

They’ve had a season from hell with all their injuries, but given the compilation of talent on their roster, it’s nearly impossible to count on them to lose at the pace these other tanking teams will.

CJ McCollum and Dejounte Murray are an average at worst backcourt while Trey Murphy is one of the more explosive scoring wings in the NBA.

As their star players return from injury, they continue to have one glaring hole which doesn’t look like it’ll be solved – frontcourt depth.

20-year-old rookie, Yves Missi, has been thrusted into the starting lineup after New Orleans rid themselves of Jonas Valanciunas and Larry Nance Jr. the season prior.

That’s resulted in New Orleans sitting at 28th in rebounding rate.  

Missi is athletic and has promising upside, but every night it seems an opposing big is getting the best of him.

Here is the game log of opposing centres with their rebounding averages in brackets:

Kessler – 13 rebounds (11.5)

Gafford – 12 rebounds (6.3)

Vucevic – 15 rebounds (10.3)

Porzingis – 11 rebounds (7.1)

Ayton – 13 rebounds (10.2)

Gobert – 14 rebounds (10.2)

It’s quite a robust track-record.

Zach Edey is the opposing big man tonight against New Orleans.

He’s underwhelmed of late and might be the exception.

FanDuel currently has him at plus-money to go over 7.5 rebounds.

He’s hit that in just 1-of-10 games this month.

I encourage you to monitor it tonight and consider Mark Williams tomorrow should Edey show life against his fellow rookie, Missi.

The Pick: Mark Williams over rebounds vs. New Orleans