Setting The Pick – Three defences to exploit

We’re two weeks into the season and any preseason edges you may have had are all but gone. 

FanDuel has caught up, the market is following suit, and now it’s time to look for new wrinkles in our small sample of five games.  

Over the first two weeks, here are some honourable mentions of overachieving performers:  

• Anthony Davis has clearly overachieved as the focal point of head coach, JJ Redick’s new Lakers offence, up to 30.6 ppg 
• Ivica Zubac was a known breakout candidate, but few would’ve predicted 19.2 ppg and 13.2 rpg through five games 
• Chet Holmgren is firmly in the Most Improved Player conversation scoring 6.0 more ppg this season versus last 

If you’re hoping to back these standout performers, be warned that FanDuel’s traders are also adjusting.  

As we approach the third week of the season, here are three vulnerable defences to capitalize on that might not be as obvious. 

BIG MAN SCORING VS. TORONTO 

As competitive as the Raptors have looked through five games, they currently own the league’s worst defensive rating.  

Credit to Toronto for going 4-1 against the spread and keeping games close (outside of their opening night blowout).  

But if you cherry-pick the track records of opposing big men over these first few losses, you’ll note that they all performed above their season averages.  

• Nick Richards – 24 points, 14 rebounds (13.5 ppg, 11.8 rpg) 
• Nikola Jokic – 40 points, 10 rebounds (31.5 ppg, 12.3 rpg) 
• Rudy Gobert – 15 points, 12 rebounds (9.5 ppg, 11.3 rpg) 
• Evan Mobley – 25 points, 9 rebounds (19.2 ppg, 8.2 rpg) 

Jakob Poeltl on his own simply isn’t enough to contain opposing frontcourts.  

Toronto allows the seventh-most points in the paint and second-chance points while also being league-worst in points off turnovers.  

The Raptors play Davis and the Lakers Friday night in a tough schedule spot.  

Toronto’s on the first of a back-to-back while Los Angeles is looking to avenge a 24-point beatdown in Cleveland.  

Davis is projected to score 27.5 points tonight and is worth monitoring.  

Blowout potential is likely his biggest risk.  

DYNAMIC PLAYMAKERS VS. MILWAUKEE 

The Bucks are one of the most underachieving teams to opening the 2024-25 NBA season.  

They’re 1-4 ATS and have only beaten a Philadelphia squad that played without Joel Embiid and recently signed Paul George.  

Their most concerning loss came against the Brooklyn Nets, a team that FanDuel had favoured to own the league’s worst record.  

What’s been consistent for them over these five games is their inability to contain opposing playmakers.  

All those who fit the mold of quick, dynamic shot creators have put together big stat lines.  

• Ja Morant – 26 points, 14 assists (20.4 ppg, 9.4 apg) 
• Cam Thomas – 32 points, 2 assists (27.4 ppg, 2.6 apg) 
• Coby White – 35 points, 5 assists (19.0 ppg, 4.4 apg) 

The only reason Tyrese Maxey didn’t make this list?  

The Bucks were able to overload on him given Philly’s depleted depth. 

Milwaukee is currently seventh-worst in defensive rating and continues to be a drop-heavy defence that sits back in the paint.  

Guards who can score in the mid-range are particularly dangerous for this defence.  

Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, and Jalen Brunson are all players on the upcoming schedule who can exploit this defence.  

THREE-POINT SPECIALISTS VS. ATLANTA 

For all of Trae Young’s offensive talents, he continues to be a defensive liability treating opposing guards to an all-you-can-eat feast.  

Through five games, the Hawks allow both the highest shooting percentage from deep (42.3 per cent) and volume (43.2 attempts per game).  

Every opposing point guard has come in and made them pay from beyond the arc.  

• Cam Thomas – 7-of-13 (2.8 3PM, 35.0 per cent) 
• LaMelo Ball – 9-of-14 (4.8 3PM, 39.6 per cent) 
• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – 3-for-8 (2.3 3PM, 27.3 per cent) 
• Jordan Poole – 6-for-8 and 4-for-9 (5.0 3PM, 57.1 per cent) 

Recently acquired Dyson Daniels looked like a great defensive fit for this starting unit but now that he’s sidelined with a hip injury, Atlanta becomes even more vulnerable. 

They’ve also lost Bogdan Bogdanovic and Kobe Bufkin to injuries forcing Young to log heavier minutes than usual in the coming weeks. 

Atlanta’s third-fastest pace also opens the door for more scoring.  

If the Hawks were a bad offence and getting consistently blown out, this betting lean would be more volatile. 

Luckily they’re a competent offence and will likely stay in games to afford all the three-point attempts.  

Sacramento and Boston head into town during the upcoming week and are two teams worth targeting for three-point props.